As someone who lives in what could be described as the backyard of Purdue University, my personal bias wants Raheem Mostert to lead the 49ers RB room ahead of Trey Sermon. Why would I not want to see a Boilermaker be the lead dog over the Buckeye? This piece will discuss why each player will get work, and who will be the better in fantasy football this year. But the simple reason why neither will be the guy is Kyle Shanahan.
The Shanahan Effect
Looking back at Shanahan’s career as both a head coach and an offensive coordinator, you see a trend of him using multiple running backs almost every year. If look over Shanahan’s pedigree all the way back to 2008, there are four seasons that you could argue had a surefire lead. 2008 had Steve Slaton with 268 rushes while Ahman Green had only 74 attempts. 2012 and 2013 both had Alfred Morris leading the way, with Robert Griffin III having the second most rushes. 2015 showcased Devonta Freeman as the lead with Tevin Coleman as the backup with a split of 265 rushes to 87 rushes.
In his 13 years as an OC/HC, Shanahan has run a running back by committee in nine of those seasons. Most recently was over half a decade ago, and clear across the country! The Shanahan Effect means it is more likely for these two RBs to split carries, but the question is which one gets the most carries?
The Mostert Argument
Raheem Mostert has been just a guy for most of his career, but that all changed with Shanahan. In the past four years with Shanahan, he’s played 44 games with 281 rushing attempts for 1,584 yards, and 11 touchdowns. Over 240 of those carries and 10 of the TDs came in the past two seasons. However, Mostert only played eight games last year due to injury.
If you prorate his 16 game pace for 2020, he would have 208 carries, 1,042 yards, and four TDs. If you average the 2019 season with the prorated 2020 seasons, Mostert would dominate with 172.5 carries, 907 rushing yards, and six TDs. Not to mention the 23 receptions for 246 yards and two TDs he would average. Even in a RBBC team like the 49ers, that is fantastic numbers for someone Sleeper has projected in the 10th round of 12 team leagues. If Mostert stays healthy, he is a solid bet to lead this backfield.
The Sermon Argument
The young buck is trying to take over as the lead back in San Francisco. In college between Oklahoma University and Ohio State, Sermon averaged roughly 114 rushing attempts for 744 yards. That was against two different Power 5 conferences. Let’s not forget, he played on the OSU team that beat Clemson in the playoffs last year. Plus, he has fresh legs and solid agility. The San Fran Special of late has been speedy guys with plenty of body to gain yards after contact. All 6’0″, 215lbs. of Sermon screams a player comparison to someone like Adrian Peterson or Chris Ivory. The kind of guy who may not need to catch passes, but will break tackles will enough to gain yards.
Who’s the Player to Have?
In fantasy football redraft leagues, the easy answer is both players should be rostered. Mostert has been a great fantasy option over the past two years, but he gets injured often. Not to mention, he’s already 29 years old. To say he’s on the back 9 of his career is an understatement. However, Sermon is still going to be the 1B to Mostert unless Mostert gets injured.
Look for Sermon to get work though. Like I said, Shanahan runs a split backfield and the 49ers have been a top-3 team for rushing attempts the past two years. If Mostert and Sermon combine for over 300 carries, I expect Mostert to have 60-65% of the workload. Both RBs could end the 2021 fantasy football season as solid RB2s.
Hunter Greene
Hunter started writing for The League Winners in the summer of 2021. Hunter has been playing fantasy football for about a decade, starting in middle school. Now he’s a professional landscaper and avid Colts and Purdue fan.