As usual, sleep has been elusive lately. Maybe it was the fact that nearly every team had a major player sit this past weekend. Perhaps it was the resulting terrible fantasy football week I had; my worst of the season with an 8-17 overall record across all my fantasy teams. Maybe it was my personal life that had me caring for a hospitalized (but now on the mend) wife and hosting incoming family members to help us work through the surgeries and upcoming rehab.
Whatever the reason, I’m exhausted. What a week…
What I’m also sick and tired of is losing big at picking my sleepers. With a sub-30% hit-rate to date, it’s been a frustrating exercise all season. However, my criteria is admittedly harsh – requiring 15+ PPR points from a player to be considered a hit – but, in the end, we want guys who will legitimately help you win your week. Otherwise, what are we doing here.
Before we get into who to target this week, we’ve got to look back at last week. How did I do picking Week 9 sleepers? How did they do in your fantasy lineups? Let’s find out…
Week 9 Review
Win
Kenyan Drake, RB – Drake finished Week 10 as the RB11; even with Josh Jacobs handling 13 carries and catching 4 balls for close to 100 total yards. Drake himself came away with exactly 100 total yards and 6 receptions. This will do in PPR, even if he couldn’t find the end zone. 16 PPR points will get me a W on this call.
Losses
Taysom Hill, QB – Hill didn’t even start at QB and played very little. Sean Payton elected to go with Trevor Siemian. It wasn’t a terrible choice, especially considering Hill was possibly still recovering from a concussion a few weeks back. Siemian ended up just the QB15 on the week. 250 yards passing and 2 TDs is a serviceable effort, but it wasn’t one that would’ve netted me a W if I chose him here anyway. I still believe Payton will make the switch to Hill eventually. none of that matters for last week, though.
Rashod Bateman, WR – Bateman continues to see the volume we like for fantasy football. He racked up eight targets and finished with a 5 for 52 line. Still, the lack of TDs is hurting his upside and sleeper value at present. In a game that the Ravens scored 34 points, Bateman saw just one red zone target. That was also his first of the season. That’s not the usage we want to see, especially when Lamar Jackson throws three touchdowns on the day.
Tyler Conklin, TE – This one just didn’t happen. Conklin finished as the PPR TE15 this week. This was brought on in part by the return of big names like George Kittle and Darren Waller to the top-5. Pat Freiermuth would’ve gotten me the W here, as he caught two TDs and finished with 21.3 points. Conklin still saw seven targets, but a 5 for 45 line does nothing for us if there is no touchdown attached. Another big L here.
One for four again. If I’m a professional baseball player… uh, yeah… nevermind. Not great. 10-26 on the season is equal to a 27.7% hit rate on these sleepers. I’m not upset about it, but I’d like to see it closer to 40%. Here’s to finding the right guys in the season’s second half.
As a reminder, here’s how we’re defining fantasy football sleepers and wins and losses
- Players ranked outside of the QB12, RB30, WR40 and TE12 for a given week based on the weekly Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) on Fantasy Pros are eligible to be chosen. That’s roughly guys at or beyond the consensus top 100.
- For a player to ‘hit’, I’m requiring a finish inside the top 60 overall, though TEs are special so we’ll say a top 6 TE if not within the top 60. That means the player was a serviceable starting piece that contributed meaningfully to your lineup, and he also exceeded expectations in a significant way. Historically, he put up at least 15 PPR points.
Shulman’s Sleepers: Week 10
QB: Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders
Fantasy Pros ECR: QB13
Derek Carr had a dud of a Week 9 against a good-looking Giants D on the road. Given the turmoil on the team over the past few weeks, it’s not that surprising. What is surprising is that it came after a bye. But Week 10 begins a stretch of nice matchups for the Raiders’ signal caller, as a struggling Kansas City defensive unit comes to town.
Last year Carr had two excellent games against the Chiefs, nearly sweeping the season series with a 4-point loss in Week 10. In those games, he recorded two of his top-3 passer ratings on the year. He averaged 311 yards, 3 TDs and 1 INT per game in those contests. That was against a KC defense that looked much better than this year’s version has thus far.
In 2021, the Chiefs give up the second-most fantasy points to QBs, and third-most to TEs. That should play right into Carr’s hands with a healthy Darren Waller and an ascending Foster Moreau. With DeSean Jackson now in the fold, it’s wheels up for the passing attack in what should be another high-scoring affair.
Carr is a smash play for me this week. He’s got top-6 upside, but should be a safe QB1 in fantasy football nonetheless.
Prediction: 280 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT; 2 rushes, 10 yards = 22.2 points
RB: Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys
Fantasy Pros ECR: RB31
Dallas gets the Atlanta Falcons at home this week, and Zeke has a bruised knee. With a bad loss to the Denver Broncos last week, a massive bounce-back game should be in store for the Cowboys and all of their offensive weapons, including Tony Pollard.
Since their bye two weeks ago, Pollard has seen his opportunity dip slightly. The Atlanta Falcons are just an average unit overall, while the Cowboys continue to attempt to get their pass-catchers healthy. I expect the Cowboys to run up the score and look to run out the clock in the fourth quarter. With a slightly banged-up Zeke, that could mean a whole lot of Pollard.
Either way, Pollard’s a nice flex play in fantasy football with four teams on bye this week. Despite a few down weeks, I’m betting on him finding paydirt in this one.
Prediction: 8 carries, 40 yards; 3 receptions, 25 yards; 1 total TD = 15.5 points
WR: Russell Gage, Atlanta Falcons
Fantasy Pros ECR: WR41
Russell Gage has been pretty steady since returning from injury after the Falcons’ Week 6 bye. Though he did serve up a zero target effort in Week 8 against a stingy Carolina Panthers defensive unit.
In Weeks 7 and 9, Gage has accumulated 11 receptions on 14 targets for 131 yards and a touchdown. It’s a nice line. With Calvin Ridley out for the foreseeable future, it should be this nice more often than not.
Against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 10, Gage should once again find room to roam. He should soak up the targets that don’t end up in the direction of Kyle Pitts or Cordarrelle Patterson. I’m betting on a big day for Gage. The Falcons will need to score to keep pace with a Cowboys offense looking to bust out after being held in check last week.
Prediction: 6 receptions, 80 yards, 1 TD = 20.0 points
TE: Noah Fant, Denver Broncos
Fantasy Pros ECR: TE14
I wanted to go back to the well with Jacksonville’s Dan Arnold, but he’s sitting at the TE12 this week; just out of range. So, I’ll pivot to Noah Fant with the assumption that he has fully recovered from the positive COVID test last week.
Fant is in a smash matchup for fantasy football, at home against an Eagles squad that just can’t seem to cover TEs. Albert Okwuegbunam could take a few targets away, but I’m banking on Fant’s ultra-athleticism to make a play and find the end zone in a game his team can win. After a big offensive output and huge W on the road in Dallas last week, I’d expect another relatively easy path to points this week.
Fire up Fant as a top TE option. I’ll even hedge and say Albert O is a top streaming option if Fant can’t.
Prediction: 5 receptions, 60 yards, 1 TD = 17.0 points
Here’s to a better week all around in week 10. Good luck to all! Good things are coming… I can feel it.
Jeremy Shulman
Jeremy is an avid football fan from New York who lives in Amsterdam and roots for the Patriots. This walking contradiction has played fantasy football for over than 20 years. He is now a Senior Dynasty Writer at The League Winners. In his spare time, he writes and edits professionally.