Wow. I managed more sleep this week than most. Maybe it was the stress. Maybe it was the intense freak sickness I developed. Perhaps it was the fact that fantasy football players are mostly doing what they should be doing now that we have the data to support our decision-making.
Whatever the reason, I’ve been able to lay my head down and catch some Z’s while also catching a few Ws on my fantasy teams and with my sleeper picks. It’s been a good couple of weeks. As we know, there’s no rest for the weary. I’ma keep at it, scouring the Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) to bring you some of the more overlooked players on the week.
But first, how’d I do last week? Let’s take a look:
Week 10 Review
Wins
Derek Carr, QB (#28 overall) – Even though Carr only put up 19.24 fantasy points on the week, I’m counting this one as a win. Why? He finished the week as the QB7, exceeding his ECR by six slots. He was a .7 points away from finishing as the QB4 in Week 10. Yes, Carr’s Raiders got blown out on Sunday night by a resurgent Chiefs squad. Yes, he didn’t look all that great in reality. Still, this one’s a W for me given few were better (though Trevor Siemian and Mac Jones were better sleeper calls to be sure).
Tony Pollard, RB (#49 overall) – Not only did Pollard finish as the PPR RB17 in fantasy football in Week 10, but he eclipsed the all-important 15 point threshold. Pollard finished with 15.8 points without scoring a TD. That’s an impressive amount of work for the young buck. Especially considering his running-mate Ezekiel Elliott finished as RB8 on the week with over 20 points. Huge W here. If you start Pollard like I did in a lot of spots, you probably had a good week.
Losses
Russell Gage, WR – Since the Falcons’ bye in Week 6, Gage has been the PPR WR15 (Week 7) and the WR20 (Week 9) in fantasy football. He’s also had two duds, posting donuts in Weeks 8 and 10. I can’t explain what’s happening in this Atlanta offense. Gage should be viable in future weeks, with Cordarrelle Patterson nursing a potential multi-week injury. But in Week 10, Gage did absolutely nothing yet again. What a letdown. And you can’t spell letdown without an L.
Noah Fant, TE – I nearly went back to Tyler Conklin, but choose him in Week 9. I’m on record as wanting to pick Dan Arnold, but he was barely out of reach at ECR TE12. Instead, I ended up with Fant. Though he scored almost 11 PPR points, he only finished as the TE10. His teammate, Albert Okwuegbunam, outgained him with 77 total yards. Fant had a nice target volume and good production, but he didn’t find the end zone. It’s an unfortunate L, but it’s an L nonetheless.
2-2 for the second time in three weeks. Maybe I’m getting the hang of this sleeper pick thing. Better late than never, I guess. Now, I’m 12-28 on the season. I’m finally batting .300. I’m shooting for 40% when it’s all said and done. There’s plenty more work to do. Let’s get it…
As a reminder, here’s how we’re defining fantasy football sleepers and wins and losses:
- Players ranked outside of the QB12, RB30, WR40 and TE12 for a given week based on the weekly Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) on Fantasy Pros are eligible to be chosen. That’s roughly guys at or beyond the consensus top 100.
- For a player to ‘hit’, I’m requiring a finish inside the top 60 overall, though TEs are special so we’ll say a top 6 TE if not within the top 60. That means he was a serviceable starting piece that contributed meaningfully to your lineup, and he also exceeded expectations in a significant way. Historically, he put up at least 15 PPR points.
Now that all that is settled, let’s get to sleeping. I mean, let’s get into the sleep men. Uh… let’s… uh… well… let’s get into it.
Shulman’s Sleepers: Week 11
QB: Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers
Fantasy Pros ECR: QB15
I just wrote up a whole piece on Mac Jones as my sleeper in this spot… then I deleted it. The problem is, volume is always going to be iffy with Jones given the Pats ground game and the fact that he doesn’t run. So, despite Ron Rivera’s defensive genius and familiarity with Cam, I’m still rolling with Newton this week.
I get it. You’re not completely sure that he’s baaaack. Truth is, neither am I. What I am sure of is that the league’s worst passing D just lost one of its best players in Chase Young. I’m gonna trust that Matt Rhule and his staff will put Cam Newton in the best positions to succeed this week, given that the defense is so strong for Carolina. That should mean running the ball with their stable of McCaffrey, Hubbard and Newton. Look for Cam’s dual-threat ability around the goal line to consistently punch it into the end zone. This one has blowout potential.
Newton’s passing chops are likely still suspect, but two touchdowns on the ground will get him over the hump and into viable QB1 territory this week. Don’t sleep.
Prediction: 160 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT; 12 rushes, 80 yards, 2 TDs = 28.4 points
RB: Adrian Peterson, Tennessee Titans
Fantasy Pros ECR: RB39
This is the game you’re rostering Adrian Peterson for. Despite D’Onta Foreman stealing touches last week and looking good, Peterson still saw short yardage and goal line work. The line looked like they were bullying an excellent New Orleans front last week. I’d expect more room for Peterson to work this week.
He’ll split the workload, but AP should find his way into the end zone at least once this week. Houston has looked surprisingly decent on the defensive end of the ball at times this year, but they’re still ranked in the top-10 (and nearly inside the top-5) across the board when giving up fantasy points to the different position groups this season. I’m betting on a sizeable chunk of running plays in this one that will see both Foreman and Peterson thrive.
Both look like solid sleepers this week to me, but I like Peterson’s TD upside better. Gimme the future HOFer in a plus matchup this week.
Prediction: 14 carries, 50 yards; 1 receptions, 10 yards; 2 TDs = 19.0 points
WR: Michael Gallup, Dallas Cowboys
Fantasy Pros ECR: WR41
I don’t love the potential 6th fiddle in the Dallas passing game, but the truth is that anyone and everyone is viable in what should be the shoot out we were promised at the beginning of the season. With both the Cowboys and Chiefs healthy, I’d expect fireworks in this one.
I’m betting heavy on a TD from Michael Gallup this week, as there should be a fair amount to go around. He looked excellent in his return last week, though the volume still left fantasy football managers wanting more. My deepest fantasy wish is for Gallup to walk and find a team that will value him as the exceptional NFL WR2 that he seems to be; but that doesn’t help us this year as CeeDee, Amari, Zeke, and even Shultz and Pollard could all receive more targets than him on a weekly basis.
I like Gallup to make the most of this matchup, and find the end zone. Plus, the other options this week don’t look great.
Prediction: 4 receptions, 60 yards, 1 TD = 16.0 points
TE: Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears
Fantasy Pros ECR: TE17
Once again, Dan Arnold ranks as TE12. So once again, he is just out of reach. Instead, let’s pivot to Cole Kmet, who has had volume on his side ever since Justin Fields has been allowed to develop as the Bears QB1.
Over the last month, Kmet has averaged over six targets per game. He appears to have developed a rapport with Fields. The rookie looked Kmet’s way eight times before last week’s bye. Now that David Montgomery is back and healthy, the Bears O could be firing on all cylinders. It’s hard to be confident in the Chicago Bears, but Fields looked great in Week 9 and the bye should only help his progression.
Kmet is a dart-throw option to be sure, but you could do a lot worse. Given his matchup against the Ravens, who surrender the eighth-most fantasy football points to the position, he should find some space allowing Fields to find him.
Prediction: 5 receptions, 45 yards, 1 TD = 15.5 points
I’m 5 for 12 over the last three weeks, so Imma rest easy ‘til Sunday. Good luck in the week ahead.
Jeremy Shulman
Jeremy is an avid football fan from New York who lives in Amsterdam and roots for the Patriots. This walking contradiction has played fantasy football for over than 20 years. He is now a Senior Dynasty Writer at The League Winners. In his spare time, he writes and edits professionally.