Fantasy Football 2021: Shulman’s Sleepers – Week 12

I’m still not getting much sleep these days. Reality has trumped fantasy football and it’s all hands on deck as my wife recovers from a couple of knee surgeries over multiple restless weeks. Thankfully, she is home and on the mend; so it’s back to the grind for me, refreshed or otherwise. 

Last week had potential, but not much came through. It was a disappointment given my recent heater. I’ll take the one take I got right to the construction site and look to build off it this week.

This here is crunch time, ladies and gents; with just three weeks left to make the playoffs. Hopefully, you’re still alive and kickin’ in your fantasy football leagues… so let’s get right into it. 

Week 11 Review

Wins

Cam Newton, QB (#8 overall) – Cam was electric last week, finishing tied for QB4 on the weekend against his former head coach Ron Rivera and the Washington Football Team. Rivera still won the real game, but Cam likely won your fantasy football matchup if you played him. Despite just 46 rushing yards (which is less than we’ve come to expect from Newton), two passing TDs and a rushing score was more than enough to get the job done. With Miami on tap, it might be another big week for Newton owners ahead. W.

Losses

Adrian Peterson, RB – Well… damn. AP didn’t get nearly as much run as I expect, even though there wasn’t much evidence to expect that he would. I’m working on my confirmation bias, but few foresaw Dontrell Hilliard getting the amount of work he did. We didn’t expect the Titans to be down all game or lose to the Texans, and we certainly didn’t expect Ryan Tannehill to throw the ball to fourth-stringers 52 times. Alas, Peterson was cut shortly after the game ended, so it’s clearly wasn’t a game script issue. Big L here.

Michael Gallup, WR – The Dallas offense couldn’t get going at all against Kansas City, as they clearly missed a COVID-positive Amari Cooper and a concussed CeeDee Lamb. Instead, it was TE Dalton Schultz and the backs who ate up the yards in this one. 10 targets is great, but 5 for 44 is not what you want to see from the de facto WR1. It’s another L.  

Cole Kmet, TE – Between Justin Fields’ injury, a Darnell Mooney explosion and a Jimmy Graham sighting, there just wasn’t any room for Kmet to get his in this one. Finishing as the TE41 is one thing. Finishing as the TE2 on your own team is another. Graham only caught two balls for 25 yards, but Kmet only managed half those totals. In a game Chicago barely lost to the Ravens, it’s a disappointment despite a tough matchup.

1 for 4 this week means I’m 13-31 on the season. With a .295 hit rate, I need to pick it up over these final few weeks to make my sleeper season matter. Time to get to work.

As a reminder, here’s how we’re defining sleepers and wins and losses

1. Players ranked outside of the QB12, RB30, WR40 and TE12 for a given week based on the weekly Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) on Fantasy Pros are eligible to be chosen. That’s roughly guys at or beyond the consensus top 100.
2. For a player to ‘hit’, I’m requiring a finish inside the top 60 overall, though TEs are special so we’ll say a top 6 TE if not within the top 60. That means he was a serviceable starting piece that contributed meaningfully to your lineup, and he also exceeded expectations in a significant way. Historically, he put up at least 15 PPR points.

Shulman’s Sleepers: Week 12

QB: Tyrod Taylor, Houston Texans

Fantasy Pros ECR: QB16

Yes. I’m running with the Texans QB this week because I expect him to be running all over the Jets defense. While head coach Robert Saleh is no slouch, his unit has been, well, slouch-y. With fewer and fewer running backs rostered by the week, Taylor should continue to find more opportunities to run. 

In a huge upset win over the Titans last week, Taylor went 14 for 24 through the air for 107 yards and no TDs. But it was his 6 rushing attempts for 28 yards and two touchdowns that saved his week. The two rushing scores cannot be relied on week in and week out. Still, Tennessee is an above-average unit on the defensive side of the ball, so it’s great to see him produce a meaningful fantasy football game as a back-end QB1. This week, he gets a Jets unit that has given up a ton while the game with be played in Houston and the only running backs on the roster have exceptional hands. 

I’m expecting an even bigger week from Tyrod Taylor in Week 12. I’m betting he cuts his ECR in half this week. 

Prediction: 200 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT; 8 rushes, 40 yards, 1 TD  = 24.0 points

RB: Rex Burkhead, Houston Texans

Fantasy Pros ECR: RB42

I guess I’m all-in on the Texans in a game they may not even win. But as a Patriot fan, I’ve seen first-hand what Rex Burkhead can do with the opportunity. With Phillip Lindsay now gone, that opportunity has arrived. 

Burkhead saw 18 touches last week (all on the ground) as the Titans trailed most of the way. That was good enough to earn him the plus-side of a 50/50 split with clear-cut pass-catching back David Johnson. Even if Burkhead remains the early-down banger, he’s still got pass-catching chops while the red zone looks are most definitely in play. Against a D giving up the most fantasy football points in the league to running backs, I think both backs will eat in this one. 

I’ll temper my expectations through the air, but Burkhead should find room to roam on the ground this week.

Prediction: 16 carries, 60 yards; 2 receptions, 10 yards; 1 TD = 15.0 points

WR: Laviska Shenault, Jacksonville Jaguars

Fantasy Pros ECR: WR45

Either I’m a glutton for punishment… or I’m a genius. While I’m hoping on the latter, it’s more likely that the former is true. But, hey, maybe both can be true this week as the Jags face off against a terrible defense at home with very few weapons remaining on offense. 

Thankfully for Jacksonville, James Robinson looks like he’ll be ready to go this week despite being limited in practice. However the same can’t be said for Jamal Agnew, who suffered a season-ending hip injury that earned him a spot on IR. With touches now opening up in the Jags passing offense and defenses likely keying on lone-bright spot Dan Arnold, Laviska Shenault has to find some open holes in the D to give the Jag a chance against the lowly Falcons this week. 

It’s a gamble, but the volume should come. With volume, comes TDs… at least against a terrible D. 

Prediction: 5 receptions, 40 yards; 3 carries, 20; 1 TD = 17.0 points

TE: Logan Thomas, Washington Football Team

Fantasy Pros ECR: TE25

Logan Thomas hasn’t played a meaningful snap in two months thanks to a balky hamstring. He may not even be able to suit up this week, though the expectation is that he’ll be ready for a Monday night showdown with the Seattle Seahawks. Assuming he plays, Thomas is in a smash spot. 

The 3-7 Seahawks looked lost without Russell Wilson behind the helm. Now that he’s back, they still look that way. To me, it seems that Wilson has come back too soon from injury. He just hasn’t looked himself these past two weeks; though the Arizona defense had something to do with that last week. But it’s the Seattle D that has been the most concerning. The unit is top-5 in the league at giving up fantasy football points to RBs and TEs. They haven’t been great against quarterbacks, either. With Thomas healthy as the passing game’s #2 or, at worst, #3 option and Taylor Heinicke slinging well of late, it looks like a solid target share is coming his way to help balance this offense. 

DeAndre Carter has come on lately and Cam Sims scored last week. Regardless, Thomas should assume his normal target-hog role.

Prediction: 5 receptions, 55 yards, 1 TD = 16.5 points

That’s all he wrote, folks. Here’s to another week of success and some much needed rest for the weary. Good luck to all!