Fantasy Football 2021: Shulman’s Sleepers – Week 15

Sometimes it can feel like the deck is stacked against you. Like the universe is conspiring to topple your well-laid plan. Like your entire house of cards is on the verge of complete collapse.

That’s kinda how the last month has felt for me personally, as my wife recovers from a devastating knee injury. Still, we’ve somehow managed to make it out of the woods and find some sense of normalcy of late. 

With that normalcy has come regular sleep, and my regularly irregular patterns related directly to being an insane (American) football fan living in Europe. Recently, I’ve been getting my sleep anywhere I can take it; sleep off a few late night Sundays during some extended lunch breaks on Mondays. It’s not ideal, but it’s what is needed to avoid losing my metaphorical balance. 

But, regardless of what’s going on with my sleep schedule, I’ve been able to hit on some fantasy football sleepers along the way. Hopefully you have to. Let’s see how it all went down last week.

Week 14 Review

Wins

Melvin Gordon (#22 overall) – We all want Javonte Williams to be a thing. He is based on the talent he displays with the opportunity he’s given. Thing is, Gordon is still seeing half of that opportunity – and doing similar things with it.

Gordon was the fantasy football RB7 on the week while Williams was RB9. This is a team that understands their strengths and plays to them; earning a much-needed W against the lowly Lions in the process. The blowout was somewhat expected, but the Gordon fade was a huge surprise for me. I’ll gladly take the W here.

Losses

Cam Newton, QB – I will take the blame on this call for sure – but first I’m gonna blame Matt Rhule. Newton has certainly been suspect in his starts this season. The Panthers have been trying to win games, but benching Cam, then benching his replacement PJ Walker before re-benching Cam is some next level coaching incompetence.

I won’t pretend to know why all that occurred. Newton looked pretty awful nearly all afternoon, but 23 passes and uninspired play-calling against one of the league’s worst defenses in the Atlanta Falcons was a big reason for my L here. The other reason was trusting Newton in the first place. Ugh.

Laquon Treadwell, WR – The fantasy football WR46 again had enough volume to matter, but refused to find the end zone; as the entire Jags team failed to score a single point on Sunday. 4 for 68 on 6 targets is what we like to see (and what’s we’ve come to expect from Treadwell lately), but he remains scoreless on the season. It’s hard to put my faith in the Jags offense, and I got burned again for expecting more than I should have. I’d like to say this won’t happen again, but it might. I’m out here learning lessons I should have already learned weeks ago. Massive L here.

Gerald Everett, TE – Everett scored and was the fantasy football TE10 on the week. That’s a huge improvement from his expected output, but not enough to hit on sleeper territory based on the criteria below. In truth, the 2 for 15 line is a surprise given his target-hog status over the past month.

Tyler Lockett and Rashaad Penny went off against one of the league’s worst defenses on paper, though they have been somewhat tough in spurts throughout each game. With Will Dissly collecting 38 yards and LB Nick Bellore collecting his yearly target, it wasn’t meant to be for Everett this week. L #3.

 

I’m now 16-40 on the season, which equates to a 28.5% hit rate. It looks like 40% might be a pipedream, sad to say. Turns out the fantasy football ECR is a pretty damn good tool.

As always, here’s how we’re defining fantasy football sleepers and wins and losses

1. Players ranked outside of the QB12, RB30, WR40 and TE12 for a given week based on the weekly Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) on Fantasy Pros are eligible to be chosen. That’s roughly guys at or beyond the consensus top 100.
2. For a player to ‘hit’, I’m requiring a finish inside the top 60 overall, though TEs are special so we’ll say a top 6 TE if not within the top 60. That means he was a serviceable starting piece that contributed meaningfully to your lineup, and he also exceeded expectations in a significant way. Historically, he put up at least 15 PPR points.

With all the formalities now aside, let’s stack up the cups once again for the playoff run.

Shulman’s Sleepers: Week 15

QB: Justin Fields, Chicago Bears

Fantasy Pros ECR: QB18

Jimmy G is tempting here against a terrible Falcons D. I’m gonna roll with rookie Justin Fields this week after an impressive performance in Green Bay last week.

Fields has been far from perfect this season, but he’s the epitome of what we look for in a fantasy football quarterback. He has the ability to throw the ball around the field if the situation calls for it, but he can also rack up yards on the ground.

Last week, despite 2 interceptions, Fields threw for 224 yards and 2 TDs while running nine times for 74 yards. His totals saw him finish as the fantasy football QB10 on the week, his third QB1 performance in his last four games. It feels like the young signal caller is figuring it out. The Bears are letting him do just that while he collect points for our fantasy football squads. 

This week, I’ll be expecting much of the same from Fields against a Minnesota D that can’t stop much of anything these days.

Prediction: 210 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT; 10 rushes, 60 yards, 1 TD = 22.4 points

RB: Michael Carter, New York Jets

Fantasy Pros ECR: RB46 

There’s a lot of hesitation around Carter this week. It’s due to whether or not he’s fully ready to return, and carry the load on his balky ankle for the Jets. Fortunately, head coach Robert Salah has announced that Carter will be back in week 15, according to Jets team reporter Ethan Greenberg.

That means he’s far too low in fantasy football ECR. So, once again, I’m talking the easy road here. Last week it was Gordon against the Lions. This week, it’s Carter against the Dolphins; who are middle-of-the-road in terms of giving up fantasy points to RBs.

Carter was being utilized through the air as well as on the ground. He racked up 31 total targets during the four games he played after New York’s Week 6 bye, before he went down with injury. He was well on his way to a monster game against the Dolphins just before he was forced to leave the Week 11 matchup just after halftime. Now, Carter returns just in time to pick up where he left off. 

Carter’s PPR RB46 ECR is bound to skyrocket with news that he’ll play, but I’m gonna take the depressed ranking to the bank this week. He’s gonna roll in Miami.

Prediction: 15 carries, 70 yards; 3 receptions, 20 yards; 1 TD = 18.0 points

WR: KJ Osborn, Minnesota Vikings

Fantasy Pros ECR: WR41

I wrote up a ton on Odell Beckham for this week, forgetting about all the COVID craziness in LA. So, while he’s expected to be out, the other clear name for me this week outside of the top-40 PPR WRs is KJ Osborn.

Not only did I just discuss how the Vikings defense can’t stop anyone when selecting Fields as my QB sleeper; but the Bears defense is not great, either. In fact, they’ve allowed the 6^th most points to the WR position while being surprisingly stingy to TEs.

When you look at the LBs and safties on their roster, it’s not that surprising. My point here is that Tyler Conklin could have a tough day. If that holds true, Osborn should continue to soak up his 8 targets per game, like he has in Adam Thielen’s absence.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Osborn finds the end zone for the third straight week in this one. In fact, I’m counting on it in what could be a shootout in Week 15.

Prediction: 5 receptions, 60 yards, 1 TD = 17.0 points

TE: Ricky Seals-Jones, Washington Football Team

Fantasy Pros ECR: TE16

Roses are red, water is wet, and the Eagles are still terrible against TEs – bet. I’ll take the odds that RSJ finds paydirt this week. The Philly D has given up the most TDs to TEs (11) this season.

Ricky Seals-Jones only had one grab for 8 yards last week, as he only say half the snaps at the position. Rookie John Bates both out-snapped and out-gained Seals-Jones, making it hard to trust volume in this presumed and sudden rotation.

Bates has been steadily seeing work since Washington’s Week 9 bye, but it was believed that Seals-Jones would once again dominate work now that he is healthy and Thomas is out for the season. That didn’t materialize, but RSJ still has the best chance to find the end zone this week given his superior target share and production earlier in the season. 

It’s no slam dunk, but I’d expect Bates to take a back seat in the red zone this week, where RSJ should thrive. I’m betting on a healthier version of Seals-Jones to make it happen in a smash spot.

Prediction: 4 receptions, 55 yards, 1 TD = 15.5 points

The cup is definitely half-full this week, even as I’ve struggled to hit .500 recently. But it’s the playoffs, baby. My cup runneth over with my hope for a couple of fantasy football championships with my 13 playoff teams in hot pursuit of glory. 

Good luck to all in the same pursuit.