With Christmas fast approaching, it’s been hard to get any meaningful shut eye. There’s so much to do and even more to prepare to get everything ready. As I now run errands for two – given my wife’s ongoing recovery – everything is now made more difficult by a national lockdown here in the Netherlands.
It’s enough to drive any sane man to drink. And, as a drunk man shouldn’t drive, it’s just enough. I’ve had it. My sanity is waning. Bah humbug.
Of course, the fantasy football season isn’t helping one bit. Week 15 made alcohol a must come Sunday evening. With many of our most reliable studs injured, ill, or incompetent, managers were left holding the bag with the sobering realization that they wouldn’t be holding the bag come championship time.
I’m one of such manager. Though thankfully, I have six teams still left alive after five went down this past weekend. Not exactly a ringing endorsement for my sleeper calls, but if you aren’t interested there’s no way you would’ve gotten this far to begin with.
So, let’s see what happened during the week that, at least to my mind, never was.
Week 15 Review
Wins
Justin Fields, QB (#35 overall) – It was a strange week to be sure as Fields somehow finished as the QB10. Though not exactly a smash W, I’ll take it. He finished well above his QB18 ECR despite only posting 16.9 points.
With just 1 total touchdown and 2 fumbles, Fields was far from the ideal reality QB. That much was evident in the 17-9 drubbing that the Bears endured at the hands of the Vikings; though a last-second TD made it much closer than it was throughout. For fantasy football, Fields was usable this week. I’ll take those wins however I can get them.
Losses
Michael Carter, RB – Carter was the RB53, posting just 20 yards on 9 total touches. Instead, it was Tevin Coleman who was much more effective on the ground; while QB Zach Wilson and WR Braxton Berrios scored the only rushing TDs for the Jets on the afternoon.
Back from his 3-game absence and given a vote of confidence from Robert Salah himself, Carter was a massive disappointment in what should have been a good spot to produce. Instead, he’s a big L. He’s someone I won’t consider starting for the rest of the fantasy football season unless absolutely necessary.
KJ Osborn, WR – The PPR WR55 was a complete bust this week, as the Bears inexplicably grew a secondary overnight. Though he caught all of his targets, 3 receptions for 21 yards weren’t nearly what fantasy football managers were hoping for.
To be fair to Osborn, he did collect 24% of Kirk Cousins’ total yardage on the day. The 87 passing yards against a beatable secondary was tough to foresee. If only we’d known Cousins would have the worst output of his career this week, we could’ve pivoted to another option. Another large L. L for large.
Ricky Seals-Jones, TE – RSJ burned me for the second week in a row. This time it was thanks in part to Washington’s QB room contracting COVID. Fourth-string option Garrett Gilbert took the helm in this one, which meant just 4 targets for 29 total yards for WFT’s starting TE.
There’s not much left to say for me with this choice. It was just a big pile of no at TE this week. Even against an atrocious Eagles D when it comes to covering tight ends. Ele numero tres.
It’s now 17-43 on the season for me. I’m not particularly proud of my 28.3% hit rate, but given the criteria I’m feeling okay with it. After all, playing against the experts is often a losing bet.
As a reminder, here’s how we’re defining fantasy football sleepers and wins and losses
- Players ranked outside of the QB12, RB30, WR40 and TE12 for a given week based on the weekly Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) on Fantasy Pros are eligible to be chosen. That’s roughly guys at or beyond the consensus top 100.
- For a player to ‘hit’, I’m requiring a finish inside the top 60 overall, though TEs are special so we’ll say a top 6 TE if not within the top 60. That means he was a serviceable starting piece that contributed meaningfully to your lineup, and he also exceeded expectations in a significant way. Historically, he put up at least 15 PPR points.
Despite some inconsistent weeks, I got visions of sugar plums dancing in my Week 16 fantasy football lineups. Let’s get it.
Shulman’s Sleepers: Week 16
QB: Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
Fantasy Pros ECR: QB25
It’s hard for me to love anything related to Jared Goff – in both reality and fantasy football – but the Detroit Lions have been balling lately. Dan Campbell is America’s sweetheart, and should be seriously considered for coach of the year, in my opinion.
As for Goff, his weapons have come alive and his offensive line has been holding down the fort. At this point, as much as it pains me to admit it, Goff is a borderline QB1 streaming option in the fantasy football playoffs.
Do I expect him to get there? That’s hard to say. Will it be difficult for a man who has thrown 3 TDS in two of his last three games to do it again against a team that can’t stop much of anything? Probably not.
It ain’t pretty, but not much has been over the past seven days. Hold your nose and play Goff this week. I doubt you’ll be disappointed.
Prediction: 270 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT; 2 rushes, 10 yards = 21.8 points
RB: Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys
Fantasy Pros ECR: RB33
Tony Pollard has been a fantasy football RB2 in each of his last five games played. He’s done this while scoring just 1 TD over that span. The takeaway is that the usage is there for Pollard to cash in as a sleeper this week. Especially since he’s surpassed the criteria in three of his last five opportunities.
In a game against the Washington Football Team at home where they can lock up the NFC East crown, the Cowboys should look to lean on the run game, if possible. If not possible, there’s always passing down work for the dual-threat back.
Pollard’s weekly snap share has settled in at around 40% lately. That’s resulted in an average of 9 carries and 3 receptions per game in his last five games. Although he missed the matchup against Washington two weeks ago, fill-in Corey Clement touched the ball 14 times for 46 scoreless yards; leaving plenty of meat on the bone in the process.
Washington doesn’t surrender a ton on the ground to backs, but they’ve been getting torched through the air all season. I expect Pollard gets his usual dose of touches and is once again as efficient as can be.
Prediction: 10 carries, 60 yards; 3 receptions, 25 yards; 1 total TD = 17.5 points
WR: Josh Reynolds, Detroit Lions
Fantasy Pros ECR: WR42
If Goff is bound to succeed this week, then it’ll have to be with multiple targets succeeding alongside him. Even with Jamaal Williams expected back and the running game finding success in recent weeks, I’ll bet that Josh Reynolds has yet another solid game.
In his last four games, Reynolds has finished as a the WR18, 32, 56 and 12 in fantasy football PPR leagues. That’s right, Reynolds was a WR1 last week with a 6/68/1 line against a tough Cardinals defense; albeit one susceptible to WR production. Still, his rapport with Goff leftover from their days with the Rams, is clear.
Now with TJ Hockenson sidelined and D’Andre Swift questionable to return after nearly a month, Reynolds should continue to see work in a winnable game for the could-be streaking Lions.
Reynolds has been great in three of his last four, while averaging 6 targets per game. I’m firing him up in my fantasy football leagues this week.
Prediction: 5 receptions, 60 yards, 1 TD = 17.0 points
TE: Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears
Fantasy Pros ECR: TE13
Justin Fields seems to be finding his footing, despite the entire offense struggling last week against Minnesota. Now nursing an ankle injury, a less-mobile Fields should mean more targets for his checkdown options.
Enter Cole Kmet, who has seen a steady diet of targets over the past month. Averaging 8 targets/game over the span, Kmet has twice finished as a fantasy football TE1 without recording a single TD. Now facing a Seattle D that has been poor against TEs all season and with no Jamal Adams, Kmet should see plenty of open field as he works open for Fields to get him the ball.
With Allen Robinson potentially out ineffective yet again, Kmet should be the #2 passing game option and a red zone threat.
I’m betting on Kmet’s usage to be high in this one, and that could easily result in his first TD of the season.
Prediction: 6 receptions, 45 yards, 1 TD = 16.5 points
We’re all hoping for a gift-wrapped W this holiday season to help us move on to the championship round. Here’s to a Merry Christmas to all and a Happier New Year, filled with chips and good cheer!
Jeremy Shulman
Jeremy is an avid football fan from New York who lives in Amsterdam and roots for the Patriots. This walking contradiction has played fantasy football for over than 20 years. He is now a Senior Dynasty Writer at The League Winners. In his spare time, he writes and edits professionally.