With Christmas now over and a New Year on the horizon, it’s often a period of reflection. In a typical fantasy football season, we’ve already enjoyed our championship victories and are beginning to look back at how it all went down.
But for 2021 and beyond, we’ll be fretting over our finals lineups further into bowl season thanks to the NFL’s extended schedule. With Covid currently wreaking havoc on our fantasy football start/sit decisions, it’s even more difficult to deal with.
You’re likely here because you’ve made it to fantasy’s final week, looking to win some coin and some prestige. It’s largely about pride this time of year, so you don’t want to sleep on some unsung heroes and miss a shot to meet with greatness. Instead of falling asleep at the wheel, crashing and burning your fantasy football hopes because you failed to pay attention, we need to remain vigilant and keep our eyes on the week 17 prize.
First, as always, let’s have a look at Week 16’s finishes first.
Week 16 Review
Wins
Crap.
Losses
Jared Goff, QB – Goff didn’t even play this week thanks to a late round of positive Covid testing. We’ll get to this game in a few paragraphs, but Tim Boyle couldn’t take advantage of a porous Falcons D like Goff could’ve, should’ve, and would’ve. Even with an inferior talent behind center, the fact that the Lions only lost this game by 4 points is an impressive feat. Regardless, that’s an L for me.
Tony Pollard, RB – The Cowboys absolutely went off in Week 16; but it was through the air with Dak leading the way instead of on the ground. By the time garbage time came around, Pollard was already taking it easy on the bench. He managed to touch the ball 10 times for 50 yards, but even a TD wouldn’t have helped him reach the 15 point threshold. Another L.
Josh Reynolds, WR – Damn. I was pretty certain that Reynolds would have a day. With ASRB already guaranteed volume and Timmy Boyle at the helm, there just wasn’t enough talent at QB to get two pass-catchers heavily involved. Had Reynolds played with Goff, this would’ve been a smash play. Instead, he caught just 2 of 7 targets for 36 scoreless yards. I’ll take the L yet again.
Cole Kmet, TE – Again, I was expecting a different QB to suit up in the middle of last week, but we ended up getting Nick Foles. That wasn’t too terrible in my eyes, as Foles has often targeted his TEs in the past. A 4 for 49 line is about what we’re used to seeing from Kmet anyway, but he once again did not find the end zone. Of course, Jimmy Graham vultured a TD for his third score of the season. Kmet did see an end zone target, but it was far too high for him to secure the catch. In the end, Graham finished as the PPR TE8, Kmet as the TE16. If Kmet catches that TD instead, he’s the TE4. Alas, it’s an L. I’m 4 for 4 this week. Great.
Whelp, that did not go as planned. Currently at 17-47 on the season with just one week left to go. I’m not finishing strong. My hit rate now stands at 26.5%. I’m looking for some excellent picks this week to help me climb as close to 30% as possible.
As a reminder, here’s how we’re defining sleepers and wins and losses
- Players ranked outside of the QB12, RB30, WR40 and TE12 for a given week based on the weekly Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) on Fantasy Pros are eligible to be chosen. That’s roughly guys at or beyond the consensus top 100.
- For a player to ‘hit’, I’m requiring a finish inside the top 60 overall, though TEs are special so we’ll say a top 6 TE if not within the top 60. That means he was a serviceable starting piece that contributed meaningfully to your lineup, and he also exceeded expectations in a significant way. Historically, he put up at least 15 PPR points.
Not a great week last week by any measure, but this week has some potential. I’ve got the undeserved confidence of a little kid during his first-ever Power Wheels ride right now; so I know it’s time to drop my selections for the season’s final days. Let’s jump in.
Shulman’s Sleepers: Week 17
QB: Taysom Hill, New Orleans Saints
Fantasy Pros ECR: QB14
Honestly, there are plenty of QBs outside the consensus top-12 that could finish as a QB1 this week in fantasy football; given the way the matchups have shaken out. I like Lance (QB14), Tua (QB16), and Mac (QB19), but I’m tolling with Taysom Hill because the man don’t miss.
In Hill’s 7 starts over the past two seasons, he has averaged 203 passing yards and 59 rushing yards per game; with almost 1 passing TD and 1 rushing TD per game. If Hill hits those averages this week against a Carolina defensive unit who can be susceptible to the run, he’ll once again flirt with a top-5 finish on the week.
The only concern for me is Taysom’s recovery after testing positive, since some players have struggled in their first action after sitting with Covid. In a must-win game to keep their hopes alive in the playoffs, I’d bet Sean Payton squeezes as much as possible out of Hill this week.
The Panthers will try, but I doubt they can stop the combo of Hill and Kamara in the backfield. With Taysom throwing the ball enough to keep most defenses honest, I’m banking on another big fantasy football performance from the 31-year old.
Prediction: 200 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT; 12 rushes, 70 yards, 1 TD = 23.0 points
RB: D’Andre Swift, Detroit Lions
Fantasy Pros ECR: RB44
It’s been ugly outside the top-30 at RB for most of the season, but this weekend is different. There are a lot of big names, and some lesser names who recently had big days in this range. I’m gonna go with one of the former, and fire up D’Andre Swift.
Now back from a shoulder injury that kept him out of action for a month, Swift is already getting a vote of confidence from head coach Dan Campbell. In fact, the only reason Swift is this low in fantasy football ECR is the presumption that his workload will be less than normal as he returns to form.
While that may be the case, he’s facing a Seattle D that been dreadful against the run all season. They have given up the third most fantasy points to the RB position on the year. With Jamaal Williams’ serviceable though uninspiring effort last week against the woeful Falcons, I’m sure Campbell and company will offer up as many touches as Swift can handle this week.
I’m of the mind that you have to start Swift this week no matter what. Get him in your fantasy football lineups and enjoy a productive outing, with the chance to explode if he’s a full-go.
Prediction: 10 carries, 50 yards; 3 receptions, 20 yards; 1 TD = 16.0 points
WR: Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Green Bay Packers
Fantasy Pros ECR: WR47
Even with a low-hanging fruit option like Cordarrelle Patterson at WR41 and last week’s PPR WR4 in Isaiah McKenzie here for the taking, I’m going with MVS for championship week.
Allen Lazard’s production last week may have some scared off of Valdes-Scantling, but I don’t have the same concerns. In MVS’s last four games played (three of which were played alongside Lazard), he saw and average of nearly 8 targets and 14.25 PPR points per game. He’s always a threat to catch a long TD from Aaron Rodgers, and Rodgers has shown more trust in the fourth-year wideout in recent weeks.
Oh, and the Packers will invite the Vikings to Lambeau this week. Last time they played, MVS torched them for a 4/123/1 line in Week 11.
I don’t really see how MVS doesn’t roll this weekend in Green Bay. I’m flexing him in my fantasy football lineups with confidence, especially in matchups where I’m the underdog.
Prediction: 4 receptions, 65 yards, 1 TD = 16.5 points
TE: Foster Moreau, Las Vegas Raiders
Fantasy Pros ECR: TE19
I really like TEs like Tyler Conkiln (TE17) and Cameron Brate (TE26) this week; but I’m going with Foster Moreau now that Darren Waller out for the remainder of the season.
Moreau has seen more usage over the last two weeks, as the Vegas offense has gotten (somewhat) back on track. Well, it’s at least looking normal; and Moreau’s back-to-back 65+ yard performances have a lot to do with that.
In the past two weeks against, Moreau has finished as the fantasy football PPR TE7 and TE9 without finding the end zone. Should he manage to hit paydirt this weekend against an Indy D that has been the fifth-worst in the league at surrendering points to the position, he should easily see a top-6 finish. That’s exactly what I’m betting will happen as Carr and company struggle to keep up with the surging Colts, who should absolutely thrash a depleted Raiders D.
Moreau should see plenty of work as the Colts secondary projects to play well against Hunter Renfrow and the rest of the LV wideouts. Fire him up if you need him.
Prediction: 5 receptions, 45 yards, 1 TD = 15.5 points
Here’s hoping you win the whole enchilada this weekend, taking home some mullah along with a sense of pride. Just remember to keep your foot on the gas and the pedal to the metal in the lead-up to championship weekend, so you can put that hot-pink, Barbie-themed Jeep in neutral and let Jesus take the wheel on Sunday.
For the last time this fantasy football season, good luck!
Jeremy Shulman
Jeremy is an avid football fan from New York who lives in Amsterdam and roots for the Patriots. This walking contradiction has played fantasy football for over than 20 years. He is now a Senior Dynasty Writer at The League Winners. In his spare time, he writes and edits professionally.