I have a confession to make, already, after Week 1… I’ve gotten some sleep. Unfortunately, it came on quickly in the middle of the late games on Sunday.
Living in Amsterdam, the early slate begins at 7pm. The late games end around two in the morning. While this may seem untenable, and it probably is, I’m all in on this season. So… there’s not much to be done but adjust my sleep schedule, consume more coffee than the ungodly amounts I already do, and try not to wake my family in the wee hours of the morning.
Anyway, Week 1 wasn’t exactly what I was looking for in terms of sleeper success, other than catching a few real-life Zs. In fact, my powers of prognostication failed me big time, but I aim to get better.
It’s accountability time, so let’s hit it.
Week 1 Review: 0-4
Wins:
Nada… damn.
Losses:
Sam Darnold, QB – I picked Darnold to put up three TDs. He only put in one through the air and one on the ground against a moderately improved Jets D. As a result, he finished as the QB17. He wasn’t a top-12 fantasy football option, so this is an L.
Trey Sermon, RB – the surprise inactive of the weekend (aside from Zack Moss), Sermon didn’t even sniff the field. No one foresaw this, but no production means another L for me.
Russell Gage, WR – with just two targets and 0 catches, Gage is my third L on the week. It’s disappointing, but so was the Falcons offense as a whole. I won’t trust many Atlanta playmakers until I see it work.
Jonnu Smith, TE – though I liked to see Smith’s usage, he didn’t find the end zone in Week 1. As we know, TEs will need to hit paydirt most weeks to be a top-12 fantasy football option. Jonnu finished as the TE17. I’m 0-4 on the weekend. Ugh.
Week 1 was brutal. Time to get better.
Finally, as a reminder, here’s how we’re defining fantasy football sleepers and wins and losses
- Only players ranked outside of the QB12, RB30, WR40 and TE10 for a given week based on the weekly Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) on Fantasy Pros are eligible. That’s roughly guys hovering at or beyond the consensus top-100.
- For a player to ‘hit’, I’m requiring a finish within the top-60 players. That means he was a serviceable starting piece that contributed meaningfully to your lineup, and he also exceeded expectations in a significant way. Historically, he put up at least 15 PPR points.
Shulman’s Sleepers: Week 2
QB: Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
Fantasy Pros ECR: QB13
Russell Wilson scorched the earth against this Colts D on just 18 of 23 passes, for a total of 254 yards and four TDs. The Colts aren’t that bad in the secondary. Mr. Unlimited is just that good.
Someone else who is just as good is Matt Stafford. Stafford dropped 321 yards, three TDs, and no INTs against the Bears last weekend. He’s also my darkhorse MVP candidate, now paired with Sean McVay.
Against the Colts, I trust this staff to scheme players open while Stafford continues to make the right decisions. It’ll be a somewhat tougher task this week, but I’m confident it won’t be too much for the Rams’ new signal-caller.
Prediction: 280 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT; 4 rushes, 8 yards = 22.0 points
RB: Ronald Jones, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Fantasy Pros ECR: RB41
RoJo let the ball hit the dirt on Sunday and head coach Bruce Arians told him to hit the pine. It’s a tale as old as time; or at least as old as Jones’ career. This is nothing new, so I’m not fading Jones at all due to the disappointing developments in Week 1.
This week, Jones received a vote of confidence from Arians, being named the starter for the Bucs matchup against the Falcons. This is a scorch-the-earth matchup for Jones, assuming he hangs on to the football and receives the bulk of the rushing work.
Last week, Miles Sanders finished as the RB12 without recording a TD. Kenneth Gainwell ended up the RB22 in fantasy football. I’m all in on RoJo this week, in a huge bounce-back effort.
Prediction: 21 carries, 90 yards; 1 reception, 5 yards; 1 total TD = 16.5 points
WR: Sterling Shepard, New York Giants
Fantasy Pros ECR: WR42
Sterling Shepard was, somehow, predictably great in his Week 1 effort against the Broncos. The Denver D was able to hold every piece of the Giants’ offense in check, except Shepard, who went for seven receptions, 113 yards and a TD.
The production is great, but what’s more encouraging is the nine targets Shepard saw last week. It was expected that Kenny Golladay would be the #1 target in this offense. Not so in Week 1.
Over the past two years, Shepard’s averaged 7.8 targets per matchup. With nine targets last week, it may not matter who lines up next to him. Fire him up against the WFT in Week 2.
Prediction: 5 receptions, 70 yards, 1 td = 18.0 points
TE: Robert Tonyan, Green Bay Packers
Fantasy Pros ECR: TE12
Robert Tonyan didn’t do much in Week 1 against a stout New Orleans defense that was relentless all afternoon. Neither did anyone of the Packers offense for that matter.
Tonyan’s four targets is encouraging on a day where QB Aaron Rodgers only threw the ball 28 times. I’ve been big on Tonyan’s regression in 2021, as many others have been, but it won’t matter in Week 2 against a still-poor Lions D. Detroit gave up the most points to TE in the league in Week 1 to George Kittle and company. I don’t see them stemming the tide in week 2.
The Lions will have their hands full with Davante Adams and the running game, so I’m betting Tonyan finds the end zone; like he did in both matchups against the Lions last season.
Prediction: 5 receptions, 52 yards, 1 td = 16.2 points
Here’s to our collective success in Week 2. There’s nowhere to go but up, anyway…
Jeremy Shulman
Jeremy is an avid football fan from New York who lives in Amsterdam and roots for the Patriots. This walking contradiction has played fantasy football for over than 20 years. He is now a Senior Dynasty Writer at The League Winners. In his spare time, he writes and edits professionally.