Fantasy Football 2021: Shulman’s Sleepers – Week 4

This is a grind. I can’t complain. I love it. But the wife is back in the states dealing with her sister’s wedding plans and I’m here in Amsterdam, solo dadding it up.

I enjoy it most of the time but, if I’m honest, other times make me wish I could just tap out for the night. But that’s parenting. Highs and lows; incredibly rewarding but also intensely frustrating. Especially, knowing that literally none of it is anyone’s fault but your own; that’s tough. The parents out there know. But it’s all about accountability and getting better each and every day.

Speaking of accountability, the only thing more frustrating is the wrong calls you make in fantasy football. Whether you write content or not, your weekly lineup decisions and navigation through a season filled with injury and underperformance can make or break your fantasy football season. Hopefully, this column can help with that.

Anyway, we’re back in the saddle for Week 4. Welcome to your weekly dose of maybe we get it right, maybe we don’t. And by “we”, I mean “me”. I spent some time in England and the royal we rubbed off I guess. Sue me. 

That was a bit aggressive, but so were my Week 3 sleeper calls. Some hit, some didn’t. Let’s see what’s what before we dive into this week.

Week 3 Review:

Win

Cordarrelle Patterson, RB – I rode the wave with Patterson in Week 3, and he came through in a big way. In my Fantasy Facts and Figures column this week, I highlighted that Cordarrelle’s rushing share has stabilized at around 35%, and his target volume keeps increasing. He was the RB19 with 16.2 PPR points. That’s a solid W. 

Loss

Daniel Jones, QB – The QB20 on the week, the anemic Giants offense just couldn’t push through against a woeful Falcons D. I should’ve known better than to trust Jones, but the matchup was juicy. Instead, previous QB calls that I got wrong – Sam Darnold and Matt Stafford – finished as the QB5 and QB3 respectively. Big L here. 

Rondale Moore, WR – Ugh. Moore lost out to Christian Kirk (WR20) and AJ Green (WR22) this week. In truth, I almost went with Kirk here, who’s been great. Still, I’ll take the L on a really bad call. Moore was the WR102 with just 2.4 PPR points. I took a few Ls playing him in my fantasy football lineups last week. This one hurt.

Austin Hooper, TE – Usually, a TE TD is enough to get the job done. Unfortunately, though Hooper found the end zone, he only came up with 9.9 PPR points for a TE15 finish. Disappointing. Just 2/19/1 on three targets isn’t going to get it done. Kareem Hunt was the big winner this week. Back to the drawing board.

A very upsetting 1-3 this week. 3-9 overall. I’ll need to hit this week or… well… or I’ll just keep striking out, I guess. Something something, process over results, something something.

As a reminder, here’s how we’re defining fantasy football sleepers, and wins and losses:

1. Players ranked outside of the QB12, RB30, WR40 and TE12 for a given week based on the weekly Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) on Fantasy Pros are eligible to be chosen. That’s roughly guys at or beyond the consensus top 100.
2. For a player to ‘hit’, I’m requiring a finish inside the top 60 at each position, though TEs are special so we’ll say a top 6 TE if not within the top 60. That means he was a serviceable starting piece that contributed meaningfully to your lineup, and he also exceeded expectations in a significant way. Historically, he put up at least 15 PPR points.

Shulman’s Sleepers: Week 4

QB: Taylor Heinicke, Washington Football Team

Fantasy Pros ECR: QB17

Kirk Cousins was my pick, but he’s the QB12. Then, I liked Ryan Tannehill’s game, but he’s likely to be missing his top two wideouts. So, I’ll pivot to Taylor Heinicke. 

There should once again be a path to relevance for Heinicke in Week 4 as a streaming option. In Week 2, he was the QB12 against the Giants. More surprisingly, he finished as the QB10 last week against the Bills thanks to garbage time production. 

Again, I’m betting on a mediocre QB in an underwhelming offense against the Atlanta Falcons D. But, Heinicke has looked good in flashes, and could do it through the air and on the ground again in this one. Time to bet on a mobile QB jumping into the top tier for a third straight week.

Prediction: 240 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INT; 7 rushes, 30 yards, 1 TD = 22.6 points

RB: Sony Michel, Los Angeles Rams

Fantasy Pros ECR: RB36

Dalvin Cook (RB46) is easy money if he plays, as is Darrell Henderson (RB 40). The aforementioned Patterson is still RB39. I have no clue why. There are also a few excellent options just out of reach in Zach Moss (RB28), Leonard Fournette (RB29) and Jamaal Williams (RB30).

So, I’ll call on Sony Michel this week. Of course there’s a chance Henderson plays, but I’m betting Michel gets the lion’s share of the opportunity for one more week. Last week, he was the RB25 against a stout Tampa front without finding the end zone. If he gets anywhere near his 23 touches again, he should smash an underwhelming Arizona run D. 

Assuming Henderson is at least limited this week, fire up Michel and expect a solid flex performance with upside. 

Prediction: 12 carries, 60 yards; 2 receptions, 10 yards; 1 total TD = 15.0 points

WR: Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers

Fantasy Pros ECR: WR42

I’m taking the easy money with Brandon Aiyuk in what should be a game where neither team can stop the other. The 49ers are the 10^th worst run defense for fantasy football points allowed. The Seahawks are the worst. 

Last week, Aiyuk came back to life and Jimmy Garoppolo targeted him a ton. We know he’s talented, so seeing six targets and a snap share north of 85% was encouraging. I’m betting on Kyle Shanahan exposing this defense once again on the ground. But with few healthy backs, Aiyuk could also see a carry or two in addition to low aDOT, YAC opportunities.

Give me the strong potential of another TD in a likely high-scoring affair with Aiyuk outside the top-40 for what should be the last week he’s ranked so low.

Prediction: 4 receptions, 55 yards; 2 carries, 15 yards; 1 total TD = 17.0 points

TE: Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills

Fantasy Pros ECR: TE18

Dawson Knox got the looks last week, as Josh Allen went nuclear against the WFT defense. He’s also averaged four targets per game this season, so he’s getting consistent, though limited work. But what’s bigger news, is he’s scored two TDs in the past two weeks. Knox is a red zone weapon for this team. 

Knox has finished as the TE12 and TE9 in back-to-back weeks. Now, he’s set to take on a better-than-you-think Texans D who could limit fringe WR options for Buffalo. I’m not expecting much of an uptick in usage, as the Bills should be comfortably ahead at the half. Still, Knox is a good bet to open up the middle of the field and get open against the fifth worst defense against opposing tight ends. Those opposing TEs: Chris Manhertz, the Browns trio and mostly Tommy Tremble.

Knox should hit for over 50 yards this week, and I’d bet he finds the end zone once again.

Prediction: 4 receptions, 55 yards, 1 TD = 15.5 points

That’s all for this week. Good luck with all your fantasy football lineup decisions in Week 4.