We’ve got a month of fantasy football in the books and, so far, the books read a little backwards.
If you faded Robert Woods and bought into Chase Edmonds, then you’re probably in good shape. If you were buying Josh Jacobs and dismissing Ja’Marr Chase, then it could be a tough road ahead. Thankfully, there’s a lot of season left to go. With four full weeks of data, tape, and insights, there’s a chance to turn this around or make the right moves to continue our hot streaks. Just remember: don’t sleep on talent.
Though I got off to a poor start, I’ve been nearly .500 in Weeks 2-4 on these calls. It’s not exceptional, but the standards are fairly high here, as they should be.
Let’s look back at how Week 4 went, and see if we can’t get it right in Week 5. Things are lookin’ up.
Week 4 Review
Wins
Taylor Heinicke, QB – Taylor Heinicke was the QB5 this past week thanks to a come-from-behind win against a hapless Falcons D. He continued his assault on the league as a Konami code QB, throwing for 290 yards and 3 TDs, while also rushing for 43 yards. It was a massive day for the older-than-he-should-be signal caller, and a big W for me, especially where I plugged him in.
Dawson Knox, TE – I love the “The One Who Knox” nickname, which I’ve heard a few times this week. Dawson Knox has broken the bad performance streak he’s provided so far in his young career and broken out in 2021. His two touchdown day in Week 4 made him the fantasy football TE2. With 20.7 fantasy points from the tight end slot, you were probably happy with your wins this week. I know I was.
Losses
Sony Michel, RB – Sony Michel did next to nothing as Darrell Henderson came back and handled the bulk of the work last week. Sony actually ended the day with -0.9 points thanks to a fumble on just three total touches. This was a bad call. Even though I mentioned both Henderson and Patterson as good plays in this piece last week, I chose Michel, so I’ll take the ridiculous L there. Yuck.
Brandon Aiyuk, WR – this one is even more egregious, because Brandon Aiyuk actually played a lot. Yet it was Deebo Samuel who finished as the fantasy football WR2 this week, while Aiyuk came in at WR97. That’s tied with Braxton Berrios, Olamide Zaccheaus and Willie Snead with 2.5 fantasy points. That’s Charles Barkley ‘turrible’. I called it easy money. Clearly, now I’m broke.
I went 2-2 last week. I should’ve stayed in the flames with Cordarrelle Patterson, or taken Henderson to go 3-1. 5-11 overall ain’t good, but we’re inching closer to .500. I think we’re starting to get the hang of this. Let’s hope the experts keep leaving some meaty plays on the bone.
As a reminder, here’s how we’re defining fantasy football sleepers, and wins and losses
- Players ranked outside of the QB12, RB30, WR40 and TE12 for a given week based on the weekly Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) on Fantasy Pros are eligible to be chosen. That’s roughly guys at or beyond the consensus top 100.
- For a player to ‘hit’, I’m requiring a finish inside the top 60 at each position, though TEs are special so we’ll say a top 6 TE if not within the top 60. That means he was a serviceable starting piece that contributed meaningfully to your lineup, and he also exceeded expectations in a significant way. Historically, he put up at least 15 PPR points.
With all of that out of the way, let’s get into it for the week ahead.
Shulman’s Sleepers: Week 5
QB: Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Fantasy Pros ECR: QB15
There are a lot of excellent choices this week at quarterback. I’m going with Joe Burrow to continue his solid play, with the potential to jump into the top-10 against an underperforming Green Bay unit.
We know Aaron Rodgers and the offense will be clicking against the Bengals defense, so I’m assuming a shootout in this one. Daniel Jones against the Cowboys is also a good bet, but Burrow is at home and will likely be without volume-hog Joe Mixon. That should leave plenty of pass attempts for the offense.
Also of note, Tee Higgins is trending on a return. If he plays, it’s just another weapon for the presumably pass-heavy gamescript the Bengals will employ out of necessity this week. I like Burrow’s chances at a nice game.
Prediction: 290 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT; 4 rushes, 15 yards = 23.1 points
RB: Jamaal Williams, Detroit Lions
Fantasy Pros ECR: RB32
It’s slim pickings out here in RB land. Even though part of me wants to bet on Kenny Gainwell in a tough matchup against Carolina on the road, I’m gonna be more sensible and go with Jamaal Williams.
Williams wasn’t exactly the sensible option coming into the season, with D’Andre Swift being taken four or more rounds before him. Through one month of the season, the backfield is a clear split; with Williams working more as an early down back.
In a game where the Lions will have to utilize their backs, I’m betting on both being relevant, as they were in Week 1 against the 49ers and Week 3 against the Ravens.
Even with Swift ranked as this week’s RB8 on the road in Minnesota, I’m betting Jamaal comes through. Thank you, Anthony Lynn.
Prediction: 12 carries, 50 yards; 3 receptions, 20 yards; 1 total TD = 16.0 points
WR: Jamison Crowder, New York Jets
Fantasy Pros ECR: WR45
The Atlanta Falcons defense is in shambles. I don’t totally get it, but it’s a mess down in Georgia. If there’s one thing they give up to opposing offenses, it’s a ton of passing yards.
Atlanta ranks as a bottom five defense in fantasy points given up to QBs and WRs though the first month, according to Fantasy Pros. And, as far as Jamison Crowder is concerned, all he does is produce when healthy.
In his first action of 2021 last week, he posted a 7/61/1 line. He averaged 6/72/0.5 in eight games last year, largely against good defenses.
I’m of the opinion that Crowder is good, so he’ll find openings in a porous D, finding the end zone again this week.
Prediction: 6 receptions, 55 yards, 1 TD = 16.5 points
TE: Tyler Conklin, Minnesota Vikings
Fantasy Pros ECR: TE14
Tyler Conklin has earned 14 targets over the past two weeks. Given that Detroit just released maybe their best LB in Jamie Collins, Conklin should find plenty of space to operate in what should be a win for the Vikings.
The Lions have been middle of the road against opposing TEs this year, and they’ve faced some good ones in Kittle, Tonyan and Andrews. Though they didn’t limit their yardage, their catches and TDs were depressed.
I’m betting Conklin bucks the trend and finds paydirt in Week 5, thanks to an unhealthy Dalvin Cook. Though he should run all over the Lions, I’m seeing a big week for Kirk Cousins and the rest of the offense ahead. Fire up Conklin in your fantasy football lineups.
Prediction: 5 receptions, 50 yards, 1 TD = 15.0 points
Good luck in Week 5! Here’s hoping you get some much needed shut eye ahead of this weekends’ matchups.
Jeremy Shulman
Jeremy is an avid football fan from New York who lives in Amsterdam and roots for the Patriots. This walking contradiction has played fantasy football for over than 20 years. He is now a Senior Dynasty Writer at The League Winners. In his spare time, he writes and edits professionally.