In the last week, I’ve travelled from Amsterdam, to Washington DC, to New York, on an east coast tour visiting family and friends. Between weddings and catching up with people I haven’t seen in two years now, it’s been a wild ride. And still, the NFL (and fantasy football) have proven to be wilder.
The Falcons almost blew one to the Jets, the Bears dominated a suddenly-not-so-hot Raiders squad, and the Bills crushed the now 2-3 Kansas City Chiefs.
To say I’ve been sleepless these last few days would be an understatement. But as the Seattle Seahawks are left wondering who will captain their ship for the next two months, I’m am a captain prepared to go down with mine.
So far, we’re not exactly hitting on sleeper picks, though we’ve had a few close calls. So, let’s review where we stand by taking a look back at where we’ve been.
Week 5 Review
Wins
Nunca. Nap. Zilch. Zip… yuck.
Losses
Joe Burrow, QB – Joe Burrow was the QB15 in Week 5, but finished less than three points away from the QB8. It’s not a bad performance by any stretch, but it doesn’t fit our criteria as a top-12 option at the position. Davis Mills, Jameis Winston and Trevor Lawrence were all better options this week. Maybe Burrow’s throat contusion played a role – yeah, probably not.
Jamaal Williams, RB – Of course I choose Jamaal during a down week. Really, those only come when Williams doesn’t find the end zone. The biggest issue with Williams’ production over the past few weeks is that he’s only garnered seven targets in Weeks 2-5. While Jamaal maintains a safe floor because of his rushing usage, D’Andre Swift has commandeered essentially all the RB targets for the foreseeable future.
Jamison Crowder, WR – Crowder came back in Week 4 and led the Jets to an improbable OT victory over the Titans. In Week 5, however, Crowder was contained. His 7/61/1 line became 4/24/0 against a lowly Falcons D that did enough to keep the Jets passing game at bay. This one wasn’t even close.
Tyler Conklin, TE – Well, I was 4 for 4 on my calls this week… which was not a good thing. There’s not much to say here except that the Lions handled the Dalvin Cook-less Vikings and limited all offensive weapons except for Alexander Mattison and Justin Jefferson. Conklin went 2 for 25 and didn’t hit paydirt. Damn.
0-4 in Week 5 hurts any attempt I was making to regress toward the mean. 5-15 overall is ugly, but we keep on keeping on.
As a reminder, here’s how we’re defining sleepers and wins and losses
- 1. Players ranked outside of the QB12, RB30, WR40 and TE12 for a given week based on the weekly Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) on Fantasy Pros are eligible to be chosen. That’s roughly guys at or beyond the consensus top 100.
- 2. For a player to ‘hit’, I’m requiring a finish inside the top 60 at each position, though TEs are special so we’ll say a top 6 TE if not within the top 60. That means he was a serviceable starting piece that contributed meaningfully to your lineup, and he also exceeded expectations in a significant way. Historically, he put up at least 15 PPR points.
Shulman’s Sleepers: Week 6
QB: Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
Fantasy Pros ECR: QB15
I’d love to go with Taylor Heinicke once again, but he’s the ECR QB12. Wentz is intriguing in a home matchup against the Texans; but betting on the on-again, off-again Colts offense and its mercurial QB is a scary proposition. I’ll go with the rookie, overall #1 pick on a Jags team in a tailspin.
After beating the Colts on opening day in 2020, the Jaguars have lost 20 straight games. Even in an already lost season, Lawrence continues to put up numbers, largely due to his rushing floor. Urban Meyer be damned, Lawrence is the QB13 over the last two weeks against poor defensive units.
Lawrence has completed 70% of his passes in Weeks 4 and 5, while also finding success on the ground. I’d expect another dual-threat effort from Trevor as his team works to claw back in this one, to ultimately lose once again.
Prediction: 260 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT; 7 rushes, 35 yards, 1 TD = 23.9 points
RB: JD McKissic, Washington Football Team
Fantasy Pros ECR: RB32
I like Nyheim Hines, Devin Singletary and Gio Bernard this week as well, but JD McKissic seems primed to have a massive role against an explosive Chiefs; especially given WFT’s defensive struggles this season. A frustrated Chiefs offense will look to get right early, and I’d expect Washington to be chasing points all game long.
McKissic himself is two weeks removed from a 12-touch game in a come-from-behind victory against the Falcons. He finished as the fantasy football RB14 in Week 4. He was unfortunately shutdown in Week 5 by a swarming New Orleans front. Thankfully for the entire offense, the KC defense has been more accommodating to opposing offenses.
Through Week 5, the Chiefs have been one of the friendliest fantasy defenses to throw on, giving up the most points to QBs this season. With weapons like Logan Thomas on the shelf and Antonio Gibson gutting out a stress fracture in his shin, McKissic should eat in this one, especially through the air.
Prediction: 7 carries, 30 yards; 5 receptions, 40 yards; 1 total TD = 18.0 points
WR: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions
Fantasy Pros ECR: WR49
There are some appealing fantasy football options this week as the NFL sees a few teams take the first bye week of the season. I like Robby Anderson, Jalen Reagor and Kalif Raymond this week, but I’m rolling with St. Brown because of his ascending role in this offense – a good sign for a rookie pass-catcher.
St. Brown was a highly-thought of recruit and was expected to assume a large role in this offense that was (and still is) devoid of impact weapons. In Week 5, all those predictions came to fruition, as Amon-Ra amassed 65 yards on 7 receptions. Over his last two games, St. Brown has seen 16 targets, turning them into 13 catches and 135 total yards.
Goff is clearly looking to the rookie early and often. Against the high-powered Bengals offense, the Lions should once again be playing from behind. Goff has had at least 30 attempts in every game this season, which always bodes well for the passing game. Hockenson and Swift should get theres, so unless Raymond and/or Jamaal Williams go off, I’d expect St. Brown to play a major role and find the end zone in this one.
Prediction: 6 receptions, 60 yards, 1 TD = 18.0 points
TE: Jared Cook, Los Angeles Chargers
Fantasy Pros ECR: TE13
Jared Cook has been an up-and-down TE option in fantasy football so far. This is in large part due to the insane emergence of Mike Williams. Williams’s dominance has come at the expense of all other pass-catchers most weeks, including Keenan Allen.
In Week 6, I expect Cook to come through with a TD in what should be another shootout for the Bolts on the road. The team that put up 47 points last week should once again flirt with 40; if they can continue their hot streak in the passing game.
As for Cook, he’s only had one game worthy of topping our sleeper metric as a top-6 TE option. That was back in Week 4 against the Raiders. If Baltimore can limit wideouts again as they have done all season, Cook and Ekeler should be the beneficiaries.
Prediction: 5 receptions, 55 yards, 1 TD = 15.5 points
Week 6 of fantasy football starts today! Flex these guys on your way to a W and catch some Zs as you rest easy on Sunday night. Good luck!
Jeremy Shulman
Jeremy is an avid football fan from New York who lives in Amsterdam and roots for the Patriots. This walking contradiction has played fantasy football for over than 20 years. He is now a Senior Dynasty Writer at The League Winners. In his spare time, he writes and edits professionally.