I’m in an airport. JFK to be exact. Its busier than it probably should be as I sit a the gate I arrived way-too-early for, hypocritically judging the myriad travellers, myself a traveller. I haven’t seen my family in two years, so the trip back to the United States was a welcome mix of partying, laughter, and spending time with some of my favorite humans in the world; a statement I’ve tested in the field to be sure.
As I prepare to board the plane that takes me and my son to our new home; reflecting on the time I’ve had at my old home, one thing remains clear: I’m still not getting any goddamned sleep.
So, of course, you know I’m the right guy to be writing this piece weekly. I’ve become quite the expert, running experiments on myself, and working hard to determine the limits of human need. It’s a thankless job, but it’s one I take seriously.
But enough about me. Before we get to the guys you actually want to read about who have slept long enough season, let’s take a look at how my fantasy football picks fared last week.
Week 6 Review
Wins
JD McKissic, RB – McKissic was the fantasy football RB13 this week, taking over for a clearly hobbled Antonio Gibson. In a plus matchup against Kansas City, JDK took advantage and posted 110 total yards and 8 receptions. That’s a heck of a day, and he helped me look okay in the process.
Losses
Trevor Lawrence, QB – Lawrence looked decent in the Jags first win in 20 games. Though TLaw lost a fumble in this one, he’s only thrown one INT in his last three games after recording seven in his first three. That’s improvement to be sure, though the QB18 on the week doesn’t help anybody in fantasy football. Especially those looking for a sleeper to help them win a week. L.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR – St. Brown’s five receptions were good. Unfortunately, he only managed to post 26 yards. Even with a 2-point conversion, ARSB fell well short of being a reliable sleeper by our standards, finishing as the PPR WR46. The experts were right on this one. Back to the drawing board but, note to self: maybe don’t rely on Lions WRs in the future.
Jared Cook, TE – Cook was the TE11 this week and managed to post 12.5 PPR points. If you started Cook at TE, the 4/25/1 line was well received given the landscape at the position. But, in the sleeper realm, we didn’t quite make the cut. Plus, given he was ranked as the TE13, there’s no way we could consider him anything but a loss this week. Sad but true.
1-3 ain’t great, even with criteria that might be a bit too harsh to quantify fantasy football sleepers. Either that, or my picks have just been balls. Still, we’re movin on to next week because, well, what the hell else are we gonna do? 6-18 overall. Crap.
As a reminder, here’s how we’re defining sleepers and wins and losses
- Players ranked outside of the QB12, RB30, WR40 and TE12 for a given week based on the weekly Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) on Fantasy Pros are eligible to be chosen. That’s roughly guys at or beyond the consensus top 100.
- For a player to ‘hit’, I’m requiring a finish inside the top 60 overall, though TEs are special so we’ll say a top 6 TE if not within the top 60. That means he was a serviceable starting piece that contributed meaningfully to your lineup, and he also exceeded expectations in a significant way. Historically, he put up at least 15 PPR points.
Shulman’s Sleepers: Week 7
QB: Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
Fantasy Pros ECR: QB13
Tua Tagovailoa worked his way back from injury and into the starting lineup for the first time in nearly a month, just to realize that the rest of the offense around him was also hurt. DeVante Parker, Preston Williams and Will Fuller didn’t suit up for this one. The Phins still threw the ball 47 times in London against a Jaguars unit that is seemingly easier to run against than to throw on.
The volume there is intriguing. Against the Atlanta Falcons at home in Week 7, that volume should remain. For some reason, and maybe that reason is he’s just not been that good, Myles Gaskin’s workload has fluctuated wildly. Add in that Mike Gesicki is seeing a ton of work lately, and it’s anybody’s guess what Miami’s game plan is week to week.
Still, Tagovailoa should put up numbers in a game against one of the league’s worst defenses. In a week with 7 reality teams on bye and fantasy teams struggling to field a competent lineup, I’m betting Tua puts in a solid effot
Prediction: 285 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT; 4 rushes, 15 yards, 1 TD = 24.9 points
RB: Giovani Bernard, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Fantasy Pros ECR: RB40
I loved Gio going into this season, slotting in to the James White role in a Tom Brady offense. So far though, it’s been Leonard Fournette taking on that work while Gio’s been in and out of the lineup with injury. While I like Kenneth Gainwell and Rhomandre Stevenson this week as well, I’m rolling with Bernard.
The Chicago Bears defense has been a tough unit to pass on, but we know that the Bucs won’t look to run it down the Bears’ throats with Brady still slinging it the way he has. I’m betting on the short passing game coming through in this one. To me, that means plenty of Godwin, a healthy TE and, of course, Giovani Bernard. Fournette’s been getting looks in the passing game (and that should continue), but you only need to look to the Rams game back in Week 3 to realize what’s possible.
I’m not projecting 9 receptions on 10 targets, but I do think Bernard gets a decent workload this week. If he manages to find the end zone, you’ll be glad you played him.
Prediction: 2 carries, 14 yards; 6 receptions, 40 yards; 1 total TD = 17.4 points
WR: Rashod Bateman, Baltimore Ravens
Fantasy Pros ECR: WR42
I get it. We’ve only seen the rookie in one NFL game after a long bout with injury to start the season. Given that he tied for the team-lead in targets last week in his first-ever professional appearance, I like Bateman’s chances to get even more involved this week.
Sammy Watkins looks unlikely to play, and the volume for Mark Andrews has been insane of late. I’m betting Baltimore wants to get another piece involved. It shouldn’t be too difficult to do against a Cincinnati Bengals team that hemorrhages yardage thus far this season.
This one has the makings of yet another shootout, and I’ll take the unknown of the Jackson/Bateman connection over more-proven, less-exciting options this week outside the top-40.
Prediction: 5 receptions, 70 yards, 1 TD = 18.0 points
TE: Ross Dwelley, San Francisco 49ers
Fantasy Pros ECR: TE21
Volume plays are winning plays in fantasy football, so give me the guy with a chance to see all the volume from likely-starter Jimmy Garoppolo in what should be a passing attack in need of some weapons.
I like Aiyuk more than I should this week as well, but Ross Dwelley is in a prime spot to grab a handful of balls and probably find the end zone in an underwhelming offense that can’t do a whole lot outside of getting Deebo Samuel in space this season.
Clearly, I don’t have much confidence in the 49ers offense right now, and the Colts are primed to stop the TE given their excellent LBs and safeties… and still, I’m rolling with Dwelley.
Prediction: 5 receptions, 50 yards, 1 TD = 15.0 points
I’ve landed and made my way home from the airport. It’s 7pm in Amsterdam as I wrap this article… and I’m exhausted.
Good luck in Week 7. I’m off to get some much-needed rest.
Jeremy Shulman
Jeremy is an avid football fan from New York who lives in Amsterdam and roots for the Patriots. This walking contradiction has played fantasy football for over than 20 years. He is now a Senior Dynasty Writer at The League Winners. In his spare time, he writes and edits professionally.