Fantasy Football 2021: Twinning in Nickel City – The Buffalo Backfield

How will the Buffalo Bills backfield play out for fantasy football in the 2021 NFL season?

You’d be forgiven if you’ve never seen the movie Twins starring Arnold Schwarzenegger and Danny DeVito. To be completely fair, it doesn’t really hold up as a model of cinematic excellence of the 1980s, and Arnold’s first foray outside of action films was largely held up by DeVito’s charisma and a unique storyline. Even if you have seen the movie, it’s probably been a while, so here’s a refresher that nobody wants.

In short, DeVito is a womanizing con artist always looking for an angle (yeah, the 80s were a wild time) while Schwarzenegger was a lab-created, genetic freak who was desperately in search of his long lost brother. Of course, it’s DeVito: the lesser twin of the genetically perfect Arnold. 

Though the film isn’t too memorable, the Bills backfield comes to mind as an interesting parallel to the movie. We’re not exactly looking at a Derek Henry/Dion Lewis situation, but second-year back Zack Moss profiles as the Arnold in this committee, coming in roughly 2 inches taller and 20 pounds heavier than third-year teammate Devin Singletary. 

What isn’t in question is that both backs will share the load in some fashion in Buffalo once again this season. What is of concern to fantasy football managers is just how much work each back will receive.

If you asked the majority of analysts and NFL beat writers a month ago, the consensus was that Moss will lead the charge this season. He was the better back to start, though his recent struggles with a balky hamstring has limited his work thus far. Moss seems like he’s mostly recovered however, so it remains to be seen if he can secure #1 duties as expected, or if Singletary will continue to look good with the 1s.

Let’s compare these two to see if we are looking at a twin attack for fantasy football in 2021, or if everyone’s expectations of Moss to the Moon is warranted. Let’s rock… and roll. 

Twinning

First, let’s have a look at their similarities. Despite Moss being the stronger, bigger and even faster (by one 100^th of a second) running back, both were third round picks in back-to-back seasons. In fact, many have gone so far as to assume that the Bills were less-than-thrilled with Singletary’s year one production. This led them to take Moss the following season.

However, no one in the organization can claim that Devin conned them as his college production and draft profile were somewhat underwhelming. Moss profiled as a similar back, though the promise of more power was evident.

In terms of NFL production, the story isn’t much different. According to PlayerProfiler, their respective rookie seasons share a lot in common. Their efficiency numbers are fairly even, with Singletary more apt to generate breakaway runs and Moss more capable of juking would-be tacklers and creating yards on his own.

A Failed Experiment?

But that’s really where the similarities end.

Last year it was clear that Moss was the superior option; for NFL and fantasy football purposes. Taking over the vacated Frank Gore role from the season prior, Moss put up more yards per touch with a depressed workload. When compared to Singletary, Moss posted nearly identical averages across the board on 68 fewer touches. 

Moss was just as good as the presumed RB1 in town, but how did Singletary fare from year one to year two? 

Unfortunately for him and his team, Singletary didn’t exactly take the leap the team was hoping for. On 14 more touches than 2019, the sophomore back saw a precipitous drop in his yards per touch averages. He also failed to score in the receiving game on 50 targets. Any statistical increases he saw were insignificant. All in all, his rushing work was uninspiring while his pass-game effectiveness saw little growth. 

This has led many to speculate that Moss will receive a heavier load this season. After all, he’s passed the eye test while managing to be more effective in the red zone. He’s seen significantly more stacked fronts than Singletary, who received the most carries in the league with six or fewer men in the box in 2020. 

Fantasy Football Backfield Busts?

With neither back making more than $5 million, the similarity in draft capital between the two suggests this is anyone’s backfield. This point was made even more evident when Buffalo signed journeyman Matt Breida this offseason.

This isn’t exactly a feel-good, buddy comedy. With Josh Allen’s dual-threat ability and tendency to vulture TDs around the goal line, there may not be a happy ending in store for anyone in this backfield. But if there’s one horse to bet on for fantasy football, it’s probably Moss. 

In year two, Moss should see a significant bump in touches and at least force a 50/50 split between himself and Singletary – making this a true twin attack in the Nickel City.

Singletary has looked good thus far in the preseason, so it’s possible we’ve all been a little bit too low on a back who may be finding his stride in year three. Still, he’s received extra run because Moss has been sidelined. Now that Zack is back and has found his relatively long-lost juice, I’m buying the dip.

As for Breida, the weight of beating out these two should prove too much for him – like the weight of industrial chains falling on a hitman. Or, the heft of DeVito’s 1980s machismo. Or, the mass of Schwarzenegger’s star power which carried the film like an Austrian-American Atlas. 

It’s a two-man show in Buffalo. If I’m right, Zack Moss is still setup to do the heavy lifting in 2021.