With Week 1 of the 2022 NFL season behind us, I thought I would look back at the fantasy football ADP of the 2022 rookies and compare it to where they would be drafted based on what we’ve seen through one week. For this I used the Fantasy Pros super flex ADP and completed a 3 round, 12 team draft to see who has lost or gained value. Let’s begin. We are now on the clock!
Round 1
1.01 – Breece Hall, Running Back, New York Jets (Original Pick 1.01): This pick was the safe play. Even though his role and usage wasn’t what everyone had hoped so far, Hall is still the best talent in the class.
1.02 – Drake London, Wide Receiver, Atlanta Falcons (Original Pick 1.02): London didn’t move up or down, which was no real surprise. Based on Week 1, London is the only player I could have justified at 1.01 besides Hall.
1.03 – Ken Walker, Running Back, Seattle Seahawks (Original Pick 1.03): Seeing Walker stay at 1.03 was a bit of a surprise. I thought that with the injury concern and lackluster Seattle offense, he may slide down a few spots. Instead the trust in his talent won out and he stayed put.
1.04 – Dameon Pierce, Running Back, Houston Texans (Original Pick 1.12): This one caught me by surprise. The preseason hype train saw Pierce move up eight spots; going as the rookie RB3 in fantasy football re-drafts. Despite his limited usage in Week 1 and a bad Houston offense, Pierce was still drafted at a premium.
1.05 – Treylon Burks, Wide Receiver, Tennessee Titans (Original Pick 1.04): With Pierce moving up, we see Burks move down one draft spot. This is likely due to a combination of asthma concerns and hype for Pierce being insane. Burks is still an elite prospect and is worthy of the 1.05.
1.06 – Chris Olave, Wide receiver, New Orleans Saints (Original Pick 1.05): Another WR who was pushed down a spot by Pierce. I anticipated Olave jumping ahead of Burks in the draft but that did not happen; and this drafter maintained the status quo.
1.07 – Johan Dotson, Wide Receiver, Washington Commanders (Original Pick 1.11): Our biggest WR mover so far, Dotson jumped up four spots. His listed ADP was 1.11, but this summer he was readily available in the later portion of the second round. Dotson’s rise was predictable; as he’s had some real camp buzz and a 2 TD Week 1 to send his stock soaring.
1.08 – Garrett Wilson, Wide Receiver, New York Jets (Original Pick 1.06): Wilson fell by two picks by no fault of his own. He just isn’t a sexy pick, and normally just goes when he is the best player left. No one really targets Wilson but no one really avoids him – he is just there.
1.09 – James Cook, Running Back, Buffalo Bills (Original Pick 1.10): Cook went one spot above his fantasy football ADP, and I’m not really sure why. He’s received little hype, fumbled on his first NFL touch, and was then benched for most of the game. There is little reason to continue to draft him this high. He likely went to a running back-needy manager.
1.10 – George Pickens, Wide Receiver, Pittsburgh Steelers (Original Pick 1.07): Pickens went with the 10th overall pick which is interesting because if this draft had been completed prior to Week 1 he likely would have been taken top 5. The hype around Pickens reached all time highs just before the season started. It has cooled off slightly with his limited usage in Week 1. He has the potential to be the WR1 in this class but will likely take some time to develop.
1.11 – Jameson Williams, Wide Receiver, Detroit Lions (Original Pick 3.06): Fantasy Pros had his preseason fantasy football ADP at 3.06, but that must be some kind of mistake. I’ve routinely seen Williams going in the back half of the first round. If you managed to get him in the third round congratulations – because that’s robbery. Having said that, Williams has a ceiling similar to Pickens and is well worth the late first rounder that was used to re-draft him here.
1.12 – Skyy Moore, Wide Receiver, Kansas City Chiefs (Original Pick 1.08): I see this pick as wishful thinking. Skyy was drafted in the mid-first round during the preseason; but is currently buried pretty far down on the Chiefs WR depth chart. He warrants a pick in leagues where you can stash him on a taxi squad; but should likely have seen himself drop somewhere into the mid or late second round.
Round 2
2.01 – Brian Robinson, Running Back, Washington Commanders (Original Pick 2.04): Robinson was steadily drafted in the second round throughout the preseason. He saw his draft stock shoot up with word he had usurped Antonio Gibson as the lead back in Washington. His stock has since dropped a bit after he was the victim of a car jacking and was placed on the IR. Robinson seems to be recovering nicely and I can’t wait to see him back in action. Robinson is well worth a second round pick in fantasy football rookie drafts. He likely would have gone above Dameon Pierce had he not been shot.
2.02 – Rachaad White, Running Back, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Original Pick 2.01): White stayed in the same range as the original draft period; likely because there has been little to no buzz about him. He hasn’t been good, he hasn’t been bad. As of now, he is just a back up to Lenny. I would have let White slide a bit more as I think he is a year or two away from a solid role in the Bucs offense; and by then this team could look much different and much younger.
2.03 – Kenny Pickett, Quarterback, Pittsburgh Steelers (Original Pick 2.08): Kenny rose by five spots; likely after managers seen how bad Trubisky was in Week 1. This pick was probably in anticipation of Pickett taking over as starter sooner rather than later.
2.04 – Romeo Doubs, Wide Receiver, Green Bay Packers (Original Pick 3.01): Doubs is the RB version of the Dameon Pierce hype train. Some flashy plays in camp sent his fantasy football ADP soaring, likely to a crash into nothingness. Doubs is not a player I roster in any leagues; and is not really someone who is likely to return value.
2.05 – Isaih Pacheco, Running Backs, Kansas City Chiefs (Original Pick Undrafted): Pacheco went undrafted for the majority of draft season and only appeared on the radar towards the end of camp. This pick is facilitated in large part due to some garbage time production in Week 1. I’m not a buy at this price, but then again I’m not really buying him at any price.
2.06 – Zamir White, Running Back, Las Vegas Raiders (Original Pick 2.09): Zeus stayed in the mid to late second round range in anticipation that he would probably start to slowly carve out a role in the Raiders offense. However, this appears to be a long term play for 2023 and beyond, and not so much for 2022.
2.07 – Alec Pierce, Wide Receiver, Indianapolis Colts (Original Pick 2.03): Pierce fell four spots from his original draft spot; and if I had it my way he would keep falling. The Colts offense runs through Taylor and Pittman. Pierce is likely the 4th receiver behind Campbell and Dulin. This is a wasted pick that will be cut by Week 4.
2.08 – Christian Watson, Wide Receiver, Green Bay Packers (Original Pick 1.09): Watson may be the biggest faller in this draft. Start with a poor preseason showing; and add injuries concerns and a terrible dropped touchdown to start Week 1 and I am surprised Watson was drafted at all. He has the athleticism and talent but will he ever win back the trust of Aaron Rodgers.
2.09 – Wan’Dale Robinson, Wide Receiver, New York Giants (Orignal Pick 2.10): Robinson was a player I was all over in the preseason; but the Giants are a mess and the injury plagued Sterling Shepard appears to have won the WR1 role. Wan’Dale is stash worthy but not trustworthy for the immediate future.
2.10 – Isaiah Likely, Tight End, Baltimore Ravens (Original Pick Undrafted): The undrafted tight end hype train has arrived. Two weeks ago no one had heard of Isaiah Likely. Now he has shot up in the rankings as if he didn’t have Mark Andrews in front of him on a run-heavy team. I’m sure Likely is a great player but he’s not someone I would target. I would rather draft Tre McBride in the third round, which I did later in this fantasy football draft.
2.11 – David Bell, Wide Receiver, Cleveland Brown (Original Pick 2.06): Bell saw his stock slide slightly; likely due to the fact that his starting QB has been suspended for 11 games since he was drafted. Bell isn’t shiny or sexy, but could turn into a solid possession receiver. He’s not someone to target, he is just a guy in my opinion.
2.12 – Malik Willis, Quarterback, Tennessee Titan (Original Pick 3.02): At the start of draft season Willis and Breece were the consensus 1.01/1.02. After he fell in the NFL draft his fantasy football dynasty stock plummeted; seeing him going in the early third round. Malik showed real potential in the preseason and is a dual threat QB who could one day be great. This is a great value pick for any team who can be patient with a QB for a few years. When Tannehill moves on, Willis could be a top 10 QB.
Round 3
3.01 – Isaiah Spiller, Running Back, Los Angeles Chargers (Original Pick 2.02): Early on, Spiller saw himself go in the middle of the first round. Then after the combine, it was the middle of the second round. Now it’s the beginning of the third round, and even that feels too early. He is buried on the Chargers depth chart after being beat out by Joshua Kelley. He’s droppable for anyone who needs a roster spot.
3.02 – Jaylen Warren, Running Back, Pittsburgh Steelers (Original Pick Undrafted): Warren primarily went undrafted, and probably should have stayed that way. His pick here at the beginning of the third round is a reflection of Najee Harris’ injury concerns; and a lack of any other decent options in the rookie pool. If you want to stash him in case Najee gets hurt that’s your decision. He is a wasted roster space otherwise.
3.03 – Jalen Tolbert, Wide Receiver, Dallas Cowboys (Original Pick 2.05): Tolbert has fallen almost a full round since rookie drafts. It’s likely because he was a healthy scratch for Week 1. He showed potential and appeared to be in a prime spot to see a significant role. But after being scratched for Noah Brown and Simi Fehoko I’m not overly hopeful for his value. He is droppable.
3.04 – Tyler Allgeier, Running Back, Atlanta Falcons (Original Pick 2.07): Another player who fell almost a full round because of a Week 1 healthy inactive, Allgeier, however, should see action in Week 2 due to Damien Williams’ injury; and holds significantly more value than Jalen Tolbert. Allgeier is worth a stash if you have the taxi squad space. After all, how long can Cordarrelle really stick around?
3.05 – Tyrion Davis Price, Running Back, San Francisco 49ers (Original Pick 2.12): This was supposed to be the TDP dream scenario. The 49ers suffered a long term injury to the starter, and TDP was right there to seize the opportunity. However after a Week 1 healthy scratch, it appears as if Jeff Wilson will be the one to seize the day. If you have TDP, hold him for the week to see if he is the one who steps up. If he doesn’t, he can be safely returned to the waiver wire.
3.06 – Desmond Ridder, Quarterback, Atlanta Falcons (Original Pick 3.10): Ridder is another quarterback in this draft class who fell in the NFL draft; causing him to fall in rookie drafts. The middle of the third round is solid value for a quarterback who should see his shot sooner rather than later. The issue here is whether he will play well enough to convince the Falcons not to draft a QB high in next year’s draft and snuff out his slim hope.
3.07 – Tre McBride, Tight End, Arizona Cardinals (Original Pick 2.12): As I stated before; if I was going to draft a TE in this class it would be McBride. The fact that he had fallen another round only makes the value that much better. Let other fantasy football managers fight over Likely and leave me with Tre.
3.08 – Hassan Haskins, Running Back, Tennessee Titans (Original Pick 3.08): Haskins has stayed put, which is shocking since he was drafted mostly as an injury backup to the returning Derrick Henry. Henry looks healthy and Haskins appears to be the third string behind Dontrell Hilliard. Pass on Haskins and find someone better.
3.09 – Kyle Philips, Wide Receiver, Tennessee Titans (Original Pick Undrafted): This is stealing. Treylon Burks at 1.05 and Haskins a pick before him. Give me the real Titans breakout rookie at the end of this draft all day. I will sit back and enjoy Kyle Philips and his WR3 season.
3.10 – This pick will be skipped as it auto drafted a player so far down the fantasy football ADP he couldn’t be relevant in a million years.
3.11 – Daniel Bellinger, Tight End, New York Giants (Original Pick Undrafted): The Giants have no other tangible options at TE so Bellinger should see his opportunities. What he will do with them is the unknown part. He is worth a later flier and a bench stash if you can spare a roster spot.
3.12 – Jelani Woods, Tight End, Indianapolis Colts (Original Pick Undrafted): Woods has freakish size and athleticism. However, he is buried behind a crowded room of pass catchers both at receiver and tight end. The tools are there, we will have to wait and see if he ever gets the chance to use them. Stash him for now.
