If you were the person who read this article last season (hi, mom), you’ll know that I don’t sleep during the NFL season. Even this week, my fantasy home league draft started at 2:30am Central European Time. Amsterdam is great for a lot of things. Unfortunately, tracking and writing about fantasy football is not one of them.
But I’m a diehard football fan who can’t get enough of the reality and fantasy games. So from September to February, I find broken sleep where I can for at least three nights out of each week; usually on the couch, basking in the soft glow of the television, tuned to NFL Network.
It takes a heavy toll, but at least that level of dedication might give you some solace as you take a look at my sleeper picks from week-to-week. Though sleep deprived, I am very focused on finding that weekly edge to help you win your leagues.
Each week I’ll provide you with one player at each position that is set to crush fantasy football expectations over the weekend. And I’ll try to insert some analysis along the way. But first, a few ground rules:
- I’m defining a sleeper as someone ranked outside of the QB12, RB30, WR40 and TE12 for a given week based on the weekly PPR Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) on Fantasy Pros. That’s roughly guys at or beyond the consensus top-100. These are the players we have questions about; and they’re likely the ones stashed on your bench or even still available on the waiver wire.
- In order for a player to ‘hit’, I’m requiring a finish just about within the top-60 overall players. That means he was a serviceable starting piece that contributed meaningfully to your lineup; and he also exceeded expectations in a significant way. Historically, he put up at least 15 PPR points.
- For QBs and TEs, I’ll require a top-8 finish, though very close calls will be explored further.
- Along the way, I’ll keep track of my hit rate and refine my process so that I’m accountable to my losses and work to maximize my wins to help you maximize yours.
So, now that we’ve got everything lined up and laid out, let’s dive in.
Shulman’s Sleepers: Week 1
QB: Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings
Fantasy Pros ECR: QB14
Cousins once again finished as the QB11 last year in fantasy football; throwing for 33 TDs to just 7 interceptions while further posting over 4200 yards through the air. Now, he’s got an offensive-minded head coach and a ton of smoke from offseason interviews that seem to indicate he can do even more in a pass-first offense.
In Week 1, he has a tough task against a very good Green Bay D that got better this offseason. However, Cousins has the best WR in the league in Justin Jefferson, a healthy red zone weapon in Adam Thielen and a nice supporting cast of pass-catchers. TE Irv Smith, WRs KJ Osborn and Jalen Raegor, and RBs Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison should factor in at some point in this one and throughout the season; providing Cousins with a safe floor and high ceiling on a fast track at US Bank Stadium.
Cousins comes out firing in Week 1 and hits as a top-8 QB; giving his team a chance to challenge the incumbent Packers for division supremacy.
Prediction: 280 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT; 3 rushes, 15 yards = 22.7 points
RB: Melvin Gordon, Denver Broncos
Fantasy Pros ECR: RB36
Melvin Gordon didn’t get much love on the free agent market this offseason. He ended up right back where he started, as a member of the Denver Broncos in 2022. However, given their upgrade at QB, Gordon has a chance to be flexworthy on a weekly basis this season; even as RB Javonte Williams continues to ascend as a young, talented player. And, if you believe the beat reporters, Gordon will continue to earn plenty of work as he did last season.
In Week 1, the revenge narrative is strong as Russell Wilson heads back to Seattle on Monday night to take on his former Seahawks. The Hawks are set to be one of the league’s worst teams this year, so Russ and the offense are set to eat. If you buy that the Broncos will crush their competition, then Gordon and Williams should see a lot of opportunity in the 2nd half; after Wilson has finished mopping the floor with his former team.
And, though I believe Russ goes off, there’s still room for both backs to have a day.
Prediction: 10 carries, 56 yards; 2 receptions, 15 yards; 1 total TD = 15.1 points
WR: Rondale Moore, Arizona Cardinals
Fantasy Pros ECR: WR49
I’m not a huge Rondale Moore believer after being burned last season on investing in a lot of shares, but it’s hard to ignore his early opportunity. With DeAndre Hopkins out the first six weeks, an aging AJ Green and the departure of Christian Kirk, even the addition of Kyler’s best friend WR Marquise Brown can’t throw me from buying back in to Moore.
A home date against the Chiefs in Week 1 is exactly what the doctor ordered for Moore’s sinking dynasty value; and it should help all those who bought in to Rondale at his depressed value this offseason. At least for the first month and a half of this year, he should be a weekly flex option. In a game like this that has shootout written all over it, I’m high on the receiver with one of the lowest centers of gravity in the league.
Rondale will need to be utilized differently than he was last season, but Head Coach Kliff Kingsbury has already promised as much. Rondale should show off exactly what that means for his fantasy football value this week.
Prediction: 6 receptions, 45 yards, 1 TD = 16.5 points
TE: Albert Okwuegbunam, Denver Broncos
Fantasy Pros ECR: TE14
Everyone’s far-too-early TE fantasy football sleeper this offseason was Albert O. Once Russell Wilson signed as the Broncos signal caller for the foreseeable future, Okwuegbunam was the biggest riser up dynasty boards. Moreso since Denver sent starting TE Noah Fant packing to Seattle in the process.
Though many have cooled on him since then, he has an opportunity as the starting TE to see meaningful work in a passing game that remains unclear as to how all the targets will shake out. With rookie TE Greg Dulcich finding his way to IR, AO has a strong path in Week 1 and beyond.
In case you couldn’t tell, I’m incredibly bullish on Russell Wilson and company destroying his old team on Monday night. In fact, I’d start every single Bronco skill player – except maybe KJ Hamler – to make sure I get a piece of that pie that is bound to go nuclear in the Emerald City.
Okwuegbunam should see more than a few targets and earn his fair share of work in the red zone. I’m more than willing to bet he pulls down one of Wilson’s many TD passes this week.
Prediction: 5 catches, 50 yards, 1 TD = 16.0 points
Good luck to everyone in Week 1. Here’s hoping you’ll be resting easy Sunday night after locking down your fantasy football matchups before the Broncos dominate on Monday night.
Jeremy Shulman
Jeremy is an avid football fan from New York who lives in Amsterdam and roots for the Patriots. This walking contradiction has played fantasy football for over than 20 years. He is now a Senior Dynasty Writer at The League Winners. In his spare time, he writes and edits professionally.