This time of year, it’s important to be flexible in fantasy football.
First, there are bye weeks to navigate as some of your top studs are bound to miss in your most crucial matchups. Next, you’ve got to consider trades that can help your team shroud a weakness or strengthen an already sturdy roster. Finally, getting a foothold in the standings is key. Playing the waiver wire and looking for that one back-breaking roster add to help win your league is especially important.
In this deep sleepers column, it’s my goal to help you find the hidden gems. Whether they’re simply viewed too low by the majority of fantasy football experts, or have untapped potential ahead of a breakout; the players I identify every week should at least be viewed as ones that can help you through a difficult period and keep you from feeling restless on Saturday night.
Ahead, I’ll identify some overlooked players who, though unorthodox calls, could help you unconventionally position yourself to earn a coveted W in Week 10.
But before we look at any of that, let’s have a look at what went down last week.
Week 9 Review
Taylor Heinicke, QB – Aside from learning how to spell Heinicke through repetition last week, I also debated whether he or Trevor Lawrence would be the better fantasy football play. Lawrence finished a few points better, but neither were smash starts like Justin Fields was. Regardless, Heinicke managed a decent day for his team; who managed to take the then 7-1 Minnesota Vikings down to the wire. But, Taylor’s 53.6 completion percentage and 5.3 yards per attempt did little for fantasy managers. Additionally, the logic behind starting Heinicke was to take advantage of his legs. With just 17 yards on the ground, his two touchdowns threw the air were necessary, and by no means helpful to your fantasy lineup. I’ll take the L on this one, even with six teams on bye.
- projected: 149/2/1 passing; 4/17/0 rushing
- actual: 270/2/1 passing; 5/30/0 rushing
Dontrell Hilliard, RB – Last week, I crushed my RB call, promoting D’Onta Foreman on his way to a 3 TD day. This week, I couldn’t have done much worse than recommending Hilliard – the week’s RB56. Hilliard’s 1.8 PPR points actually hurt you if you were forced into starting him. RBs like Jeff Wilson, Kenneth Gainwell and even Raheem Blackshear were much better starts from outside the top 30 backs. While James Conner was ranked low and not expected to play much, even he managed a top-20 finish on the day. For Hilliard, it was more of the same get-out-of-Derrick-Heny’s-way gameplan that we’ve seen time and again from the Titans. And I can’t blame them. I can only blame myself for trusting Hilliard to succeed for back-to-back weeks.
- projected: 5/30/0 rushing; 5/30/1 receiving
- actual: 3/12/0 rushing; 1/-4/0 receiving
DeAndre Carter, WR – I’ll take a W here, even though Carter was only the WR27 on the week. When ranked as the WR50, that’s a very nice rise, though. With Keenan Allen and Mike Williams ailing and on the sideline, Carter managed 5 receptions on 6 targets, despite not finding the end zone. Coupled with the fact that he faced a horrible Falcons D, and his outing felt disappointing; even though he was a serviceable flex play. While Allen Lazard had no business being outside the top 40 (and would have easily been my pick), the injury was scary enough to avoid recommending him. Carter now has averaged 6 targets per over his last three games. He’s a guy you can hang on to and play in a pinch if Allen and Williams remain out. With such a juicy schedule coming up, he could end up on this list in a few weeks’ time.
- projected: 5/55/1
- actual: 5/53/0
Cole Kmet, TE – For the second straight week, I brought the fire by recommending one of the highest scoring players on the week. Kmet was the TE2, falling just behind Dallas Goedert. He finished as the 17th overall fantasy football PPR scorer on the week. His two TDs and Justin Fields’ development have helped him find fantasy relevance once again. Now he has a chance to be a big help to fantasy managers over the next two weeks, playing the putrid Lions and Falcons defenses. This was a big W for me (and hopefully for you), as a TE going off is one of the best scenarios in fantasy at a position that often struggles to get it going. Kmet gave you at least a 10-point advantage over all but six other tight ends this week. Hopefully, you started him where you needed to.
- projected: 4/45/1
- actual: 5/41/2 receiving; 2/9/0 rushing
Kmet was amazing, Carter was decent, Heinicke was meh and Hilliard was just straight disappointing. That about covers it, so let’s cover this before we cover Week 10.
Here’s a look at how I define fantasy football sleepers and my wins and losses in their selection:
- Players ranked outside of the QB12, RB30, WR40 and TE12 for a given week based on the weekly PPR Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) on Fantasy Pros are eligible to be chosen. That’s roughly guys at or beyond the consensus top-100.
- For a player to ‘hit’, I’m requiring a finish just about within the top-60 overall players. That means he was a serviceable starting piece that contributed meaningfully to your lineup; and he also exceeded expectations in a significant way. Historically, he put up at least 15 PPR points.
- For QBs and TEs, I’ll require a top-8 finish, though very close calls will be explored further to see if they helped you win your week.
We’re about to jump into our deep sleepers. Don’t get it twisted, these guys could come up big in Week 10.
Shulman’s Sleepers: Week 10
QB: Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos
Fantasy Pros ECR: QB17
Russell Wilson has been the butt of fans alike this season; as many claims about his lack of true ability have been bandied about all year. For the most part, he has done little to quell concern. He currently sits as the QB21 in fantasy football, wedged between Jimmy Garoppolo and an injured-for-a-few-weeks-already Carson Wentz. It’s been flat out bad in Denver to date, but there is at least a small amount of room for optimism this week.
First, the Broncos head to Tennessee to take on the divison-leading, 5-3 Titans. On its face, it’s not that great for the Broncos chances of winning – though the Titans defense has been awful against the pass. Just how awful? I’m glad you asked.
They’ve been so awful, they have given up the 6th most fantasy points to QBs and TEs while allowing the 3rd most to opposing WRs on the season. Coupled with a strong run D, the Titans almost demand you pass the ball against them. If they’re smart, that’s exactly what the Broncos will do after their bye week. Next, the bye week itself.
Getting an extra week to prepare for an opponent while also refining and wholly integrating concepts of the new scheme should allow Russ to process faster in-game. Bye weeks are notorious for helping struggling players get right. Finally, there’s the health and emergence of his weapons who, given another week to gel in the offense, should come out firing in this one.
We know that the Broncos should not be nearly this bad. We also can’t expect everyone to be Tom Brady and master a completely new scheme in year one. That said, Russ has the potential to quiet his critics in a key AFC matchup that could help to right the ship in 2023. Win or lose, I think he takes advantage and fills the stat sheet.
Prediction: 250 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT; 4 rushes, 25 yards = 22.5 points
RB: Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts
Fantasy Pros ECR: RB31
Sometimes, a layup’s a layup. And that’s what this is. It’s a layup. After all, Taylor himself has been laid up with injury at multiple points this season; and some believe he should rest even further to get back to 100%. But it never matters what happened before. All that matters is now.
The now for the Colts is completely unknown, making it concerning for fantasy football managers. The big news surrounding this club is the hiring of interim head coach and former Colts star lineman Jeff Saturday. Given he has no collegiate or NFL coaching experience, this was certainly a surprise; but it would be hard to imagine he won’t lean on Taylor in this one, especially given their opponent.
Visiting the Las Vegas Raiders, Indy has an opportunity to add to their current mark of being the 8th worst fantasy defense against the run. That’s especially hard to do with a bye week sprinkled in. Let’s remember that there’s still tumult here at QB, while the Raiders have been at least decent against opposing WRs. With Nyheim Hines now in Buffalo and Deon Jackson still ailing from last week, Taylor should see close to his regular workload in this one if the Colts hope to end their three game losing streak.
It’s not rocket science to think that this dumpster fire of a season can be put out by Jeff Saturday relying on his lineman roots and running the rock. Provided JT is healthy enough to tote it, he’ll get the opportunity to do so plenty against a poor Vegas D.
Prediction: 15 carries, 80 yards, 1 TD; 3 receptions, 20 yards = 19.0 points
WR: Wan’Dale Robinson, New York Giants
Fantasy Pros ECR: WR41
Sure Chase Claypool and Donovan Peoples-Jones are sexy sleeper names this week. But I’m all about big games, even if they don’t come from big names. One guy who has a chance to break out and make a name for himself this week is Robinson, who has been teetering on massive for the past few weeks.
Wan’Dale was stymied by an invigorated Seahawks defense last weekend, but he had two usable games just before that against Baltimore and Jacksonville. In Weeks 6 and 7, Robinson averaged 4.5 receptions on 6 targets for 44 yards and .5 TDs. Those numbers aren’t staggering, but it is enough to warrant flex consideration to the rookie.
Now, he faces the lowly Texans D off the bye; while remaining the #1 passing game option now that the Giants are down to backup pass-catching options across the board. Saquon should absolutely eat in this one; but an underneath crossing route here and a bubble screen there should be enough to net fantasy points and take even more pressure off Barkley and the run game. I like Wan’Dale’s chances to have a very good game.
With the Giants likely to win comfortably, it’s a good time to bring Robinson into the fold and see what he can do. Even if he doesn’t blow up, WR2 numbers are well within reach this week.
Prediction: 5 receptions, 55 yards, 1 TD = 16.5 points
TE: Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears
Fantasy Pros ECR: TE14
I predicted the Cole Kmet breakout in this very column last week, so I’m headed back to the well this week. TE14 is not nearly enough respect for a man who just got it done, has a QB who cannot be stopped on his mission to extend drives with his legs, and is playing one of the worst defenses in the league in the Detroit Lions. This week is yet another Kmet week for fantasy football.
To start, the Lions are just flat out bad. They’re a bottom-5 defense in terms of giving up fantasy points to QBs, WRs and TEs. They are NOT bottom-5 against RBs – but they’re 6th worst. This unit is atrocious and has ceded fantasy goodness all over the field in 2022. Luckily for the Bears, Justin has been doing work all over the fields in his past few games – posting top 5 fantasy performance over his last three weeks.
Now that the trust of the coaching staff appears to be in place, I expect the Bears to open up the playbook and really see what Fields can do in the passing game. After all, Fields is the ECR QB4. I expect Mooney, the backs and, of course, Kmet to see plenty of work in what could become a shootout at Soldier Field.
Kmet should continue to roll now that the Bears offense is finding its way. I don’t expect another massive day for the young TE, but he’s absolutely in-play for a decent yardage total and a trip to the end zone.
Prediction: 5 receptions, 50 yards, 1 TD = 16.0 points
In this final stretch of the fantasy football regular season. It’s time to exorcise your squads demons and gain a little piece of mind. With these deep sleepers, the flex spot is bound to work out nicely, even if you have to force a few of them into place this weekend.
Jeremy Shulman
Jeremy is an avid football fan from New York who lives in Amsterdam and roots for the Patriots. This walking contradiction has played fantasy football for over than 20 years. He is now a Senior Dynasty Writer at The League Winners. In his spare time, he writes and edits professionally.