‘Tis the season… to shop til you drop. Or, at least, if you’re anything like me, let your wife handle most of it. I’m not saying I’m insensitive to the trials of Christmas gift purchasing and all the stress and anxiety that comes with it. But I’m also crap when it comes to knowing what to get. So, thankfully, she deals with what I can’t, while I also manage to get some shopping done myself. Much like this holiday season, there’s no rest for weary fantasy football managers as our teams that have moved on to the second season are in win-or-go-home mode.
So, without further ado, let’s get into how last week went before we go through this week’s picks.
Week 14 Review
Deshaun Watson, QB – Watson ended up reminding us why he was considered an elite fantasy football option at QB this week, even if he’s still rounding back into form. Given his hiatus (and reason for it) and his performance last week, it’s not surprising that many fantasy managers have wanted little to do with him thus far. But in Week 14, he finished as QB14 and improved in nearly every metric from the week prior against a stronger defense. And with 42 pass attempts, the volume was there. Going forward, I like Watson to finish the season strong. It just may take another week or two to find his old groove. This one is an L, but not too far off.
- projected: 230/1/1 passing; 6/30/1 rushing
- actual: 276/1/1 passing; 6/33/0 rushing
Travis Homer, RB – Homer was a supreme disappointment against a Carolina D that was stingier than expected. In the loss, the Hawks truly missed Kenneth Walker; as Homer and his 90+% snap share did little with his opportunity. The process here was correct again, as the volume was plentiful. Unfortunately, Homer couldn’t capitalize and finished with just 5.4 fantasy points. Given his performance this Thursday night was along the same lines with Walker back in the fold, he cannot be trusted moving forward. L.
- projected: 9/40/1 rushing; 4/35/0 receiving
- actual: 9/26/0 rushing; 2/8/0 receiving
Nico Collins, WR – Collins was scratched from this one over the weekend. That was clearly a shame given the fact that two of his teammates balled out in his (and Brandin Cooks’s) absence. While Chris Moore finished as the PPR WR5 in fantasy football on the week, Amari Rodgers was also the WR20. Either of these performances would’ve been considered a victory for Nico, but he didn’t even get the chance. Once again, the process was correct for picking a sleeper here. But, for the 3rd straight pick in week 14, this one also goes down as an L.
- projected: 5/55/1
- actual (Rodgers): 4/57/1
Daniel Bellinger, TE – Another injury-related L; Bellinger took a tough shot to the ribs in the 2nd quarter of his matchup with the Eagles. Given that the Giants got crushed in this one and were in comeback mode during the entire 2nd half, he clearly had a chance to build on his 3 for 19 day had he played more than just 61% of the snaps. Bellinger remains questionable for this week at the time of this writing, so the shot clearly took its toll on him. Alas, an L is an L… and this was yet another one to pile on.
- projected: 5/40/1
- actual: 3/19/0
With six teams on bye last week, it was difficult to find sleepers. Turns out I found them at each position; they just literally fell asleep as their teams purchased fantasy points by the bunches. Damn…
Anyway, here’s a look at how I define fantasy football sleepers and my wins and losses in their selection:
- Players ranked outside of the QB12, RB30, WR40 and TE12 for a given week based on the weekly PPR Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) on Fantasy Pros are eligible to be chosen. That’s roughly guys at or beyond the consensus top-100.
- For a player to ‘hit’, I’m requiring a finish just about within the top-60 overall players. That means he was a serviceable starting piece that contributed meaningfully to your lineup; and he also exceeded expectations in a significant way. Historically, he put up at least 15 PPR points.
- For QBs and TEs, I’ll require a top-8 finish, though very close calls will be explored further to see if they helped you win your week.
Ok – Now is the point where we jump into exactly who to watch for this weekend. So grab a seat, clutch your wife’s purse and get ready for this week’s picks.
Shulman’s Sleepers: Week 15
QB: Daniel Jones, New York Giants
Fantasy Pros ECR: QB17
Jones is no stranger to this list, though it’s a bit odd to me that he’s ranked so low this week. I get that there are no teams on bye; but Danny Dimes finished as the QB12 just two weeks go against this same defense, posting a 12 for 71 line on the ground. We know DJ can get it done with his legs. it’s time we take advantage of that fact and trust what we’ve seen to date.
Now in Washington, the Commanders should have an even better gauge of what Jones and the Giants offense will try to accomplish on offense. However, I’m betting that Daboll and company will mix up the playcalling and make it even tougher on the Washington D to keep up. In Week 13’s 20-20 tie, Slayton and Saquon did most of the heavy lifting. But now, Isiah Hodgins and Richie James have been even more involved; and could see more than just their 8 combined receptions from two weeks ago. Should they get going and Bellinger continue to contribute, Jones could easily end up in the top 5, let alone the top 12 this week.
I love Jones in this spot, having just seen this D two weeks ago. Though there should be a ton of gamesmanship on both sides, it’s hard to imagine Jones doing any worse than his QB12 finish last time these two teams met.
Prediction: 220 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs; 8 rushes, 50 yards, 1 TD = 23.8 points
RB: Gus Edwards, Baltimore Ravens
Fantasy Pros ECR: RB43
The Gus Bus hasn’t exactly been rolling as planned this season. Even with JK Dobbins out with his own recovery issues, Gus had first struggled to get on the field; then struggled some on it, finishing no higher than the PPR RB32 over his last fojur games. But back in his season debut in Week 7, Gus was the RB10 in fantasy football. Who did he face that week? Well, of course, it was the Cleveland Browns.
With the Browns on tap again this week, I like Gus to get rolling; especially with Tyler Huntley (or even Anthony Brown) behind center. No Lamar means this offense will have to rely on the ground game a ton. There should be plenty of room for Gus and Dobbins to go off against the D that cedes the 3rd most fantasy points to RBs on the season. The Browns know this, and they should stack the box a little bit more against Huntley. But Gus still should eat and at least find the end zone as the Ravens look to establish it and come away with a crucial late season victory against their division rivals.
It’s hard for me to envision a situation where Edwards doesn’t see the volume necessary to put up a respectable fantasy output in this one. I’m firing him up where I need him, and ahead of those with backup workloads.
Prediction: 15 carries, 80 yards; 0 receptions, 0 yards; 1 total TD = 15.0 points
WR: Parris Campbell, Indianapolis Colts
Fantasy Pros ECR: WR43
Parris was a preseason darling of mine; though apparently the same was not true for Matt Ryan, who didn’t target him much through the season’s first five games. But then, a target explosion occurred. Campbell saw 23 targets in Weeks 6 and 7 and proved he knew what to do with them; putting up an 18/27/2 line over the 2-week span.
Now, Campbell and the Colts O have again cooled off. Additionally, there’s not much left to play for in a lost season where they’ve already parted ways with their head coach and shuffled QBs in and out of the lineup. Yet Campbell’s snap share has remained relatively consistent; while also having a few spike games since he blew up two months ago.
This week, he’ll face a Minnesota defense that is hemorrhaging points to the WR position. The unit is currently the 2nd worst in the league when it comes to giving it up to wide receivers, and they’ve been pretty terrible against slots as well. All of this bodes well for Campbell, who should be necessary as the Colts should be playing from behind in this one.
I like Parris to see plenty of volume in a matchup that suits his skillset. Campbell should be the 2nd target in the passing game this week, so I like his chances to score as well.
Prediction: 6 receptions, 50 yards, 1 TD = 17.0 points
TE: Chigoziem Okonkwo, Tennessee Titans
Fantasy Pros ECR: TE14
Sometimes talent, necessity, and usage come together in such a way as to create a tremendous opportunity for a young player. Such is the case for rookie TE Chig Okonkwo in 2022; and, so far, he’s made the most of his opportunity.
Finishing as the PPR TE8 and TE3 in fantasy football in back-to-back weeks, the stars are aligning for Okonkwo. Especially while fellow rookie and teammate Treylon Burks has been out of the lineup. Throughout the 2-week span, Chig has earned 11 targets, catching 10 of them for 113 yards and a touchdown. This week, he has a chance to build on that total, as the Titan head to LA to face the Chargers. While Derek Henry should run all over the LA D, Treylon Burks has still yet to see the practice field this week. That should keep the opportunities flowing to Okonkwo in a plus matchup.
With Derwin James potentially out again, everything is coming up Okonkwo once again this week. Play him regardless, but expect an even better return if both James and Burks sit.
Prediction: 5 receptions, 45 yards, 1 TD = 15.5 points
I know you’re shopping for a W in the all-important fantasy football playoffs. While I can’t guarantee you’ll get all the fantasy points you expect this week, I can vouch for these discount buys that should help make your Sunday a little bit brighter.
And, if not, at least they didn’t come with a ridiculous price tag.
Jeremy Shulman
Jeremy is an avid football fan from New York who lives in Amsterdam and roots for the Patriots. This walking contradiction has played fantasy football for over than 20 years. He is now a Senior Dynasty Writer at The League Winners. In his spare time, he writes and edits professionally.