For many, the Christmas holiday is a time of reflection. It is a time of celebration with your loved ones. The season of giving.
Sure, Christmas is all those things. But, for me, it’s also a time to get some much needed rest.
Unfortunately, that hasn’t happened this year. With a new puppy now a part of the family, our lives revolve around the 3-month old pooch for a little longer while he gets his bearings and learns how to behave in his new home.
Now, you may think me a stickler, but in this house, one of those ways is to not eat items off the sidewalk that will then cause bouts of explosive diarrhea in the middle of the night. That’s right, 4am last night was the second such night I’ve awoken from a slumber of sugar plums dancing in my head to a nose full of doggie excrement. Thankfully, he’s fine, but it’s been a blast; both literally… and literally.
But, the point of my story is this, sometime those things that are worth it are hard. Unlike my pup, who is playing it fast and loose with his movements, it’s time for you and your fantasy football lineup moves to be rock solid; relying on the guys that got you there. But we all know that injury and ineffective play can cripple even the best of teams.
So, this Christmas, be sure to ask Santa for an injury-free roster and some terrific production when you sit on his lap at your local mall. And, if you’re lucky, you’ll rest well on Christmas night, knowing your ticket to the championship has been secured; instead of waking in the middle of the night, with an unwelcome stench in the air that you just can’t place.
For now though, let’s have a look at how Week 15 went for my picks. I’ll give you a whiff of what’s to come… It’s about to get explosive…
Week 15 Review
Daniel Jones, QB – Well, this wasn’t great at all. 0 TDs from your QB is never gonna cut it; and Jones couldn’t even manage 200 total yards. Though it was a victory for the G-Men, starting DJ likely meant you faced a stark defeat in the fantasy football quarterfinals.
On the flip side, Saquon Barkley feasted on the Commanders D. He racked up 120 all-purpose yards, catching 5 balls and punching it into the end zone as well. He finished as the RB7 on the week. Some of the production could have gone to Jones. Or, he even could have found a way to get his pass catchers more involved. But, now we can fully appreciate what an NFL-caliber defense – especially one led by Ron Rivera and staff – can do to a solid NFL offense when given three weeks in a row and a prior game to study them. It’s a W for the Giants on the road, but an L for me, sadly.
- projected: 220/1/0 passing; 8/50/1 rushing
- actual: 160/0/0 passing; 10/35/0 rushing
Gus Edwards, RB – Edwards was incredibly efficient last week against a hapless Cleveland Browns run defense. The problem is, he only earned himself 7 touches in a game where the Ravens only put up 3 points. If Gus had found the end zone, his line would’ve been acceptable. Also, if teammate and starter JK Dobbins hadn’t doubled up Edwards’s touch total and ran for nearly 10 yards per carry (to Gus’s mere 7.8), then maybe we’re having a different conversation. Instead, Edwards’s lack of passing game involvement, pure backup status and missing starting QB amounted to a day to forget. L again.
- projected: 15/80/1 rushing; 0/0/0 receiving
- actual: 7/55/0 rushing; 0/0/0 receiving
Parris Campbell, WR – Campbell’s Colts were electric in the first half of Sunday’s game, posting a 33-0 lead at the half. Though some of that offense was generated on defense and special teams, it’s still concerning that no receiver outside of Michael Pittman recorded more than 2 catches. What’s more, Matt Ryan only managed 19 completions on 33 pass attempts while facing a Vikings D that has given up the 6th most fantasy points to QBs; not to mention giving up the 3rd most to WRs this season. It was a full-on offensive implosion that has now seemingly cost Ryan his starting job for the remainder of the season. Yikes. Big L.
- projected: 6/50/1
- actual: 2/13/0
Chigoziem Okonkwo, TE – Chig managed to get it done yet again in the absence of Treylon Burks. Unfortunately for your fantasy football team, his 4 receptions and 60 total yards didn’t come with a TD. While he’s been hyper efficient and has looked great on tape, there is still just not enough passing volume in this offense now led by Malik Willis. While Tannehill’s ankle and Tannehill decided to head in different directions last week, Willis just didn’t do much of anything to elevate or even sustain this passing game. With Tannehill feared out for the season – and at least very likely out this week – Burks on his way back and Willis behind center, I’m likely done with Chig for the rest of the fantasy season.
- projected: 5/40/1
- actual: 4/54/0 receiving; 1/6/0 rushing
Though you’ve been busy juggling 13 million requests at work, here’s hoping you can find your rest in the days ahead. And one way to do that is by reading the fine print…
So, here’s a look at how I define fantasy football sleepers and my wins and losses in their selection:
- Players ranked outside of the QB12, RB30, WR40 and TE12 for a given week based on the weekly PPR Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) on Fantasy Pros are eligible to be chosen. That’s roughly guys at or beyond the consensus top-100.
- For a player to ‘hit’, I’m requiring a finish just about within the top-60 overall players. That means he was a serviceable starting piece that contributed meaningfully to your lineup; and he also exceeded expectations in a significant way. Historically, he put up at least 15 PPR points.
- For QBs and TEs, I’ll require a top-8 finish, though very close calls will be explored further to see if they helped you win your week.
Alright, enough of that nonsense. Let’s get on to this nonsense… and see which under-the-radar studs can help you win your semifinal matchups.
Shulman’s Sleepers: Week 16
QB: Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
Fantasy Pros ECR: QB15
I am actually not a fan of all the love Purdy has been getting in some fantasy football circles. While Mr. Irrelevant has come in for spot duty and performed admirably, I’m not ready to crown him; nor am I ready to give away Trey Lance’s job to the 7th round prospect out of Iowa State. Buuuut, he’s still a threat to put up points in a Shanny offense.
This week Purdy will go up against the Washington Commanders, who have been mired in Giants film for three straight weeks. But, with Chase Young expected to make his long-awaited return to the field, it could be a bit more difficult than usual for opposing QBs to operate. That said, the Commanders D has more often been beaten through the air than on the ground this year. Given that the secondary still hasn’t quite gelled with one another and that they’ve faced a squad in the Giants with hardly any viable passing game weapons left, Purdy and the 9ers should find this D a little more forgiving than Daniel Jones did.
Purdy will have the full complement of San Francisco’s arsenal at his disposal. CMC will elevate his floor while Deebo and Aiyuk can increase his ceiling. I’m expecting modest enough returns, but that should still be enough for a very good day at home.
Prediction: 220 yards, 3 TD, 0 INTs; 5 rushes, 15 yards, 0 TD = 22.3 points
RB: AJ Dillon, Green Bay Packers
Fantasy Pros ECR: RB32
Dillon’s 2 TDs last week were a surprise; mostly because the Packers offense hasn’t, or hasn’t been able to, run wild over opposing defenses this season. But against a Rams D that has all but mailed it in, AJD earn 71 all-purpose yards and finished as the PPR RB9 on the week.
In fact, Dillon has been the RB13, RB6 and RB9 in fantasy football over the past three weeks. Now he’ll face the Miami Dolphins, who continue to give up fantasy points all over the field. Aaron Jones should get most of his usual work, but Dillon’s health should allow for a few more totes than normal as the Packers hope to extend Jones’ life for the remainder of the season. He’s been dealing with a knee issue, but there’s no reason I can see that both backs can’t finish as top-12 options on the week once again.
AJD has had a nose for the end zone of late, scoring in three straight. I’d be pretty surprised if he can’t find paydirt yet again this week.
Prediction: 12 carries, 55 yards; 3 receptions, 25 yards; 1 total TD = 17.0 points
WR: Isaiah Hodgins, New York Giants
Fantasy Pros ECR: WR49
Hodgins was a supreme disappointment last week; but as we mentioned above, so were all Giants not named Saquon. He had been propping up his production with TDs the past few weeks, but he couldn’t find one in Week 15, leading to just 4 catches for 37 scoreless yards.
The Giants are free of their Commanders purgatory, and now head to Minnesota to take on the Vikings still-pretty-awful pass D. Though they inexplicably fared well against the Colts last week, they’re still the 3rd worst unit against fantasy WRs, while being somewhat stingier to the run game. We know the Vikings will put up points at home, so it’s just a matter of how much the Giants can keep up. With Saquon potentially a little less involved this week, there should be room for Giants pass-catchers, and especially Hodgins, to find success yet again.
Gimme the odds of Hodgins scoring again and I’ll gladly take them. You’re banking on a TD here but, honestly, we’re doing that with all these fantasy football sleeper picks, aren’t we?
Prediction: 5 receptions, 40 yards, 1 TD = 15.0 points
TE: Taysom Hill, New Orleans Saints
Fantasy Pros ECR: TE14
I’ll be honest. I was a Taysom lover because former head coach Sean Payton was a Taysom lover. I expected him to win the QB battle over Jameis Winston; because Sean Payton seemingly wanted him to twin the QB battle over Jameis Winston. But now that Payton’s gone and Hill has converted to TE, I’ve avoided him nearly as much as I lauded him last season.
But it’s hard to ignore the impact that weather is going to have on this Saints/Browns game on Saturday. In fact, it’s trending to be one of the coldest games in Browns history. With potential snow, 60 mph wind gusts and a wind chill of -20 on tap, passing games should be completely nullified. Therefore, I’d expect a heavy dose of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt for the Browns, and whoever is available to run the ball for New Orleans.
Alvin Kamara is available, but Dwayne Washington is not. The Saints are signing guys off the street in recent weeks in hopes that any back can stay healthy enough to complement Kamara. So, give me Taysom as the likely most-effective option behind center in what should be a wild weather game.
The Saints have little left to lose, so looking to crush Cleveland with a read-option attack with both Olave and Landry on the shelf anyway could lead to a very good day from everyone’s favorite TE-eligible quarterback.
Prediction: 60 yards passing; 12 carries, 60 yards; 1 total TD = 14.4 points
You better not pout, you better not cry. You better not shout about starters going down with injury now that you know who you can plug in instead. Here’s to plenty of Christmas joy and points as the fantasy football season looks to go belly up in just a couple weeks’ time.
Merry Christmas to all… and to all a good semis!
Jeremy Shulman
Jeremy is an avid football fan from New York who lives in Amsterdam and roots for the Patriots. This walking contradiction has played fantasy football for over than 20 years. He is now a Senior Dynasty Writer at The League Winners. In his spare time, he writes and edits professionally.