Fantasy Football 2022: Shulman’s Sleepers – Week 17

Ah, the culmination of our fantasy football season has arrived at last. We’ve laughed, we’ve cried. We’ve slept in odd positions and in less-than-suitable surroundings. But we’ve managed to make it through to, presumably, the championship.

So as the slate on the closing weekend of the 2022 fantasy season approaches, there’s not much left to do but feverishly check the ridiculous injury notifications coming through the wire and pray that a deep sleeper can perform when and if called upon.

Look, it’s far from ideal to be relying on the likes of Isaiah Hodgins and Brock Purdy, as I advised last week. But, if you did, chances are you had a decent day and may have even made the ship as a result. And if not, well, you’re likely the butt of all your friends’ jokes; almost as if you were the first one to fall asleep at the party.

As we ring in the New Year and say goodbye for good to all things 2022, just remember that this may be your last chance in quite some time to secure a title. Get that ‘ship however you can, even if you have to go to extreme measures to do so.

But before I dole out my in-case-of-emergency starts for Week 17, let’s see how I did with my calls last week.

Week 16 Review

Brock Purdy, QB – Purdy didn’t hurt you too bad this week, finishing as the QB13 overall. Problem was, he managed less than 17 fantasy points; throwing for 2 TDs, sure, but with limited yardage and no rushing upside. Given the circumstances of helming a ship full of potential champions, Purdy’s doing very well. Unfortunately, that’s not really translating into more than slightly usable outputs. Purdy is limiting turnovers, posting exceptional QB ratings, and winning reality games. Sadly, fantasy requires more than game-management at the position to be effective. Not a total L, but not a clear W either.

• projected: 220/3/0 passing; 5/15/0 rushing
• actual: 234/2/1 passing; 1/6/0 rushing

AJ Dillon, RB – As the RB19 on the week, Dillon was a clear cut RB2 and finished well above his RB32 projections. We’ll take that as a win for this column. But his 12.8 PPR points weren’t exactly lighting your fantasy football lineups on fire. It was a down week for scoring overall, so Dillon’s day is inflated slightly by the weather issues across the league. Yet, he remained very involved. He posted double-digit carries for the 3^rd straight week; earning 3 targets and ultimately finding the end zone, saving his day.

• projected: 12/55/1 rushing; 3/25/0 receiving
• actual: 11/36/1 rushing; 2/12/0 receiving

Isaiah Hodgins, WR – Hodgins absolutely went off last week. He doubled his target count from any one game this season and secured 8 balls for 89 yards and a score. It was a monster effort for Daniel Jones’ now most-trusted pass-catcher; and it has done nothing to incur a lack of faith in the minds of fantasy managers. Now with 3 TDs in four games, Hodgins is a legitimate flex option and weapon for this offense; who has faced Washington, Philadelphia and Minnesota during Hodgins’s string of successful games. He’s run the gamut of stingy to forgiving secondaries over the span, but he definitely proved why he should be a weekly flex option with a WR7 overall finish in this one. Big W.

• projected: 5/40/1
• actual: 8/89/1

Taysom Hill, TE – The fantasy football enigma that keeps on enigma-ing. Hill was once again a TE1 this week, posting 11.6 PPR points and finishing ahead of names like Waller, Goedert, Kmet and Andrews. The TE position is truly a crap shoot most weeks, so the gamble on Hill paid off; even as he did nothing outside of the rushing column on the stat sheet. Still, it was a good effort, slotting him in between Kenneth Walker and Nick Chubb as the RB22 on the week. It was a worth it if you took the chance on Taysom in the extreme weather conditions in Cleveland. So I’ll take yet another W for a solid play at a position where you need a little extra love in hotly contested matchups.

• projected: 60/0/0 passing; 12/60/1 rushing
• actual: 0/0/0 receiving; 9/56/1 rushing

It was a great week. Now before we get to it, let’s have a look at how I define fantasy football sleepers and my wins and losses in their selection:

1. Players ranked outside of the QB12, RB30, WR40 and TE12 for a given week based on the weekly PPR Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) on Fantasy Pros are eligible to be chosen. That’s roughly guys at or beyond the consensus top-100.
2. For a player to ‘hit’, I’m requiring a finish just about within the top-60 overall players. That means he was a serviceable starting piece that contributed meaningfully to your lineup; and he also exceeded expectations in a significant way. Historically, he put up at least 15 PPR points.
   1. For QBs and TEs, I’ll require a top-8 finish, though very close calls will be explored further to see if they helped you win your week.

And now it’s time to get your hats on and party like its 1999, where the most entertaining even of the evening could be dressing your sleeping friend up like a charcuterie board. Anyway, let’s hit it…

Shulman’s Sleepers: Week 17

QB: Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers

Fantasy Pros ECR: QB15

Yes, I chose Purdy in this exact spot last week. And, yes, he was the ECR QB15 last week as well. But I can’t get away from the fact that he’s going up against a reeling Vegas squad that should offer next to nothing in terms of defense.

To be clear, it is at least possible that the 9ers go up big early and never look back; pounding 4^th and 5^th-string RBs into the line for the entire second half to end things more quickly. Without Derek Carr, Chandler Jones and any direction, the rudderless Raiders don’t have much of a prayer of competing in this one. However, a little competition early on would help Purdy a ton. Deebo may not play once again, but the combination of Kittle, Aiyuk and CMC are enough to make any ol’ QB relevant. Again, I’m looking for the efficiency to hold while the matchup continues to get weaker.

Give me another shot at Purdy to achieve a top-8 finish this week. It’s absolutely in his range of outcomes for this one.

Prediction: 210 yards, 3 TD, 0 INTs; 5 rushes, 15 yards, 0 TD =  21.9 points

RB: James Cook, Buffalo Bills

Fantasy Pros ECR: RB36

The Bills put on an absolute clinic last week, as they ran all over the hapless Bears D in the second half. Devin Singletary, Josh Allen and even Cook all found the end zone on the ground; making for quite the blowout when all was said and done.

While last week’s fantasy football production may have been an anomaly, it’s also (at least in part) a sign of things to come. Cook earned a near even split with Singletary and was just as efficient with his workload. Now against a much better defense in Cincinnati, Buffalo will have to figure out how to generate offense. To my mind, this puts Singletary at a disadvantage, with the more explosive Cook, now ready to takeover, with the better chance to do some damage.

With a stout front 7 that gives up little on the ground, Cook could find some production through the air. Especially given the fact that the Bengals are a top contender, this game has all the makings of an early playoff game. And it should be one where Buffalo unleashes it’s new backfield weapon.

Prediction: 7 carries, 30 yards; 5 receptions, 35 yards; 1 total TD = 17.5 points

WR: Romeo Doubs, Green Bay Packers

Fantasy Pros ECR: WR48

Christian Watson has been a revelation this season for the Packers. The early 2^nd round draft pick has done nothing this season but post fantasy league-winning numbers since he got healthy; and it all clicked for him in Week 10. But now he’s hurt again, so that should open the door once more for fellow-rookie Doubs.

Doubs has had injury struggles of his own this season, but he was absolutely lighting the NFL on fire early in the year. Aaron Rodgers is notorious for needing to trust his wideouts; and he’s trusted Doubs on his way to five 14+ PPR point games this season. Now he’ll face an atrocious Minnesota defense that just gave up everything possible to the entire Giants receiving corps and Danny Jones; all of whom are less talented than what Green Bay is working with.

I expect the Pack to be able to move the ball, but also to cede points in bunches to their division rivals. Back in Week 1, the Vikings won handily. This time around, Green Bay should be able to keep up offensively, which should mean good things for Doubs.

Prediction: 5 receptions, 50 yards, 1 TD = 16.0 points

TE: Logan Thomas, Washington Commanders

Fantasy Pros ECR: TE23

Of course, we know TE is a crapshoot for fantasy football. So why not bet on the talent of Thomas as Carson Wentz climbs back into the saddle for the Commanders in a home date with the Cleveland Browns.

If nothing else, we know that Thomas is heathy, seemingly all the way back from his neck injury and continuing to perform at a high level. Last week, he earned 8 targets, converting 6 of them for 35 scoreless yards. But that was with Taylor Heinicke at the helm. Now with Wentz, Thomas gets a chance to see the type of usage he did at the start of the season; all while the Commanders search for production without Antonio Gibson.

Many of the Commanders offensive weapons should be in store for decent days, but I’d bet that Thomas has a good chance to find the end zone as well.

Prediction: 4 receptions, 40 yards, 1 TD = 14.0 points

Well, it’s the end of the line. All that’s left is to sing Auld Lang Syne, drink far too much champagne, and celebrate your victory this weekend after a couple of fantasy football sleepers help you take home the chip.

And, while you’re getting some much needed shut eye, just make sure you’re not being turned into an all-you-can-eat buffet in the process.

Good luck and until next season!