Fantasy Football 2022: Shulman’s Sleepers – Week 3

How rested am I on a scale of 1 to rested? I’m an, ‘actually-not-that-rested-at-all’, sadly. Why you ask? Well, for starters, my fantasy football teams hit an unexpected early-season skid in Week 2. To top it off, my sleepers didn’t hit – again.

Well, I’m being slightly hyperbolic, but not by much. Injured or ineffective, up-and-down play has cost me early on. I feel like I’ve gotten plenty of much needed sleep, but slept too long; and now I can’t function properly in the morning.

So what’s the remedy? Well, I could easily look to fall asleep at the wheel and chalk it up to some bad luck. After all, I’ve done that before, many years ago. But these days, the only answer is to keep grinding. Refine the process and look to build on what went right while eliminating what went wrong.

It’s difficult to be sure, but you don’t take the fast lane to easy street by pulling over and taking a cat nap; or weeping into the steering wheel, for that matter.

So let’s blow through my Week 2 calls and keep on moving toward a more positive and productive Week 3. After all, there’s nowhere to go here but up.

Week 2 in Review

Trey Lance, QB – Lance had a case of the Prescotts this week; as he went one direction when he stood up after a tough hit in the second quarter and his ankle went another. Fortunately, his surgery was successful and his injury was slightly less severe than Dak’s was. Unfortunately, Lance is out for the season and, of course, didn’t come back in this one. Yet, in roughly 3 quarters of work, Jimmy Garoppolo managed to become the QB14 that was predicted for Lance by FantasyPros ECR. Though the style of play is dramatically different, we’ll still compare the projected numbers;, it’s better than just taking the L and moving on. Now, to take the L… moving on…

• Projected (Lance): 20/1/1 passing, 75/1 rushing
• Actual (Garoppolo): 154/1/0 passing, 5/1 yards rushing

Melvin Gordon, RB – I went back to the Melvin well this week because, well, how could it get any worse than a fumble on the 1 yard line? Whelp, the answer turned out to be that it could, due to some underwhelming usage and poor efficiency. Given the offense’s only TD against the Texans went to current 3^rd string TE Eric Saubert, this was yet another disappointing outing for Gordon. Coupled with the fact that Javonte Williams may be starting to pull away with the lion’s share of quality looks, it’s unlikely I back Gordon again this season.

• Projected: 11/65/1 rushing, 2/20/0 receiving
• Actual: 10/47/0 rushing, 1/6/0 receiving

Donovan Peoples-Jones, WR – After a nice effort in Week 1, DPJ came back down to earth in Week 2. Had I been able to select Joshua Palmer (who was my original choice before I realized he played on Thursday night), I could’ve earned a W. Instead, Amari Cooper’s 9/101/1 line dominated the day in a Browns last-minute, soul-crushing loss to the Jets. DPJ nearly caught a TD in this one, but he just couldn’t get the toe of his second foot to stay inbounds. Thus, he finished as the WR113 in fantasy football on the week  – with absolutely no fantasy points. The RBs crushed instead; and I end up with another big L.

• Projected: 5/60/1
• Actual: 0/0/0

Logan Thomas, TE – I’m giving myself the W here and you can’t stop me. Not sorry. The fantasy football TE9 on the week got it done and found the end zone, despite finishing tied for 4th in the target pecking order on his own team. But Thomas made the most of his opportunity, securing 3 of 4 targets for 37 yards and a score. He’s a TD-dependent option moving forward, but I’ll take the W here as he moved from TE21 all the way up to TE9 with the score.

• Projected: 5/45/1
• Actual: 3/37/1

Aside from Lance’s injury and a tough day for DPJ, I’m generally hitting on usage. Unfortunately, the TDs continue to be – as everyone preaches relentlessly at this point – incredibly difficult to predict. But now that there’s more actual season data, things should be getting a bit easier to decipher… should be.

Now, before we drive straight into Week 3, here’s a reminder of how I’m defining fantasy football sleepers and my wins and losses in their selection:

1. Players ranked outside of the QB12, RB30, WR40 and TE12 for a given week based on the weekly PPR Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) on Fantasy Pros are eligible to be chosen. That’s roughly guys at or beyond the consensus top-100.
2. For a player to ‘hit’, I’m requiring a finish just about within the top-60 overall players. That means he was a serviceable starting piece that contributed meaningfully to your lineup; and he also exceeded expectations in a significant way. Historically, he put up at least 15 PPR points.
   1. For QBs and TEs, I’ll require a top-8 finish, though very close calls will be explored further to see if they helped you win your week.

Now for the good stuff.

Shulman’s Sleepers: Week 3

QB: Jared Goff, Detroit Lions

Fantasy Pros ECR: QB16 

I normally don’t like to chase production. I also have a hard time buying into the hype generated by Hard Knocks; when an entire team enters your living room and you succumb to the powers of television production and root for your favorite guys. But, damnit, I love the Detroit Lions. Now through two weeks, they’re 1-1, narrowly losing out to a stout Eagles team in Week 1 only to thoroughly handle a hot Commanders squad last week. Plus, Jared Goff has been on it thus far this season.

Goff is currently the QB9 in fantasy football, having thrown 6 TDs to just 1 INT thus far this season. This week, he’ll travel to Minnesota to take on a struggling Vikings secondary where age – both the old and the young – have been liabilities in the early going. Assuming Amon-Ra St. Brown remains hot and Goff can continue to spread the ball around to his near-elite level playmakers, I like his success to continue in Week 3, even on the road.

Goff should light it up two weeks in a row; as the shootout we expected last week finally makes its way to Minneapolis.

Prediction: 280 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT; 2 rushes, 8 yards = 22 points

RB: Rashaad Penny, Seattle Seahawks

Fantasy Pros ECR: RB34

Yes the return of Kenneth Walker III and Penny’s reduced workload from a week ago are major concerns. However, there is absolutely no way that Seattle gets game-scripted out of this one like they did last week – hopefully.

Penny and company should have plenty of work against a mediocre team on both sides of the ball. This one should be close and allow the Hawks to lean on their two bellcow backs to carry the all-too-heavy rushing load in Week 3, just like they want. I’m betting Penny gets close to what he earned in Week 1 in terms of volume and production, while KWIII increases his load as well. This effort should help them earn another W in the process.

I expect a heavy-run script and plenty of fantasy football production from Penny this week. Walker is still getting up to speed himself anyway, so it’s wheels up for Rashaad in Week 3.

Prediction: 12 carries, 55 yards; 2 receptions, 15 yards; 1 TD = 16 points 

WR: Treylon Burks, Tennessee Titans

Fantasy Pros ECR: WR47

I had DeVonta Smith in this spot yesterday, but he rose a few spots and became ineligible. So, I’m going with Burks; whose encouraging early usage has converted me from a hater, to a maybe-I-might-just-possibly-kinda-be-a believer. In just two weeks, Burks has converted 11 targets into 7 receptions for 102 yards, though he has yet to register a touchdown.

That’s likely to change in Week 3. Burks comes back home to face a Raiders squad that has allowed a couple of pretty good offenses to eat early on, especially in the middle of the field. The PFF ranked 29th best secondary from the preseason should have an easier time defending the run-centric Titans, but Burks is the target leader on a team desperate to find its offense after a few disappointing Derek Henry games. I expect Henry will get going in this one, opening up the play action passing game. And that, in turn, should give Burks a chance to rack up the yardage and find the end zone.

Despite already putting up very solid production so far, it seems the ceiling for Burks is significantly higher. If there was a window to buy low, it may evaporate after this weekend.

Prediction: 5 receptions, 70 yards, 1 TD = 18 points

TE: Irv Smith Jr., Minnesota Vikings

Fantasy Pros ECR: TE15

As mentioned above, the Lions play the Vikings this week. Given the problems both have on defense – along with the success both have had on offense – I like this game to trend toward a shootout. While we know Justin Jefferson should get his, there is room on this team for a #2 passing option to step up.

Last week, that #2 option was Smith, who out targeted Adam Thielen on the day. He ended up with a 5 for 36 line and even found the end zone, vaulting him from relative obscurity in fantasy football circles. Now, seemingly with health and the trust of his QB, he’ll need to be relied upon once again to eat up targets in the middle of the field. Rookie LB Malcom Rodriguez has been pretty solid, but Irv is still fast and athletic enough to find space and help the Vikings move the ball consistently.

Irv was one of my favorite offseason candidates for a target boost. Now over his recent thumb surgery, he should again be in line for a productive day.

Prediction: 5 receptions, 50 yards, 1 TD = 16 points

Good luck in Week 3. Here’s hoping you drive yourself crazy making difficult lineup decisions this week!