Reading is difficult.
When we were children, it took us years to learn simple and compound words, discover how to build sentences, and fine tune our understanding of constructions and permutations that help us to grasp the proper use of language. As we grow older (and wiser), we further expand our faculties to assess and apply complex configurations to our already solid base. And, it’s an ongoing process. We are always tweaking and adjusting our development; progressing whether we realize or not.
And, to be sure, this is all incredibly exhausting.
But we do – or we should do – this in other areas of our lives as well. If you’re like me, your constantly looking for ways to improve your knowledge and know-how when it comes to fantasy football. Watching the games, reviewing the stats, and churning the feed of information is a never-ending grind. But all that studying has to help, right? ..RIGHT?!
At least last week’s column was a bit better than the weeks before. The problem is that as we get more knowledgable, so do the experts; and, thus, the average fantasy football players. We’re still looking for an edge over the masses. And we’ll keep looking, feverishly pouring through the reams of data at our disposal to make the best picks possible.
But before we do that, it’s accountability time.
Week 4 Review
Jacoby Brissett, QB – Down 10-0 early to the Falcons, Brissett turned it on in the 2nd quarter. He ran in a score and hit on a deep bomb near halftime; where Donovan Peoples-Jones was brought down on the 1 yard line. In the second half, however, this game turned into a ball-control fest for both sides. Reliance on the running game sucked the life out of the remaining clock, and the ball. In such a script, Brissett did little beyond Brissett’s rushing TD, although he did chuck the ball around the yard 35 times. With AJ Terrell and the Falcons secondary locking down Amari Cooper, there wasn’t much else to be done. Moving from a QB23 to QB16 is decent, but it doesn’t move the needle for our fantasy football teams. All in all, a disappointing L for me and the Browns this week.
- projected: 220/2/0; 4/18/1
- actual: 234/0/1; 5/16/1
Rashaad Penny, RB – I went back to the well on the Rashaad Penny breakout game and was handsomely rewarded this week. After a supremely disappointing effort against a surprisingly stout Atlanta D last week, Penny ran all over a consistently overmatched Detroit unit that is at or near the bottom of the league in most defensive metrics this season. As for Penny, he blew even my strong expectations out of the water; rushing for over 150 yards and 2 scores for an unexpectedly potent ‘Hawks offense. I’ll take a massive W here; and all the points along with it as I started this week’s PPR RB4 everywhere.
- projected: 6/85/1; 2/10/0
- actual: 17/151/2; 1/6/0
Richie James, WR – WR has been my weak spot this year in fantasy football. Even the top-tier guys are finding issues with consistency. Defensive schemes and an all-around focus on stopping elite passing games has translated to wins for teams heavily invested in shutting down teams like last year’s Rams and Bengals. Now, no one will mistake the Giants for any of those elite offenses; but I at least expected (like many) that James would earn a healthy dose of targets as the only semi-viable weapon left healthy in the passing game. Alas, targets are earned, and James clearly is no #1 WR. Instead, New York went run-heavy to earn the W. They threw the ball just 16 times compared to 44 rush attempts. The 82 total passing yards didn’t help anyone. Oh, and as for James; he finished as the WR139, earning you negative fantasy points for a fumbled punt. He only finishing ahead of 2 other punt muffers at the position this week. My biggest L to date.
- projected: 6/50/1
- actual: 1/9/0
Robert Tonyan, TE –If you started Tonyan, you were happy enough with the result. When a TE gets in the end zone, it tends to work out for you in fantasyland. Unfortunately, Rodgers didn’t look much to Tonyan outside of the TD strike; as the Patriots struggled more with Allen Lazard and Romeo Doubs on the day. The Pack barely won this one in OT; so exploiting the TE advantage they had could have worked in their favor. Instead, Tonyan’s line ended up being pedestrian; though I won’t take the W here for a mere TE12 performance.
- projected: 5/55/1
- actual: 2/22/1
I’ll look to make good at WR this week, but a near miss at TE and a huge hit on RB have me optimistic for the first time this season. We have as much information as we ever have in 2022. Let’s find ourselves some deep sleepers for Week 5.
Before we completely close the book on Week 4, here’s a reminder of how I’m defining fantasy football sleepers and my wins and losses in their selection:
- Players ranked outside of the QB12, RB30, WR40 and TE12 for a given week based on the weekly PPR Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) on Fantasy Pros are eligible to be chosen. That’s roughly guys at or beyond the consensus top-100.
- For a player to ‘hit’, I’m requiring a finish just about within the top-60 overall players. That means he was a serviceable starting piece that contributed meaningfully to your lineup; and he also exceeded expectations in a significant way. Historically, he put up at least 15 PPR points.
- For QBs and TEs, I’ll require a top-8 finish, though very close calls will be explored further to see if they helped you win your week.
Time to write our story this week. Let’s make it a legendary tale, worthy of heroic praise…
Shulman’s Sleepers: Week 5
QB: Teddy Bridgewater, Miami Dolphins
Fantasy Pros ECR: QB19
Once again, it is very difficult to choose a QB this week for fantasy football. Last week, Geno Smith and Jared Goff were the correct answers; though their dominance seemed to catch nearly everyone in the community off guard. But with Trevor Lawrence just out of my grasp this week as ECR’s QB12, I’m looking far down the list once again and riding with, of course, Teddy Two Gloves.
Teddy Bridgewater looked decent in relief of a twice-concussed Tagovailoa in Week 4. He threw for 193 yards and a TD; while also gifting a pick to the Bengals D on a poorly thrown deep ball down the right sideline. HC Mike McDaniel schemed up a ton of short crossers, comebacks, and flat routes that helped Teddy get comfortable. That should also play nicely against a Jets unit that struggles up front. Though the deep and even intermediate passing game could prove difficult for Teddy, I’m confident that Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle can help move the ball downfield while providing some serious YAC in the process.
The Jets logging some of the league’s worst pressure numbers this season. Yet they also employing stoutness up the middle in the form of DLs Quinnen Williams and Sheldon Rankins, ILBs CJ Mosley and Kwon Alexander, and safety LaMarcus Joyner. The Dolphins should be able to exploit space on the edges and find success against a familiar foe.
Prediction: 260 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT; 4 rushes, 25 yards = 20.9 points
RB: Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars
Fantasy Pros ECR: RB33
I considered going with Isiah Pacheco or even Kenneth Gainwell here, both of whom should see cake matchups. But the team RB2 I’m going to roll with this week is none other than everyone’s preseason darling for two years in a row: Travis Etienne.
It’s been a struggle for Etienne to get going this season. HC Doug Pederson has opted to hand the ball to all-around superstar back James Robinson a ton in the early going. After all, that strategy has worked and helped the Jags remain competitive this year. They have two close losses and two blowout wins against good teams. Now they face the Texans who are not a good team, despite a defense that has played well all season against the pass. Against the run, however, they’re dead last in the league; at least when it comes to giving up fantasy points to backs. I’d expect a heavy dose of both Robinson and Etienne in this one, and another Jags W.
I’m smashing the over on Etienne’s current averages of 8.5 carries and 2.75 targets. If things get out of hand quickly, maybe he gets a little more run than the oft-injured Robinson as Pederson attempts to preserve the heartbeat of this offense.
Prediction: 11 carries, 60 yards; 4 receptions, 30 yards; 1 TD = 19.0 points
WR: Isaiah McKenzie / Khalil Shakir, Buffalo Bills
Fantasy Pros ECR: WR53/WR87
For the same reason that (spoiler alert) Gabe Davis will be my fantasy football start of the week in Week 4, McKenzie and Shakir are my co-starts in this sleeper column. The reason is simple: I want parts of this elite offense. Especially when going up against inferior defenses. Without TJ Watt and with a hobbled Minkah Fitzpatrick, that’s exactly what Pittsburgh’s unit is.
My choice of the two is clearly McKenzie, who has caught a touchdown in 3 of 4 games this season. But given he’s still working his way through the league’s more-stringent-than-ever concussion protocol, I’ll gladly play Shakir in his place. While I believe McKenzie’s absence does more for Davis than Shakir, I still like that Khalil saw 2 looks on just 25% of the snaps last week. As we should all know by now, Buffalo is one of the pass-heaviest and efficient teams in the league. They currently place top 5 in points, yards, passing plays, passing yards and passing TDs thus far.
Of course, Stefon Diggs is the clear WR1; while Gabe and Dawson Knox can both be factors. Given the Bills are one of the best offenses in the league, a bet on their weapons is never a bad play.
Prediction: 5 receptions, 55 yards, 1 TD = 16.5 points
TE: Tyler Conklin, New York Jets
Fantasy Pros ECR: TE13
Somehow, I’m not concerned to play Tyler Conklin this week; even with Zach Wilson behind center instead of superstar-maker Joe Flacco. Especially with ECR TE10 Kyle Pitts and TE14 Dawson Knox unlikely to play or be effective in Week 5 due to injury. Give me Conklin against a Dolphins D that struggles to cover TEs, and anyone else for that matter.
The Phins have been terrible against out-of-division passing offenses; but they’ve also played he Pats and Bills once already. In those games, Patriots TEs combined for a 5 for 53 line. Buffalo TEs went 8 for 69. Further, fellow TE CJ Uzomah has been working his way back from a hamstring injury. It’s allowed Conklin to soak up the second-most targets on the team to date. All of this should align for another solid outing, as Miami is likely to focus on the Jets running backs and wide receivers. Should the Jets D not be able to contain the electric weapons on the other side of the field, Wilson and company will have many more opportunities to put up fantasy points.
Conklin is the 7th most targeted TE on the 2022 season. He’s currently sitting ahead of Gerald Everett, Darren Waller and Kyle Pitts. Should this trend continue, he’ll be in for yet another good performance on Sunday in front of the home crowd.
Prediction: 5 receptions, 60 yards, 1 TD = 17.0 points
As we continue to refine our ability to read the tea leaves and print out a fantasy-friendly Week 5 in our minds, it’s important not to lose the plot. Here’s hoping your fantasy football sleepers turn out to be beauties this week.
Jeremy Shulman
Jeremy is an avid football fan from New York who lives in Amsterdam and roots for the Patriots. This walking contradiction has played fantasy football for over than 20 years. He is now a Senior Dynasty Writer at The League Winners. In his spare time, he writes and edits professionally.