Fantasy Football 2022: Shulman’s Sleepers – Week 7

My neck hurts. Maybe I wrenched it when I turned too quickly. Possibly my poor typing posture is to blame. Maybe I slept on it funny. Whatever the reason, a pain in the neck is a real pain in the neck. After all, that phrase is a phrase for a reason. Having neck pain is rough and it usually lasts a lot longer than you want it to. Similarly, the fantasy football season is lasting a lot longer than you might want it to. Especially if you’ve taken more than your fair share of Ls waiting for players to overcome nagging injuries.

It’s difficult process throughout the week of finagling your roster to pick up potential breakout players; account for another potential missed week and then decide who to jettison once inactives come through and you’re over the roster limit.

Just know I am with you. This season, be it injury, ineffective offensive play (or playcalling) or whatever makes sense to blame, has been a huge fantasy pain in the neck. It’s kept me up at night; wondering which player might possibly find their way into the end zone and finally produce for my underperforming squads.

As always with this piece, I’m looking to dive deep into Fantasy Pros Expert Consensus Rankings; to see who might have a shot to align our roster’s spine and put up some divine point totals this week. And, for whatever reason, I’m betting these players are ranked too low.

Before we anxiously crane our necks to take a peek at Week 7, let’s look back at Week 6 and see how it went.

Week 6 Review

Daniel Jones, QB – Jimmy Garoppolo (and frankly many others) were the correct play last week and somehow not Week 6’s QB17. The Ravens managed to take some pride in their poor defensive play and pull it together up front; while the back end had little difficulty – but still some difficulty – with a completely underwhelming group of Giants pass-catchers. To his credit, Jones was really good. He posted his second-highest passer rating on the season and threw 2 touchdowns against no interceptions. However, the pass rush took him down for 4 sacks on the afternoon. They also stifled his ability to escape the pocket and pick up those all-too-valuable QB rushing yards. As a result, it was a down week for Danny Dimes; and a L for my deep fantasy football sleeper QB selection.

• projected: 220 /1/ 0 passing; 8/60/1 rushing
• actual: 173/2/0 passing; 6/6/0 rushing

Rachaad White, RB – Unfortunately, it looks like White is nothing more than a stash and pray option at this point. Standalone value was the hope here, but Leonard Fournette’s dual-threat ability is just too solid; and his pass protection ability is just too valuable for the aging statue of Tom Brady. Fournette was back up to an 82% snap share last week in what did not become the blowout many expected. In fact, Tampa took the L while leaning on the run more than they had in previous weeks against an inspired Pittsburgh defensive unit. That meant far fewer opportunities for White than imagined. Thus, another L on the week.

• projected: 7/30/0 rushing; 4/40/1 receiving
• actual: 4/12/0 rushing; 3/11/0 receiving

Rondale Moore, WR – In a game where the Cardinals put up just 9 points and Kyler Murray threw for just 222 yards, it’s a bit surprising that Moore managed to have much of a fantasy day at all. Yet, he still posted 10.9 PPR points. He converted 10 targets into a 6 for 49 line. Moore’s failure to reach the end zone was especially harsh for fantasy football managers this week. Especially against a Seattle defense that, while much better than expected, should have been beatable. Unfortunately, it looks like the Cards are just in over their head this season; and any magic Kliff Kingsbury may have brought with him to the NFL has already run out. The only thing keeping the now 3-4 Cardinals afloat is the talent of Murray and the reemergence of DeAndre Hopkins from the doldrums of a 6-game suspension. None of that includes Rondale Moore, who also dudded out in Week 7. He may be droppable at this point. In any event, this may be the best it gets for him from here on out. L.

• projected:  6/70/1
• actual: 6/49/0

Taysom Hill, TE – How do you follow up a 4 TD day with over 100 yards rushing as a fantasy football TE? Well, if you’re Taysom Hill, you post a stinker in Week 6. The inexplicable and completely unpredictable Hill usage has not disappeared with the departure of Sean Payton. In fact, it may be even worse. Hill managed just 5 for 39 on the ground (that includes a 31 yard breakaway run). He failed to catch a pass while completing just 2 of 4 dropbacks in this game. With many weapons injured and the Saints needing points, they managed to veer away from Hill after the Bengals D stifled much of what he tried to do early on. Though the game was close, the Saints took a loss; and now, after this Thursday night, sit at 2-5 on the young season. To add insult to injury, Hill took a goal line screen pass to the house in Week 7. 4 for 4… yikes.

• projected: 40/0/0 passing; 8/60 yards/1 rushing; 0/0/0 receiving
• actual: 16/0/0 passing; 5/39/0 rushing; 0/0/0 receiving

So, yeah, not great. Here’s hoping Week 7 is less of a strain on your flexible spots.

And as a reminder, here’s a look at how I define fantasy football sleepers and my wins and losses in their selection:

1. Players ranked outside of the QB12, RB30, WR40 and TE12 for a given week based on the weekly PPR Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) on Fantasy Pros are eligible to be chosen. That’s roughly guys at or beyond the consensus top-100.
2. For a player to ‘hit’, I’m requiring a finish just about within the top-60 overall players. That means he was a serviceable starting piece that contributed meaningfully to your lineup; and he also exceeded expectations in a significant way. Historically, he put up at least 15 PPR points.
   1. For QBs and TEs, I’ll require a top-8 finish, though very close calls will be explored further to see if they helped you win your week.

Okay. Time to stick my neck out for a few guys ahead of Week 7. Here we go.

Shulman’s Sleepers: Week 7

QB: Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers

Fantasy Pros ECR: QB13

Jimmy G seemed like the clear-cut pick this week with a few marquee QBs on bye. He hasn’t been great for fantasy football this season, though there are a few reasons to be optimistic this week.

First, Garoppolo faces the Kansas City Chiefs. They have given up the 4^th most fantasy points to quarterbacks on the season. The overwhelming logic here is that they score in bunches so their opponents need to keep up; but their D has also been pretty poor themselves, ceding the 8^th most points, the 7^th most first downs, and the 6^th most passing yards in the league this year. They’ve also, by far, given up the most passing TDs.

Garoppolo and company should move the rock just fine in this one. Additionally, the 9ers have some defensive injuries which should open this game up a little – given how stout they’ve been. That can create more opportunity for this passing game to thrive. Last but certainly not least, the addition of All-Pro target monster Christian McCaffrey will help to support a short passing game and extend drives with both his hands and his legs. Added to a group that includes Deebo, Aiyuk and Kittle. The 49ers now have YAC stars all over the field.

Though CMC is unlikely to see a boatload of touches right away, the trade is undoubtedly a positive development for Garoppolo as early as this week. Given what this offense will have to do to keep up in this one, Jimmy G is poised for a good fantasy football day if he can consistently beat a tough KC pass rush unit.

Prediction: 280 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT; 4 rushes, 10 yards = 22.2 points

RB: Melvin Gordon, Denver Broncos

Fantasy Pros ECR: RB35

When his head coach doesn’t even want to trust him, it’s hard for fantasy football managers (and especially the experts) to do the same. Yet now mired in bye week hell, we may have no other choice. Inexplicable Week 6 benching and all; it’s time to once again head back to the MG3 well.

It’s been a rollercoaster ride of a season that saw Latavius Murray and not Gordon lead the charge for the Denver Broncos last week. Fresh off Bourbon Street, Murray earned 15 carries for an unimpressive 66 yards. By comparison, this week’s consensus RB35 toted the rock 3 times for 8 yards.

Now, ahead of Week 7, Nathanial Hackett has publicly given his vote of confidence in Gordon. Well, enough to proclaim him the starter. Meanwhile, Gordon himself admits that he was proclaimed the starter ahead of Week 6. All of this said, I’m still rolling with Melvin this week against a tough Jets front because, well, it has to get better than the 16% snap share he saw last week. The Jets have been mediocre against the run, while the Broncos are one of the league’s best units; meaning Denver should be in this one at home despite their recent offensive struggles.

In a get right game that should require a reliance on the run given Russ Wilson’s ailments, I like Gordon to get some checkdown work and a bulk of the carries. Given how good this Denver defense is, I’d be surprised if Hackett and company can afford to phase out Gordon and his ability yet again.

Prediction: 15 carries, 65 yards; 3 receptions, 30 yards; 1 TD = 18.5 points

WR: Nico Collins, Houston Texans

Fantasy Pros ECR: WR50

Collins and the Texans head to Las Vegas this week after a bye. It seems clear we can depend on a few things. First, Nico should earn more than 40 yards receiving – which he’s accomplished now in four straight games. Next, he should earn roughly 6 targets, or his per game average over the same span. Finally, the Raiders will give up plenty of points to QBs and their WRs, as they’ve done all season long.

The Raiders are miserable against the pass this season, ranking in the bottom 8 in both net yards per pass play surrendered and passing TDs. Yet they have played one fewer game than most others on those lists. They are also giving up the most QB fantasy points per game. Davis Mills has a chance to be less than terrible in this one. If Mills succeeds, so should his only two weapons in Brandin Cooks and Collins.

While Dameon Pierce should also keep the ball moving on the ground, I’ll look for Collins to both bust a big play in the passing game and be a primary beneficiary of red zone looks from Mills. The TE situation in Houston is up in the air week-to-week and Cooks is sure to see plenty of attention. I like Nico to have one his best games on the season in this one now that he’s had the extra week off to get healthy and gel further within this offense.

Week 7 could be a nice spot for Collins to breakout; though I’ll settle for a modest line that helps him find the end zone in what should be a come-from-behind effort in Vegas.

Prediction: 5 receptions, 55 yards, 1 TD = 16.5 points

TE: Daniel Bellinger, New York Giants

Fantasy Pros ECR: TE14

Daniel Bellinger isn’t anyone’s idea of an ideal streaming TE. But, if we’re being honest, neither is any TE outside of the top 5 or 6 at the position. It’s been tough to find a consistent option from within the TE2 ranks; so why not rely on las week’s PPR TE7 to get it done in a good matchup once again?

Look, we know rookie TEs don’t make a ton of noise out of the gate. We also know that it’s hard to predict week-to-week TE finishes given the heavy reliance the position has on finding the end zone. But Bellinger is now essentially the only game in town as all the Giants pass catchers have some form of injury. And, he seems to finally have a grasp of the offense. Further, last week’s 94% snap share was huge for his development. Daniel Jones entrusted 5 targets to him in a massive win over the Ravens.

This week, he has a less favorable matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars. But I don’t see how Wan’Dale Robinson and company take a ton away from him when; whether it comes to moving the ball down the field or in the red zone. If Doug Pederson is smart, and I know he is, his staff will focus on shutting down Barkley with their stud interior linebackers. That should leave plenty of room over the middle for Bellinger to operate and break free a couple of times.

His 14.8 PPR points from a week ago should once again be achievable as Saquon Barkley continues to be one of the best fantasy football players on the year. If Jacksonville can shut down Saquon, they have a decent chance at winning; so they should go all out in that regard, leaving Bellinger plenty of opportunity to seize.

Prediction: 5 receptions, 45 yards, 1 TD =  15.5 points

Week 7 has already begun with the barn burner that didn’t feel like it. Here’s hoping you can stretch your way through the bye, work out those kinks in your fantasy football roster and grab a W. And, if you do, neck a beverage of your choice during your victory celebration.