These days there’s no rest for the weary. Work, family-time, and trying to learn Dutch are getting in the way of the valuable hours needed each week to research and write about fantasy football… not to mention actually manage my rosters. So when it comes to sleeping, I’ll take it wherever and whenever I can get it as I’m stretching my days to fit it all in.
If you’re anything like me, this is also one of the busiest times of the fantasy season. Trade deadlines are looming, players are starting to solidify in terms of their roles and production, and reality and fantasy teams alike are looking more and more like contenders or pretenders.
Hopefully, you’ve got more in contention than not; but either way, it’s a crucial time of year to make league-altering deals and waiver wire adds.
It’s absolutely exhausting, but in order to stay on track and avoid your championship train leaving the station without you. It’s imperative to stay alert and keep grinding; especially with six teams on bye in Week 9.
Before we determine this week’s deep sleepers, let’s see how we managed to hang in there last weekend.
Week 8 Review
Jared Goff, QB – Goff finished up as a top-5 QB in terms of yardage last week. Unfortunately, Detroit’s two other TDs went to Jamaal Williams. The Lions were unable to score after halftime in a Dolphins’ come-from-behind victory. Goff had a nice day early, but nothing late helped him to a QB16 finish. Not exactly what fantasy football managers were hoping for. Additionally, since he offers nothing with his legs (amassing just 3 yards on one carry), Goff is completely TD dependant. He remains a stark reminder of the dangers of relying on immobile QBs when streaming. Though not ideal in terms of production, Goff was still a good bet; though Taylor Heinicke, Marcus Mariota and Justin Fields were all better options. This was a tough L.
- projected: 280/3/1; 2/18/0
- actual: 321/1/0; 1/3/0
D’Onta Foreman, RB – One of my better calls on the season. Foreman ran all over the hapless Atlanta D, rumbling for 118 yards for the second-straight Sunday. Though Mariota and the Falcons managed an OT victory, the Panthers looked great with Foreman toting the rock in the absence of Chuba Hubbard. His 3 TDs also helped elevate his performance to elite status. Foreman finished as the PPR RB5 in fantasy football, behind four other backs who also managed 3 TDs. What a week for RBs. Foreman will be a reliable flex option if and when Hubbard returns, and should hold elite value if he misses more action. Either way, he’s proven he should be in your lineup each week. Massive W for this sleeper call.
- projected: 15/60/1 rushing; 2/20/0 receiving
- actual: 26/118/3 rushing; 1/3/0 receiving
Tre’Quan Smith, WR – With no Michael Thomas or Jarvis Landry again in Week 8, Smith was inexplicably blanked by the Raiders. But that’s because Alvin Kamara went off while the Raiders were inexplicably blanked by the Saints. Smith wasn’t needed as a result, and only garnered 1 target in the game. Kamara instead dominated looks, earning 28 total opportunities. Chris Olave, and even Rashid Shaheed got more looks than the veteran wideout. Coming off back-to-back productive fantasy weeks, Tre’Quan’s donut hurt bad; given the porous Vegas secondary was just as bad as usual but also game-scripted out of being worse than usual. This was a swing and a big miss. L again.
- projected: 5/70/1
- actual: 0/0/0
Irv Smith Jr, TE – We’re running a solid streak of choosing sleeper TEs that get injured in-game. Though Smith only played slightly fewer snaps than normal, he was promptly put on IR and ruled out for the rest of the fantasy football season just days after the game. Irv’s ankle surgery will cost him 8-10 weeks. While his injury likely cost him valuable looks in the passing game against putrid Cardinals defense. Instead, it was Johnny Mundt who caught the TD while KJ Osborn earned a couple of looks. Now that the Vikings have acquired former-Lions starting TE TJ Hockenson, Irv may, sadly, never again be viable in fantasy football – even as a deep sleeper. Another L on a TE lost to injury. Here’s hoping I’m not a jinx.
- projected: 5/55/1
- actual: 4/28/0
So, big hit on Foreman but an underwhelming week otherwise. Time to get better and help punch some tickets to the playoffs.
But before that, here’s this.
Here’s a look at how I define fantasy football sleepers and my wins and losses in their selection:
- Players ranked outside of the QB12, RB30, WR40 and TE12 for a given week based on the weekly PPR Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) on Fantasy Pros are eligible to be chosen. That’s roughly guys at or beyond the consensus top-100.
- For a player to ‘hit’, I’m requiring a finish just about within the top-60 overall players. That means he was a serviceable starting piece that contributed meaningfully to your lineup; and he also exceeded expectations in a significant way. Historically, he put up at least 15 PPR points.
- For QBs and TEs, I’ll require a top-8 finish, though very close calls will be explored further to see if they helped you win your week.
So, now that that’s out of the way, it’s time to hold up my end of the bargain.
Shulman’s Sleepers: Week 9
QB: Taylor Heinicke, Washington Commanders
Fantasy Pros ECR: QB19
While Trevor Lawrence and Marcus Mariota both have decent matchups, I’m rolling with Heinicke this week given his uncanny ability to find a way to win. Believe it or not, the Commanders boast a 3-game winning streak; the last two of which Heinicke can claim as wins. Washington hasn’t exactly been hiding him behind the rushing game, either. Heinicke’s averaged 32 pass attempts in his starts this season.
This week, Heinicke and the Commanders will host a Vikings squad with a dynamic offense who should put up some points. In turn, that should force Washington into a passing script more favorable to Heinicke’s fantasy football production. Plus, in addition to his 279 yards through the air last week, he also ran the ball 6 times for 29 yards and a TD. Heinicke has decent speed and will need it to avoid Za’Darius Smith and his league-leading 8.5 sacks – along with the rest of Minnesota’s pass rush. Should he manage to do so, the Vikings have been giving it up to passing games all season while remaining stout against the rush.
Heinicke is set up for a big day; provided he can continue to play well and take advantage of his weapons and a weak opponent. It will be hard for the Commanders to make it four in a row, but they should still provide welcome fantasy production with six teams on bye this week.
Prediction: 270 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT; 5 rushes, 30 yards = 19.8 points
RB: Dontrell Hilliard, Tennessee Titans
Fantasy Pros ECR: RB38
Hilliard doesn’t have the role fantasy football managers covet with Derrick Henry going nuclear more often than not. This year’s PPR RB5 has been excellent over his last six games; even getting involved in the passing game to the chagrin of Hilliard managers. However, this week is different. Kansas City and their high-flying offense are coming to town.
The last time the 5-2 Titans faced a formidable offense, it was back in Week 2. That led to a 41-7 loss at the hands of the Buffalo Bills. Since then, they’ve rattled off five straight wins; literally on the back and legs and arms of Derrick Henry. It’s hard to believe that they’ll be able to keep pace with the Chiefs in this one. The potential negative script should somewhat neutralize Henry. That should allow more opportunities for Hilliard this week; who has been incredibly efficient in his own right.
Last week, despite controlling the Texans for the entire game, Hilliard still managed to rattle off 83 yards on 8 carries and catch a pass for 12 yards. What’s also notable is that no other Titan skill-position player has logged a carry over the last three weeks. That leaves Hilliard as Henry’s direct back up and spell option; while also handling the bulk of pure passing situations.
It’s pretty clear that Tennessee will need to score this week; while the Chiefs would be foolish not to load the box in an effort to stop Henry. Regardless of whether or not it’s Tannehill or Willis under center, Hilliard will need to have a good game for the Titans to stand a chance. Head Coach Mike Vrabel is smart enough to know this, too.
Prediction: 5 carries, 30 yards; 5 receptions, 30 yards; 1 TD = 17.0 points
WR: DeAndre Carter, Los Angeles Chargers
Fantasy Pros ECR: WR50
No matter your thoughts about Carter’s talent, the fact remains that the opportunity should be there for him this week with all of the injuries the Chargers are experiencing at the moment. In addition to Keenan Allen and Mike Williams set to miss this one, star RB Austin Ekeler popped up on the injury report with an abdomen issue on Thursday; while 3rd string receiver Joshua Palmer is also battling through concussion protocol. Though some of these guys may suit up, it looks like Sony Michel, Gerald Everett and Carter could be the top options at their respective positions this week. All of this bodes extremely well for Carter.
The 29-year-old, journeyman wide receiver has been a factor in the Los Angeles passing game all season; earning 28 targets, converting 19 for 229 yards and a touchdown this year. However, he’s really come on with Mike Williams out in recent weeks; earning 6 targets per game over the last two weeks. Now, after the bye week, LA sees the same Falcons D that just allowed the Panthers to do whatever they wanted on the field.
DJ Moore and Terrace Marshall went wild, combining for 10 catches for 239 yards while Carolina posted 34 points. LA is a better offense with a better scheme that should be able to produce, even down many of its top weapons.
While Carter is a deep dart, he should come through in the absence of everyone else on this offense. He’s all but guaranteed to rack up the receptions. He should find the end zone against a D that has given up the second-most fantasy points to WRs to date.
Prediction: 5 receptions, 55 yards, 1 TD = 16.5 points
TE: Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears
Fantasy Pros ECR: TE21
Justin Fields has been balling out lately; working hard to keep the Bears in games and looking pretty solid for a second-year signal caller in the process. Now that Chase Claypool is in town, it should only get better for this no-longer-bottom-of-the-barrel NFL offense. That’s not exactly high praise – and Claypool may not even suit up this weekend – but what has been comforting to see is how the pass catchers have been seeing more work in recent weeks.
Kmet is, of course, one of those pass catchers; and one who could and should be a top option for Fields week in and week out. The targets haven’t quite been there this season, but he did manage to find the end zone last week on limited looks. This week, the Bears host the Dolphins; a team that hasn’t quite put it together against any opponents on the defense side. They’re top-10 in terms of giving up fantasy points to QBs, WRs, and TEs, while 11th worst against RBs. The Bears, though not a stellar offense by any means, will have to keep up with one of the league’s best offenses likely going to town on their further depleted defense now that Roquan Smith is a Raven.
It’s Mooney, Kmet and not much else in the passing game. Expect more looks for the 3rd year TE than usual as Fields tries his mightiest to make a game of this one. With 6 teams on bye, you could do a lot worse this week.
Prediction: 4 receptions, 45 yards, 1 TD = 14.5 points
Well that’s all he wrote for Week 9. Good luck in your fantasy football matchups and, hopefully, on your way to the playoffs. Given all we’ve lost this week, these deep sleepers should at least provide you some comfort and even break you out of a slump, if need be.
Jeremy Shulman
Jeremy is an avid football fan from New York who lives in Amsterdam and roots for the Patriots. This walking contradiction has played fantasy football for over than 20 years. He is now a Senior Dynasty Writer at The League Winners. In his spare time, he writes and edits professionally.