Fantasy Football 2022: Shulman’s Sleepers – Week 4

Look, it’s been a trainwreck to start the season for some fantasy football players. CMC, JT and Ekeler have all woefully underperformed due to expectation; while James Robinson, Cordarrelle Patterson and Jamaal Williams may turn out to be league winners. And that’s just at the RB position.

We’re little more than 17% of the way through this season of imaginary football, so there will be stops along the way where you’re feeling good; and others where it’s downright miserable.

The goal of this article is to help you find deep sleeper plays; those that can chug into the end zone and help to earn you a W in your flex, or as a spot starter given injury or ineffective play from some of your top guys. So far, I’ve failed in this regard. My standards are high to consider my plays a W but, if you don’t have high standards, what are we doing here, really?

So, here’s to hoping Week 4 sees better results than any of the previous weeks. I’ll keep chugging along regardless, so come along with me for the ride. I think I can, I think I can. I think I can pick some winners this week.

But before we do that, it’s time to discuss how bad last week’s picks were.

Week 3 Review

Jared Goff, QB – Goff finished as the fantasy football QB18 in Week 3 in what I pegged as a potential shootout in Minneapolis. Instead, a promising first half for Goff turned into a ground and pound effort in the second. Swift and St. Brown left the games for spurts and Jamaal Williams took over. The yardage, to be sure, was there for Goff. But Williams’s 2 TD effort was as unforeseen as the Vikings comeback win in the absence of Justin Jefferson doing anything of note. Goff was a big miss this week, even in a game that – despite (barely) eclipsing the 51.5 over/under betting line – was less explosive than imagined. L.

• projected: 280/3/1 passing; 8 yards rushing
• actual: 277/1/1 passing; 8 yards rushing

Rashaad Penny, RB – This one hurts, because after two weeks of missing on Melvin Gordon, he punched it into the end zone in Week 3. Also, Penny was once again back on the usage map, with an objectively good effort against a decent Atlanta run D. But, with Geno’s two passing TDs and Penny left out of the passing attack (as expected), the TD we needed never came. Instead, it was an RB37 finish for Penny even as his snap share boost back up to 66% last week. El numero dos.

• projected: 12/55/1 rushing; 2/15 receiving
• actual: 14/66/0 rushing; 1/3 receiving

Treylon Burks, WR – Burks had all the makings of a smash play last week; though I originally wrote up DeVonta Smith for this spot last week, who was a smash play. Unfortunately, Smith vaulted up ECR later in the week and became ineligible for my selection by just 3 spots. Instead, I was left with Burks, who saw just two targets against a beatable secondary; despite seeing his snap share ascend to nearly 70% in Week 3. All things considered, this was an encouraging game from the rookie, even if the production didn’t come. All things considered, it’s another loss for me and my early season takes. Yikes.

• projected:  5/65/1
• actual: 1/13 receiving; 8 yards rushing

Irv Smith, TE – From the game I expected to be a barn-burner, the Vikings didn’t do much until late in their comeback win over the Lions last week. Yet, with another healthy dose of targets, Smith just couldn’t convert much, finishing the week as the TE29 in fantasy football. With Justin Jefferson doing next to nothing, this should’ve been a smash spot for Irv. However, Adam Thielen and KJ Osborn both got into the act, with Cook and Mattison finding the end zone. I continue to like Irv’s usage going forward, now likely fully healed up from his thumb injury. But he’s unfortunately more boom/bust than I would like in an offense with a lot of good weapons.

• projected:  5/50/1
• actual: 2/32/0

I again whiffed on WR while the usage has otherwise been pretty close to actual production. Still, that’s just 1 for 12 over the course of the early season. Let’s keep working to see if we can find more diamonds in the rough and regress to the mean of these predictions – whatever that mean may be.

Before I schedule my Week 3 deep plays, here’s a reminder of how I’m defining fantasy football sleepers and my wins and losses in their selection:

1. Players ranked outside of the QB12, RB30, WR40 and TE12 for a given week based on the weekly PPR Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) on Fantasy Pros are eligible to be chosen. That’s roughly guys at or beyond the consensus top-100.
2. For a player to ‘hit’, I’m requiring a finish just about within the top-60 overall players. That means he was a serviceable starting piece that contributed meaningfully to your lineup; and he also exceeded expectations in a significant way. Historically, he put up at least 15 PPR points.
   1. For QBs and TEs, I’ll require a top-8 finish, though very close calls will be explored further to see if they helped you win your week.

So, without much fanfare, let’s get to it. Okay, I lied. Commence fanfare.

All aboard; next stop: Week 4.

Shulman’s Sleepers: Week 4

QB: Jacoby Brissett, Cleveland Browns

Fantasy Pros ECR: QB23

There are a ton of tough QB2 matchups this week. The player I’m looking at with the best chance to vastly outperform his fantasy football ECR is Jacoby Brissett. Through three weeks, Brissett is just the QB17, but he’s played fairly well after a poor Week 1 showing in Carolina. After throwing 2 TDs last week against a decent Pittsburgh D, an Atlanta unit that gives it up to WRs and TEs should help Jacoby leap into the QB1 fray this week.

The Falcons have been stingy against the run this season. In part, it’s because the offense has put up at least 26 points in each week thus far. But it’s also due to the fact that the Falcons are solid up front. Grady Jarrett and company have held the New Orleans, Rams and Seahawks backfields to subpar days, but that unit has also been poor at rushing the passer. Last week, Geno Smith threw it 14 more times than he had all season, only being pressured on 13% of his dropbacks per Pro Football Reference. In Week 2, Stafford threw 3 TDs while only pressured on 2.7% of his dropbacks. As a result, Atlanta has given up 27, 31 and 23 points through three weeks. The points should come again in this one.

Despite Cleveland’s run-first nature, there’s a good chance the efficient Brissett sees even more action than usual this week. And, his ability to run, while perhaps not necessary, could be a boon to his value should he rack up the yards on the ground.

Prediction: 220 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT; 4 rushes, 18 yards; 1 TD = 24.6 points

RB: Rashaad Penny, Seattle Seahawks

Fantasy Pros ECR: RB32

I was right last week to think that Kenneth Walker wouldn’t hurt Rashaad Penny’s fantasy football value that much. However, I did not consider Geno Smith’s 44 pass attempts as anything that could enter the realm of possible outcomes in Week 3. Still, Penny looked like the lead back, and like a good lead back, so I’m back to the well with him in Week 4.

Walker saw just 13% of the snaps last week, which is a good sign. Penny though, as mentioned above, continues to be a non-factor in the passing game. Both Walker, Homer and Dallas got looks there, so we’ll need a TD for Penny to hit. Luckily the Detroit Lions, Seattle’s opponent this week, are the best matchup for RBs through three  weeks. They are giving up 27.5 Half PPR points per game to the position. That should make Penny a smash play this week. Other than a stifling 49ers unit that held Penny in check in Week 2, he’s been his normal 5 yards per carry self.

Against a defensive squad in the Lions that have surrendered the 4^th most offensive plays and 6^th most rushing yards to opponents on the young season, give me Penny – with hopefully more opportunity than he’s seen all season – in this one.

Prediction: 16 carries, 85 yards; 2 receptions, 10 yards; 1 TD = 17.5 points 

WR: Richie James, New York Giants

Fantasy Pros ECR: WR64 

James is quite the deep cut this week, but it’s because there is literally no one else running routes out there for the Giants at his level. That’s a concern for the offense as a whole. But James has been a pleasant surprise through three weeks, averaging 6 targets and 5 receptions for 48.6 yards weekly.

Now it’s all about context for James as Sterling Shepard and his 20 targets over the past two games are done for the year. Kadarius Toney and Wan’Dale Robinson are still not practicing. And, the only warm bodies left on the roster are David Sills, Darius Slayton and the ghost of Kenny Golladay. James should continue to occupy the slot and see a nice dose of targets in this one, especially against the Bears secondary.

The Bears haven’t given up a ton of points to WRs thus far this season. They have faced the 2^nd fewest passes and 3^rd most rush attempts through three weeks of play. Just like last year, this D continues to be one of the most run funnel-iest units in the NFL; falling in line with last year’s numbers where they saw the fewest pass attempts. This was due in large part to their inability to grab the lead in games.

With the Giants expected to get out to an early lead, Saquon Barkley should eat in all facets in this one. However, someone else will need to be on the receiving end of Daniel Jones’s 20 or so completions in this one. That someone? Richie James. He’s a nice flex option this week as the only game in town.

Prediction: 6 receptions, 50 yards, 1 TD = 17 points

TE: Robert Tonyan, Green Bay Packers

Fantasy Pros ECR: TE18

Big Bob Tonyan went down last October with a torn ACL. But before the incident, he had been one of Aaron Rodgers most reliable targets outside of supreme hog Davante Adams. Now that Adams is gone, Rodgers is still looking for a #1 pass catcher. And with a different target leader in each game this season, it’s clear he hasn’t yet found that replacement.

In addition to this potential opportunity, Tonyan has seen his participation rise significantly in each game this season. Returning from surgery, he’s quickly become the 2^nd-most targeted player through three weeks. And, though many are quick to talk up Allen Lazard or rookie and current target leader Romeo Doubs as the clear cut #1 option, Tonyan could easily take that role; especially this week against a Patriots team that gave up an 8/89/2 line to Mark Andrews in Week 3. Tonyan isn’t the best TE in fantasy football to be sure; though he should be feature against a Pats LB unit that is it’s clear liability on the defensive side of the ball.

With defensive attention likely to flow to the running backs on run and pass plays, look for Tonyan to find some space and get plenty of looks from Rodgers on Sunday. I expect a nice day and one Lambeau Leap for the reliable TE.

Prediction: 5 receptions, 55 yards, 1 TD = 16.5 points

Here’s to staying on track with your fantasy football lineups this week. And, if you need a big game out of the flex spot, don’t be afraid to plug these deeper plays in as they look to railroad the competition in Week 4.