Fantasy Football 2023: Rookies to Target and Avoid

The 2023 Redraft season is in full swing. The hardest part about every Redraft league is not overvaluing the rookies that we have grown fond of in our dynasty leagues. Just because we loved a rookie in dynasty doesn’t guarantee they will be fantasy-relevant for redraft this season. Oftentimes, those who are fantasy-relevant are significantly overpriced. I want to take a look a them all. This will help to indicate which ones I will be targeting or avoiding this year. So let’s go round by round through the 2023 NFL Draft to see who to pass or play. Welcome to Rookies to Target and Avoid.

*These options will all be a reflection of 1QB leagues. In a Superflex league, just about every quarterback is in play. I will also only be discussing Day One and Two picks with the exception of a select few players. Most Day Three players are a long shot in dynasty. So, to rely on them at all in redraft is foolish. I will be using Full PPR ADP according to Fantasy Pros 1QB ADP.

Rookies to Target and Avoid – Round 1

Target

Anthony Richardson, QB (IND): is a huge risk. I would not recommend drafting him as your starting QB in 1QB leagues. If you didn’t get a high-end QB, he could be a solid bench stash to see if he takes off.

Bijan Robinson, RB (ATL): is the easiest player on the board. A top-ten pick who should be one of the best rookies in recent memory. The only thing that scares me with regard to Bijan Robinson is how high he is going in ADP. Currently at RB3.

Jahmyr Gibbs, RB (DET): is yet another high draft pick at running back. He should be more than relevant in 2023. Again, the concern here is not his talent but the fact that he is being drafted at a steep cost. When you factor in his potential committee situation with David Montgomery it’s concerning.

Zay Flowers, WR (BAL): is my favorite rookie sleeper of 2023. He is going in a grouping around pick 100. He’s being drafted with the other first-round receivers, but he is by far the most likely to hit, in my opinion. He has the easiest pathway to stardom of any of the first-round receivers. Zay Flowers can be a League Winner.

Jordan Addison, WR (MIN): is another highly talented receiver. Unfortunately with Justin Jefferson on his team, his ceiling is a bit more capped. Could the Vikings be the newest team to sport a deadly 1-2 receiver punch like the Eagles and Bengals? It’s possible, but only time will tell.

Avoid

Bryce Young, QB (CAR): is a smart and talented number-one pick. Unfortunately, he lands on a young, poor offence devoid of any high-end talent.

CJ Stroud, QB (HOU): is perhaps the most accurate quarterback in recent memory. Once again, a poor offence with a serious lack of offensive weapons.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR (SEA): is easily the most talented receiver in this class. He is behind two superstars on the depth chart and looks to be starting the season on the PUP list. This makes him an avoid for this season.

Quentin Johnston, WR (LAC): is a potential big play, alpha WR. This archetype of receiver often requires multiple years to develop. Add in Keenan Allen and Mike Williams above him on the depth chart and he is unlikely to be a factor in 2023.

Dalton Kincaid, TE (BUF): is a tight end. Drafting a rookie tight end in redraft is never a great bet. Even when they hit big, they are still only a mid-range TE1. Factor in his current draft cost, and you are investing enough capital to where you can’t afford for him to miss or get off to a slow start.

Rookies to Target and Avoid – Round Two

Target

Jonathan Mingo, WR (CAR): is one of four round-two receivers I am fond of as late-round sleepers this year. Jonathan Mingo was a relative unknown not too long ago. Draft capital and a total lack of target competition give him a solid chance to be the WR1 in Carolina.

Jayden Reed, WR (GB): is very similar to Mingo. Much like Mingo, Jayden Reed also has the advantage of a pathway to being the WR1 on his team and has the draft capital to see opportunity.

Rashee Rice, WR (KC): is on the target list for the same reason as the above two receivers. Good draft capital and the potential to be the WR1 on his team. Rashee Rice has an even higher upside as he is the only one of my four options attached to Patrick Mahomes. Rice may miss and be a depth option, but if he finds a way to be Mahomes’ go-to guy, he could be a massive steal.

Marvin Mims, WR (DEN): is my final target amongst the second-round picks. Marvin Mims is an interesting option. At one point he seemed to be buried on this depth chart, but with Tim Patrick and Jerry Jeudy both going down to injuries, Mims could easily see himself with a significant role to start his career.

Avoid

Will Levis, QB (TEN): is another rookie that I don’t want to trust for this season. He is likely to spend a significant portion of his rookie season as Ryan Tannehill’s backup. Nothing to see here.

Sam LaPorta, TE (DET): is yet another example of how talent isn’t necessarily the only thing to consider for redraft. He’s a rookie tight end; and while the Lion’s offense looks to be impressive, he is still starting to rise to a cost point that is untenable for a rookie tight end in Redraft. He is simply a negative risk vs. reward wager.

Michael Mayer, TE (LV): is much cheaper than the first two rookie tight ends I’m passing on, but I’m still passing. The issue for Michael Mayer isn’t his cost, it’s his offense. Jimmy Garoppolo takes over as the Raiders quarterback and this team figures to be a total mess. I like his talent, but the situation is far less than ideal.

Luke Musgrave, TE (GB): is the third tight end taken in the second round, and much like Mayer, he is on an offense that could potentially be a disaster in 2023. Luke Musgrave is a solid stash for dynasty leagues but isn’t viable for 2023.

Zach Charbonnet, RB (SEA): is now a Seattle Seahawk, after they shockingly drafted him in the second round. Zach Charbonnet has the size and talent to be useful for fantasy but for a rookie running back in a timeshare, he is being drafted entirely too high. He is being drafted as a top-100 pick and is a terrible value at that cost.

Luke Schoonmaker, TE (DAL): is the first of two massively overdrafted tight ends. He joins a Cowboys’ tight end room that already has youngsters Jake Ferguson and Peyton Hendershot. While he is basically free in Redraft leagues, he is nothing more than a late-round dart throw.

Brenton Strange, TE (JAC): is a potential long-term option for Jacksonville after they move on from Evan Engram. Unfortunately, he has little value this season. Leave him off your draft board.

Rookies to Target and Avoid – Round Three

Target

Tank Dell, WR (HOU): is perhaps the smallest receiver in the league, and that’s normally a no-go for me. The reason Tank Dell is a target is that he is going outside of the top 200 picks and has no solidified receiver talent in front of him in Houston. Add in CJ Stroud requesting he be drafted and he is my pick to be the Texans’ WR1.

Tank Bigsby, RB (JAC): is capable of doing all the things that Travis Etienne struggles with. He won’t be a three-down back but what he could be is the goal line back for the Jaguars and that could be worth his current ADP of 129.

Cedric Tillman, WR (CLE): is on a Browns team that has indicated they intend to throw more than in past years and Cedric Tillman could find himself as a useful player for fantasy. He will be behind Amari Cooper at best, and potentially behind Elijah Moore but could easily carve out a solid role as a flew receiver.

Josh Downs, WR (IND): is the prototypical slot receiver that the Colts lack. Michael Pittman is the WR1 in this offense, but a short area check-down target could see heavy volume with rookie Anthony Richardson at quarterback.

Avoid

Hendon Hooker, QB (DET): is a great talent and should have a bright future in the NFL. Unfortunately for this season, he will likely be redshirted and is unlikely to see the field.

Kendre Miller, RB (NO): is a hot commodity that has fallen down my draft board a bit recently. Alvin Kamara was expected to see a lengthy suspension, opening up a huge opportunity for Kendre Miller. Kamara’s suspension turned out to be only three games and this likely makes Miller a bad target at his currently elevated ADP.

Jalin Hyatt, WR (NYG): is another longshot receiver, but he is a speedster who has typically been a one-trick pony and he finds himself in a crowded Giants receiver room where he could be the WR1 or WR8. There are far better options than Jalin Hyatt.

Tyjae Spears, RB (TEN): is a trendy name as he has electrified in the preseason. Realistically, he is a glorified handcuff. His cost isn’t insane, but with Derrick Henry in front of him, he is unlikely to be fantasy-relevant barring a catastrophic Henry injury.

De’Von Achane, RB (MIA): is going way too high in redraft leagues. He is on the edge of the top 100. This is troubling considering he is currently battling through an injury and figures to be in a three-way time share in Miami. Avoid De’Von Achane, instead draft Raheem Mostert or Jeff Wilson five rounds later.

Tucker Kraft, TE (GB): is a third-round tight end on a bad offence that just drafted a second-round tight end. Stranger things have happened, but Tucker Kraft doesn’t figure to be fantasy-relevant.

Darnell Washington, TE (PIT): was a highly touted prospect after the NFL combine. Sadly, it appears the Steelers intend to use him as an extra offensive lineman, which won’t help him for fantasy.

Cameron Latu, TE (SF): is behind George Kittle in an already crowded offense. He lacks the profile to hit big and is unlikely to see any real volume.

Rookies to Target and Avoid – Notable Day Three Targets

Rochson Johnson, RB (CHI): is my favorite Day 3 pick. He is the only one I expect to have standalone value. Roschon Johnson could be the Bears RB1 within a few weeks, but don’t overdraft him in case it takes him some time.

Chase Brown, RB (CIN): is the first of four consecutive day three players that should be on your radar as potential handcuffs. Chase Brown is behind Joe Mixon in the Bengals backfield and with the uncertainty surrounding Mixon, could easily see opportunity.

Eric Gray, RB (NYG): is the direct backup to Saquon Barkley, should Barkley go down to injury, Eric Gray could be a League Winner.

Evan Hull, RB (IND): is likely the backup to Jonathan Taylor, and given his current uncertainty could be a huge steal. Taylor has requested a trade; don’t leave your draft without taking Evan Hull in the final round.

Zach Evans, RB (LAR): is the least preferable of the four handcuffs as the Rams offense figures to be bad. But with the tumultuous relationship between Cam Akers and the Rams, Evans could see action at some point even without an injury.

Kayshon Boutte, WR (NE): is the definition of a dart throw. There have been conflicting reports out of Patriots camp saying he has been either great or terrible. If he enters week one as a starter he could be a steal, or he could be cut and will be your first drop of the season.

Trey Palmer, WR (TB): is a confusing case because he is ultra-talented but the Buccaneers offense looks to be bad with Baker Mayfield at quarterback. He is currently the WR3 behind Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, but if something changes he has the talent to be a great receiver.

Rookies to Target and Avoid Recap

In the end, there is a recurring theme in this article. That theme is very indicative of my overall approach to rookies in Redraft. I typically avoid quarterbacks and tight ends as rookies. Running backs fall into three categories for me: high-end talent that will produce instantly, mid-range talent to avoid being drafted too high and handcuffs to take in the late rounds. The best bet with rookies is wide receivers. This wasn’t always the case, but in recent memory, receivers have produced early and often and can be league winners if you draft the correct ones.

For a complete breakdown of the entire 2023 draft class, check out our 2023 Rookie Profiles. Available at theleaguewinners.com.