With the first 11 weeks of the 2023 NFL Season now in the books (except for Monday Night Football), I thought now would be a great chance for some self-reflection. I have gathered a handful of The League Winner’s best to look back at their preseason rankings and projections. Now it’s time to see what we got wrong and what he got right. Welcome to Victory Laps & Receipts.
Victory Laps & Receipts
Pru Patel
Victory Lap: Breece Hall, RB (New York Jets)
Breece Hall is an elite talent coming back from an ACL injury. Hall was being drafted in the third round-fourth round of drafts. An injury to QB Aaron Rodgers made it seem he was going to be elite again in Week 1. However, a bad offence and still recovering from injury is too much for Hall to produce as he did in 2022.
Receipt: Brian Robinson, RB (Washington Commanders)
Brian Robinson had a Cinderella story-type rookie season after recovering from being shot in an attempted robbery. With a new OC and lots of uncertainty in QB Sam Howell, Robinson fell in fantasy football drafts. With the entire Commanders offence being a candidate for positive TD regression, Robinson had immediate RB2 value while being drafted as low RB2/RB3.
Tim Riley
Victory Lap: Elijah Moore, WR (Cleveland Browns)
This off-season, I labelled Elijah Moore “Just Another Guy” (JAG). It feels a little early to start victory lapping, but through four games, he’s been rather unimpressive. His rookie year production was likely the product of being the primary option in a less-than-impressive 2021 New York Jets offence. This year, he had a full off-season to acclimate to the Cleveland Browns system. He’s seen 29 targets, which is a solid number. He currently ranks 23rd in targets per game, and with that, he sits at WR58 in fantasy PPG. Volume isn’t the issue. He’s just not as talented as people once believed him to be.
Receipt: Sean Tucker, RB (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
I was very much in on Sean Tucker this off-season. I want to apologize for that. Tucker was my RB3 in the 2023 class pre-draft, and it’s a flat-out miss for me. Tucker sits in a weird timeshare for RB2/3 in Tampa Bay, along with Ke’Shawn Vaughn. He was only a late-round flier, but a miss is a miss. He’s practically droppable at this point. If Starter Rachaad White were to miss time, it’d be interesting to see how the backfield shapes out, but Tucker has been unable to steal meaningful snaps thus far. From what I can see, his absolute fantasy ceiling is in the range of AJ Dillon, A clear RB2 in a timeshare. His floor is him out of the league at the end of the year. He’s likely a JAG, and I accept that.
Jesse Moeller
Victory Lap: James Cook, RB (Buffalo Bills)
Receipt: DeAndre Hopkins, WR (Tennessee Titans)
Jeremy Shulman
Victory Lap: David Montgomery, RB (Detroit Lions)
I said before the offseason that David Montgomery had the clearest path to 10 TDs of any RB in the league. For that reason, I had him as a mid-range RB2 with a low-end RB1 upside. In only three games, he’s the PPR RB9 before Monday night. With five TDs on the season and at least one in every game, Monty is a must-start going forward on a high-scoring offence. Continue to ride him.
Receipt: Michael Pittman, WR (Indianapolis Colts)
Michael Pittman is, by all accounts, quarterback-proof. Though he had a down in Week 4, he’s still the PPR WR19 with only one touchdown on the year. Anthony Richardson is sure to get back to hyper-targeting his number-one option in the Colts passing game next week. Despite the rookie QB, first-year head coach and scheme change concerns, Pittman is not a bust. It turns out, he’s a borderline WR1 every week. I was dead wrong on him.
Brandon Haye
Victory Lap: Sam LaPorta, TE (Detroit Lions)
Sam Laporta is from the tight-end factory in Iowa. He also landed in a perfect situation. Before the season I thought he would be the best rookie tight end and early signs he will by a large margin. If he continues to produce in Detroit, he could become the Dynasty TE1.
Receipt: Derek Carr, QB (New Orleans Saints)
I always thought Derek Carr was underrated, and thought he would be a great fit with the New Orleans Saints. He has been disappointed with those weapons and now has an AC joint injury that could cause issues going forward. Carr may not even finish as a top-16 QB for the year.
Thomas Christopher
Victory Lap: Christian Kirk, WR (Jacksonville Jaguars)
While others were buying Calvin Ridley, I was picking up Christian Kirk. I mentioned him as a potential game-changer for this season, and the 26-year-old continues to impress as Trevor Lawrence‘s favourite target. At the moment, he is the WR24 in the PPR leagues, and I expect him to stay as a top-24 wide receiver throughout the season.
Receipt: Alexander Mattison, RB (Minnesota Vikings)
As far as victory laps and receipts go, I couldn’t have been more wrong with Alexander Mattison. With Dalvin Cook in New York, I expected Mattison to be a minimum, an RB2 for fantasy football. It turns out that not only is the Minnesota Vikings’ offensive line horrible, but Mattison may not have the juice to produce a fantasy asset. He played better in Week 4, but signs are pointing to him being a huge bust in 2023.
Aaron St. Denis
Victory Lap: Ken Walker, RB (Seattle Seahawks)
From the minute Zach Charbonnet was drafted, analysts everywhere assumed it was going to be a timeshare destined to doom both him and Ken Walker. I said all along that Walker was the better back and the dominant alpha in the backfield. Through Week 4 that has proven to be exactly the case. Walker has been dominant and a top-10 running back and Charbonnet has been a backup. The only way Walker is losing his hold on this job is with an injury.
Receipt: Anthony Richardson, RB (Indianapolis Colts)
I got this one wrong. My feeling all offseason was that Richardson was not as inaccurate as everyone made him out to be. Despite this, I still said he wouldn’t be relevant as a rookie. This wasn’t a case of me having an issue with him or his talent, more so, it was me refusing to bet against the odds and place my faith in a rookie quarterback on a bad offence. Even with Jonathan Taylor out of the lineup, Richardson and the Colts have proven to be better than I expected to this point. Richardson is going to be a star.
Randy Vuxta
Victory Lap: D’Andre Swift, RB (Philadelphia Eagles)
My victory lap player right now is D’Andre Swift. Whether it was a trade or a late-round grab, I would find a way to get Swift on my fantasy football team. A change of scenery behind the best run-blocking offensive line in football was enough for me to make a move.
Receipt: Javonte Williams, RB (Denver Broncos)
The player I got wrong was Javonte Williams. I thought Sean Payton would use him like he used Alvin Kamara in New Orleans. In reality, Payton has only brought headaches for the team in Colorado.
Ryan Prosick
Victory Lap: Jakobi Meyers, WR (Las Vegas Raiders)
We all thought Meyers would get a big contract in free agency after we saw Christian Kirk get one in the previous offseason. He was the best receiver in the class but did not cash in as much as everyone thought. Meyers got a modest three-year, $33 million contract from the Las Vegas Raiders. They brought him in to use him, and they have been with 22 targets in two games with Jimmy Garoppolo. The offence did not succeed with Aidan O’Connell in Week 4, but he gets a pass here (especially after that incredible catch on a supposed offensive pass interference). Meyers carries high-end flex value for the rest of the season, with the potential for routine WR2 weeks.
Receipt: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB (Detroit Lions)
Listen, everything was there, and I’m still convinced it still is. However, the usage over the first four games is not promising. Seeing David Montgomery get 34 touches in Week 4 was disheartening, but we must keep the faith. We have seen him on the field and be quite explosive. It’s not him; it’s his usage. And we have seen this staff do this before with D’Andre Swift, who is having a heck of a year in Philadelphia. I will take the loss on this one for now, but it’s very early in his career, and I think RB1’s potential is still there.
If you enjoyed our Victory Laps & Receipts article, check out our original 2023 Draft Rankings on our Rankings Page. You can expect more Victory Laps & Receipts soon.
*All player images are from www.statmuse.com*
