The NFL Season is here and it is time to set your fantasy football lineups for the first week of the season. Anyone can go look at rankings, but what if you like risks and want to swing for the fences? That is where this article will come in for you. As the season goes on this will be the spot for you to find who to start. Even moreso when byes and injuries start to pile up. Each week I will be picking one fantasy football sleeper at each position. This player is set to outperform their ranking and help you win your week on the way to becoming a League Winner! Welcome to Fantasy Football 2023: Week 1 Sleepers.
Now let’s look at what we are picking from:
- I’m defining a sleeper as someone ranked outside of the top 30 for WRs and RBs who will finish in the top 20 at the position. That would be around 14 fantasy points based on the average of last year.
- For QBs and TEs, I am defining them as outside the top 15 but will finish in the top 10. Last year using average points per game that would be 21 fantasy points for QB and 11 fantasy points for TE.
- PPR Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) on Fantasy Pros will be used. These players may not be on the waiver wire but could be big
- I will track the hit rate based on the above settings but also how far the picked sleepers outperform their initial rankings for the week.
So, now let’s take a look at some fantasy football sleepers for Week 1 of the NFL season.
QB: Sam Howell, Washington Commanders
Fantasy Pros ECR: QB19
I loved Sam Howell coming out of UNC and could not believe he fell so far in the draft. For some reason, Ron Rivera decided to only play him for one game last season. In the offseason Rivera admitted that playing him so little was a mistake.
Howell has looked impressive in preseason and did not throw a single interception. He showed his mobility and ability to deliver under pressure in the second preseason game where he threw for 188 yards and two touchdowns.
The Washington Commanders have plenty of weapons and a new offense under Eric Bienemy. They could not have gotten a better Week 1 opponent than the Arizona Cardinals. The Commanders should have their way with them; I could see Howell really putting up a huge performance, even if Terry McLaurin is limited because of his preseason injury. Last year the Cardinals were 24th in allowed passing yards and they have already traded away some of their defensive players. Howell will have the chance to make some big plays against a team that looks to be tanking as he headlines our Week 1 sleepers.
RB: Tank Bigsby, Jacksonville Jaguars
Fantasy Pros ECR: RB47
This one is just a gut call on how this Week 1 matchup could go. The Jacksonville Jaguars face the Indiapolis Colts without Jonathan Taylor and with an inexperienced rookie QB. Some analaysts very high on Anthony Richardson, but I think it will take time before he develops as a passer. I see the Jaguars scoring pretty easily and cruising to victory. Because of that, I think Tank Bigsby could get even more work in the second half. The team has used both Bigsby and Travis Etienne on drives during the preseason. So Bigsby will not just get mop-up duty – but be involved throughout the game.
The Jaguars struggled in short yardage last year. I think Bigsby will be heavily relied upon in the red zone and I think he will get a touchdown in this game. The Colts gave up the seventh-highest fantasy points per game to RBs last season – at over 23. The Colts defense could be on the field for much of the game; and later in the second half, I see Bigsby wearing them down and breaking off some big runs. I truly believe that this RB tandem is a thunder and lightning combo much like the New Orleans Saints had with Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram. The ECR of RB47 is just way too low and the matchup looks great for Bigsby to have a great debut. Count on him being one of your Week 1 sleepers.
WR: Elijah Moore, Cleveland Browns
Fantasy Pros ECR: WR41
Elijah Moore was an electric receiver coming out of college that I loved. He was one of my top five receivers in the class. In his rookie year, he put up some good numbers and had great expectations moving forward. He just never got used correctly or received enough targets on the New York Jets. Now he goes to the Cleveland Browns where I think he has something to prove. In training camp he has been showing the same explosiveness he showed in college.
#Browns QB Deshaun Watson and WR Elijah Moore back at practice today. pic.twitter.com/Ctt6QknSpq
— Camryn Justice (@camijustice) August 30, 2023
The Browns have said they plan to cater the offense around Deshaun Watson and throw the ball more. The first opponent is the Cincinnati Bengals, who were the eighth-best in fantasy points allowed to WRs last season. The Bengals lost some secondary help from a season ago and I think more focus will be put on Amari Cooper. Moore should be a PPR monster with the Browns as he does his best work in the open field. And with the Bengals’ offensive firepower, I think the Browns will need to score in the 30s to win this game.
TE: Luke Musgrave, Green Bay Packers
Fantasy Pros ECR: TE25
I am actually surprised that Luke Musgrave is ranked so low this week. Many might have the passing options for the Green Bay Packers ranked low because of the unknown with Jordan Love. Yet limited action last year and this preseason, he has looked more than competent. I don’t think the drop-off will be as drastic as people think.
Musgrave is the starter at TE and through the preseason he was heavily targeted by new QB Jordan Love. Often, young QBs look for TEs as their security blanket; and I think Musgrave could be in for a big season because of that. The Packers are deploying a lot of young receivers that may need time to get up to speed. In training camp, many have been talking about the speed and athleticism of Musgrave.
Green Bay Packers target distribution on 37 Jordan Love dropbacks:
– Whewwwie how about an 84% route involvement rate and 24% target share for Luke Musgrave? That'll work
– Romeo Doubs only played two games. He ran a route on all 19 of Love's dropbacks during the first two games pic.twitter.com/oiLOsEus1O— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) August 28, 2023
Good luck to everyone this week! Hopefully these Week 1 sleepers can take your fantasy football team over the top. Make sure to follow our content all year so we can help you to be a League Winner!
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Brandon Haye
Brandon grew up in Jacksonville, Florida and works as a health insurance data analyst. He has no children, but two fur babies - Squirt and Brownie. He and his wife, Katie, spend their time playing poker and enjoying time with their pups. Brandon is a huge Michigan Wolverine and Jacksonville Jaguars fan. He at one time was in 77 fantasy leagues and loves the game of football. Brandon started writing for The Leauge Winners in 2021.