Anyone can look at fantasy football rankings, but what if you like risks and want to swing for the fences? As the season goes on, this will be the spot for you to find the sleepers to start in your fantasy football league. Especially when byes and injuries start to pile up. Each week I will be picking one fantasy football sleeper at each position. These players are set to outperform their ranking and help win your week on the way to becoming a League Winner! Welcome to Fantasy Football 2023: Week 12 Sleepers.
Now let’s look at what we are picking from:
- I’m defining a sleeper as someone ranked outside of the top 30 for WRs and RBs who will finish in the top 20 at the position. That would be around 14 fantasy points based on the average of last year.
- For QBs and TEs, I am defining them as outside the top 12 but will finish in the top 10. Last year using average points per game that would be 21 fantasy points for QB and 11 fantasy points for TE.
- PPR Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) on Fantasy Pros will be used. These players may not be on the waiver wire but could be big
- I will track the hit rate based on the above settings but also how far the picked sleepers outperform their initial rankings for the week.
Week 9 Review
The site is back so we missed Weeks 10 and 11, but in Week 9 we had a big hit with Jahan Dotson and barely missed with Taylor Heinicke. The Donald Parham call didn’t work out because Gerald Everett played through his injury. I am 9/33 on sleeper hits and 17/31 on players finishing higher than they were initially ranked. We are not hitting sleepers at a high rate but when they hit the difference in initial to finishing ranking is huge!
So, now let’s take a look at some fantasy football sleepers for Week 12 of the NFL season.
QB: Gardner Minshew vs the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Fantasy Pros ECR: QB18
Gardner Minshew has had a mixed bag since becoming a starting quarterback. He has finished outside the top 20 in the last two games but has gone up against four straight defenses that are the top 14 in giving up fantasy points to quarterbacks. He gets a great matchup this week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who give up the fourth most fantasy points to quarterbacks.
RB: Alexander Mattison vs the Chicago Bears
Fantasy Pros ECR: RB32
Alexander Mattison had his best rushing game of the year in Week 11. He gets another great matchup with the Chicago Bears this week who give up the ninth-most in fantasy points to running backs. Mattison has received 16 or more carries in the last three games, so the opportunities are there. With Justin Jefferson still out, the Vikings will look to lean on the running game with Mattison and quarterback Josh Dobbs.
WR: Josh Downs vs the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Fantasy Pros ECR: WR37
Well, Minshew is a sleeper so he has to throw to someone. Why not make Josh Downs another sleeper? Downs was playing through an injury in Week 10 so the bye came at a good time. The Buccaneers give up the second most points to wide receivers and the most to slot receivers. Downs is third in the NFL in snaps from the slot. Before his injury, he had four straight games with six or more targets and was in double digits in fantasy points in each of those games.
TE: Pat Freiermuth vs the Cincinatti Bengals
Fantasy Pros ECR: TE18
The Pittsburgh Steelers finally let go of Matt Canada, so I am hopeful the offense will look better this week vs the Cincinnati Bengals. I am not sure what the offense will look like but I am hoping in his second week back, Pat Freiermuth will get more work than he got last week. The Bengals give up the fourth most fantasy points to tight ends and I think Freiermuth is due for a big game.
Good luck to everyone this week! Hopefully these Week 12 sleepers can take your fantasy football team over the top. Make sure to follow our content all year so we can help you to be a League Winner!
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Brandon Haye
Brandon grew up in Jacksonville, Florida and works as a health insurance data analyst. He has no children, but two fur babies - Squirt and Brownie. He and his wife, Katie, spend their time playing poker and enjoying time with their pups. Brandon is a huge Michigan Wolverine and Jacksonville Jaguars fan. He at one time was in 77 fantasy leagues and loves the game of football. Brandon started writing for The Leauge Winners in 2021.