Anyone can look at fantasy football rankings, but what if you like risks and want to swing for the fences? That is where this article will come in for you. As the season goes on, this will be the spot for you to find the sleepers to start in your fantasy football league. Even moreso when byes and injuries start to pile up. Each week I will be picking one fantasy football sleeper at each position. These players are set to outperform their ranking and help win your week on the way to becoming a League Winner! Welcome to Fantasy Football 2023: Week 2 Sleepers.
Now let’s look at what we are picking from:
- I’m defining a sleeper as someone ranked outside of the top 30 for WRs and RBs who will finish in the top 20 at the position. That would be around 14 fantasy points based on the average of last year.
- For QBs and TEs, I am defining them as outside the top 15 but will finish in the top 10. Last year using average points per game that would be 21 fantasy points for QB and 11 fantasy points for TE.
- PPR Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) on Fantasy Pros will be used. These players may not be on the waiver wire but could be big
- I will track the hit rate based on the above settings but also how far the picked sleepers outperform their initial rankings for the week.
Week 1 Review
Only one of the our four sleepers from last week ‘hit’ based on our Sleeper Criteria, but Sam Howell was just outside the top 10. All four sleepers finished higher than their rankings and three of the four finished at least eight spots higher. A good start but we can do better.
So, now let’s take a look at some fantasy football sleepers for Week 1 of the NFL season.
QB: Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints
Fantasy Pros ECR: QB20
Derek Carr and the New Orleans Saints did not put up many points against the Tennessee Titans last week, but he did finish with good numbers. He completed over 69% of his passes and threw for over 300 yards with one touchdown and one interception. The Titans finished last in the NFL in passing yards given up last year but they were top 12 in the NFL in scoring defense. So it should not have been a big surprise that Carr struggled a little in the touchdown department.
This week he gets a much easier matchup against the Carolina Panthers, who will still be without their star pass rusher Brian Burns. Do not let the stat line of just 91 passing yards by the Atlanta Falcons (Carolina’s opponent last week) fool you. That was more a function of an inexperienced QB and a team that wants to run the ball more. Without Alvin Kamara, I think the Saints will pass more and Carr has plenty of weapons with Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, Michael Thomas, and Juwan Johnson.
RB: Gus Edwards, Baltimore Ravens
Fantasy Pros ECR: RB36
JK Dobbins just can’t get a break. After coming back healthy from an ACL tear, Dobbins tore his Achilles in the second half of what was looking like a great performance for the young running back. The Baltimore Ravens have had awful luck with the health of running backs the past couple of years.
A familiar name will be the starter now – Gus Edwards. Edwards has been a consistent back for the team and will lead the Ravens’ rushing attack. Edwards only ran for 32 yards in Week 1, but did average four yards per carry and was the second-leading rusher against the Houston Texans, behind Lamar Jackson with 38 yards.
The Ravens face a Bengals defense that gave up 5.2 yards per carry on 40 rush attempts to the Browns last week. The Ravens’ offense in week one did not show the change in philosophy that many thought it would. The uncertainty of Mark Andrews playing this week could cause them to lean on the run yet again. Gus Edwards does not necessarily give you much in the passing game but will be getting the goal-line carries for the team and I think is a good bet to get at least one touchdown this week.
WR: Nico Collins, Houston Texans
Fantasy Pros ECR: WR41
Could this finally be the breakout for Nico Collins? Based on Week 1, it sure looks like it. Collins had six catches on 11 targets for 80 yards in a loss to the Ravens. In comparison, the most targets he has had in a single season is only 66. For his career, Collins is only averaging five targets per game. He only has three touchdowns in his career, so that could limit his ceiling. But if he can get a similar target share each week, sign me up.
This week Collins and the Texans get an easier matchup against the Indianapolis Colts. They gave up the sixth-highest amount of fantasy points to WRs in Week 1. I know that was mostly because of Calvin Ridley, but if Collins can put up that production against the Ravens, I think he could do better against the Colts’ defense. Other than the Travis Etienne’s 26-yard run, the Colts held the Jacksonville Jaguars run game in check. I think the way the Texans will have to score is through the air.
TE: Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys
Fantasy Pros ECR: TE17
The Dallas Cowboys beat the New York Giants handedly in Week 1 and the offense really did not have to do much. Jake Ferguson was not overly productive, with only two receptions for 11 yards but had a whopping seven targets from Dak Prescott. His seven targets would lead the team; and on the broadcast, they made a point in talking about how high Prescott was on Ferguson. Let’s not forget in 2021, when Dak was healthy for the full year, Dalton Schultz received over 100 targets.
The New York Jets have a great defense, but they did give up the 11th-highest fantasy points to tight ends in Week 1. In 2022, they gave up the 12th-highest with over 10 fantasy points per game. The two-headed monster for the Buffalo Bills at TE caught seven passes on eight targets for 51 yards. The Jets’ corners are very good, so I see Ferguson being very involved in the middle of the field and having a big day.
Good luck to everyone this week! Hopefully these Week 2 sleepers can take your fantasy football team over the top. Make sure to follow our content all year so we can help you to be a League Winner!
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Brandon Haye
Brandon grew up in Jacksonville, Florida and works as a health insurance data analyst. He has no children, but two fur babies - Squirt and Brownie. He and his wife, Katie, spend their time playing poker and enjoying time with their pups. Brandon is a huge Michigan Wolverine and Jacksonville Jaguars fan. He at one time was in 77 fantasy leagues and loves the game of football. Brandon started writing for The Leauge Winners in 2021.