The Indianapolis Colts hope to have an improved season after acquiring Carson Wentz via trade. He could make a big impact in fantasy football, as many believe he can get back on track after leaving the Philadelphia Eagles. It makes sense, as he’s in a better situation now with the Colts hoping to make the playoffs in 2021. Even so, Wentz struggled last year, finishing with 2,620 yards through the air, 276 rushing yards, 16 passing touchdowns, and five rushing touchdowns. Additionally, he threw 15 interceptions on the year, which hurt his fantasy value quite a bit.
He ended up with 213.4 fantasy points in PPR formats and finished as the QB22, per Fantasy Pros. His production should go up, however, the question remains. Will Wentz make enough of a jump in production to help you win your fantasy leagues?
Even though fantasy players and Colts fans are hopeful for Wentz to return to full form, there is reason to believe he won’t. He’s in a better situation in Indianapolis but it isn’t perfect by any means. With that said, here are three reasons why Carson Wentz is not a league winner in 2021.
Fantasy Football: Wentz’s 2021 Outlook
Lack of Receiver Depth
The Colts are entering the 2021 NFL Season with a questionable receiving core. TY Hilton returns, but he’s aging and isn’t the same receiver he used to be. Michael Pittman aims to be the starting receiver in Indy, but he was underwhelming in his rookie campaign. There is a ton of excitement surrounding Parris Campbell, however, he has had trouble staying healthy throughout his career so far.
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Additionally, the tight-end situation isn’t anything to get excited about. Rumors are still swirling around the front office trading for Zach Ertz, but that has yet to come to fruition. Even if the Colts acquire Ertz, he’s not enough to give the Colts passing game the boost it needs to produce a consistent QB1 in fantasy football. It’ll be a nice change of pace for Wentz as he should have more time in the pocket. Although that’s true, his receivers have to step up in a big way for him to remain relevant in the fantasy world.
The Colts Could Rely on the Run Game
Due to the lack of receiver depth, the Colts could be a run-first team. The offensive line is built to open run lanes, and the Colts have a stellar backfield. Jonathan Taylor looks to become the next star running back in the league, while Nyheim Hines serves as an excellent third-down specialist. It’d be crazy for this franchise to not utilize their running backs, as this is the strongest aspect of the roster.
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For that reason, look for Indianapolis to start the year off as a run-first offense. The coaching staff will want to smooth Wentz into the offense so he builds confidence. He seemed to lose some during his final year in Philadelphia, so getting him comfortable in the pocket is a priority. Focusing on the run game and throwing short, intermediate passes is the fastest way to increase confidence. This will likely help the Colts win games, but it could negatively impact Wentz’s production in fantasy football.
Projected to be Average
ESPN’s 2021 projections for Carson Wentz are unimpressive. They have him finishing the year with 3,496 passing yards, 232 rushing yards, 23 touchdowns through the air, three touchdowns on the ground, and 13 interceptions. Following PPR scoring, those projections have Wentz ending up with 260.06 fantasy points, making him the QB18 on the year.
His current ADP on Fantasy Pros is 139, which means he’s getting drafted between rounds 11-14 in single QB, redraft formats. To put it in perspective, had Wentz scored 260.06 fantasy points last season, he would have finished behind Cam Newton, but ahead of Baker Mayfield. He would have been the QB17 with ESPN’s projection.
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That’s really not much of a difference for a quarterback who is supposed to be in a better situation. Wentz is likely to be a QB2 with FLEX appeal if you need someone to fill in for a bye week. When drafting quarterbacks this year, avoid Carson Wentz, as you can draft someone else with a higher ceiling in the same range. Some quarterbacks that should be available in rounds 11-14 are Baker Mayfield, Daniel Jones, and Tua Tagovailoa. Each of them has the potential to be a major fantasy producer next season and would be a smarter draft selection than Carson Wentz.
