Antonio Brown is a player who is known to cause a lot of issues off the field, while being one of the greatest WR’s to ever play while on the field. After playing a Super Bowl winning season with the Buccaneers, AB decided to re-sign with them in free agency. signing his one-year, $6.25 million contract. Fantasy football managers are skeptical of Antonio Brown this year as he is going as the WR42 in Underdog ADP right now. But, some believers think that he still has something left to prove while playing with the GOAT.
Is he still the same player who finished as a Top-5 fantasy football WR from 2013-2018? Could he really be the leading receiver for Tampa Bay’s WR room? There is only one way to find out.
First, let’s look at AB’s fantasy finishes by since 2013 (PPR)
- 2013: WR3
- 2014: WR1
- 2015: WR1
- 2016: WR1
- 2017: WR1
- 2018: WR5
- 2019: WR151 (one game)
- 2020: WR65 (eight games)
Obviously, he has some insane numbers in his career; but he hasn’t really produced a great season since 2015. After playing only one game with the New England Patriots last year (due to numerous off-field issues and an eight game suspension in 2020), Brown returned to the Bucs and played in 11 games, including the playoffs. That being said, let’s look at how he actually finished while playing last year.
First off, AB was the WR24 in fantasy football PPG last year (minimum 8 games). He also was WR18 in PPR from Weeks 10-17 last year. Those numbers are great, but how good were Mike Evans and Chris Godwin during this stretch?
During Weeks 10-17, Mike Evans was the WR10 and Chris Godwin was the WR15. Obviously, they were better. But it is impressive that AB could even play that well during such an extended layoff. Granted, AB did have a monster Week 17 with Evans getting hurt early in the game – cue silly argument how week 17 was when he was hitting his stride – but AB showed he still has a ridiculous ceiling.
How about target distribution in the games they all played together? In those 11 games (including playoffs), the big three had as follows:
- Godwin: 78 targets
- Evans: 77 targets
- Brown: 76 targets
Mike Evans and Chris Godwin were slightly better, but people forget about the narrative about Antonio Brown playing in Tampa. Mike Evans was going into his 7th year, and his 2nd in this offense with a full season to prepare. Chris Godwin was going into his 4th year in Tampa, and his 2nd year in this offense with a full season to prepare.
Antonio Brown signed with the Bucs after Week 7 of last season. He had played just one game since 2019, coming off numerous off-field incidents and a 8 week suspension in 2020. None of that mattered though, because he then joined the Bucs and played just two weeks later! Not only did he play, he was the WR24 in fantasy football PPG while playing with two Pro Bowl WRs.
But wait, I hear you, what do the advanced metrics and Reception Perception say? He finished 10th in PFF receiving grade among players with 70+ targets last year. He was 22nd in the NFL in yards per route run with 2.07 per PlayerProfiler. That is fine and dandy, but what does ReceptionPerception have to say?
These charts from Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception show that he is still wildly successful as a route runner, finishing above-average in 8/10 routes. He also finished in the 88th percentile in beating man coverage since 2014. In addition, he also finished in the 82nd percentile beating zone coverage since 2014. All of these numbers show that he may not be the player that was the WR1 for four consecutive years, but he clearly still has it.
The biggest thing that makes AB a value in fantasy football drafts is his ADP. Moreso considering that Mike Evans is the WR15 in ADP and Chris Godwin going at WR18. AB is going as the WR42 and as we have seen so far, could legitimately be the number one weapon for this offseason. This is not to say that AB is better than these guys, but he’s shown to be capable to perform as a WR. With (seemingly) no suspensions looming, why are we fading this guy? What other players going outside the Top-40 WR’s have finished as a Top-5 WR before?
NOBODY!
AB has unparalleled upside if an injury occurs to Godwin or Evans. As he showed last year, he still is a very good player and certainly will outproduce his ADP if he plays 17 games. I’m all in on Antonio Brown at his draft price this year and will draft him in every league I can.
