As the 2023 NFL Draft rapidly approaches, fantasy football managers are left to decide what to do with their running back room. I rarely advocate for buying veteran running backs in the off-season, as the landscape of a team’s backfield can shift dramatically from now until Week 1. The draft, training camp, preseason and injuries can take a running back that seemingly held value, and turn him into waiver-wire fodder. This is an article in a series as I take a division-by-division look at the backfields around the league.
So, with that in mind, let’s take some time to look at each team’s running back situation to see who might be in the market to add or subtract a player from their backfield in the AFC North and AFC South.
You can check my previous article in the series, highlighting the AFC East and AFC West, here.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens
JK Dobbins- Gus Edwards- Justice Hill
This is going to be the last chance for fantasy football managers to buy low on JK Dobbins. By the time Week 1 rolls around, he should be fully recovered from his knee injury – and in for a major breakout in 2023. Year two of a running back’s return from an ACL injury is typically when you see them return to their peak. That will be the case here.
Edwards and Hill are little to no competition behind Dobbins. This will be his backfield to dominate. Between the injury concerns and his lack of pass-catching upside, managers will be down on Dobbins. This will cause him to slip in drafts more than many expect. Draft him now, an explosion is on its way.
The backup duo in Baltimore is in serious need of an upgrade and this could be a prime landing spot for a late-round rookie. Edwards certainly has shown his efficiency in the past but lacks any upside and reliability.
Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Mixon- Trayveon Williams- Chris Evans
Time to throw a little chaos into the mix. At face value, the Bengals appear to have their roster in place and will run it back for another shot at a Super Bowl. But with the pending legal issues of starter Joe Mixon, and him rapidly approaching the age cliff, there have been rumors that Mixon could be released in favor of an early round rookie running back. This would seem to be the ideal landing spot for Bijan Robinson. If he ultimately lands here, his stock is going to go through the roof.
Trayveon Williams and Chris Evans provide very little behind Mixon – or Bijan. With the departure of Samaje Perine, the Bengals will likely select a rookie running back later in the draft regardless of who is their starter. This roster is solid from top to bottom. They can certainly afford a luxury pick like a first round running back.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Najee Harris- Jaylen Warren- Anthony McFarland
After a breakout rookie season, Najee Harris quickly came back down to earth. He appeared to be a perfect check down target for the statue that was Ben Roethlisberger. He doesn’t seem to be as vital to an offense run by rookie Kenny Pickett. What will come of him in year three of his NFL career will largely depend on whether or not Pickett progresses in his second year. While Harris does come with his share of risk, he figures to come at a heavy discount after being taken in the first round of fantasy football drafts in 2022. This could make him a risk worth taking.
Backup RB Jaylen Warren showed flashes of usefulness throughout the 2022 campaign. If given a chance, he could prove to be a serviceable fantasy football asset. The more likely scenario is that he continues to eat into Harris’ workload rendering both of them unreliable in fantasy. Anthony McFarland, on the other hand, offers little more than injury-replacement value. He should not be on anyone’s fantasy radar even in the deepest of leagues.
Cleveland Browns
Nick Chubb- Jerome Ford- Demetric Felton
This is a prime landing spot for a rookie running back. Kareem Hunt won’t be returning and Nick Chubb is getting up there in age – in addition to being injured frequently.
Jerome Ford was a player that intrigued me coming out of college, and he looked more than adequate in his limited action as a rookie. I see myself stashing him on my taxi squads. He is likely to see a larger role with Hunt gone. At some point Ford will see a start, as a Nick Chubb injury seems like a yearly inevitability. At cost, Ford may prove to be a great value and useful player for fantasy teams that go Zero-RB. He shouldn’t be viewed as a standalone draft pick, but he has the potential to be a useful handcuff, albeit with a limited ceiling.
Demetric Felton is in the same boat as Ford. He holds no standalone value; but with Chubb as the starter he is likely to see at least one week of useful fantasy production. Felton doesn’t need to be drafted. He can likely be scooped off the waiver wire in the event his time ever comes.
AFC South
Indianapolis Colts
Jonathan Taylor- Deon Jackson- Zack Moss
This is a boring one. The Colts backfield belongs to Jonathan Taylor. They are going to ride him until the wheels fall off. Whether or not he will continue to be an uber-elite fantasy player is the question. What we do know is that he will be a three-down workhorse as long as he stays healthy.
Deon Jackson and Zack Moss are nothing more than backups. Jackson had a few productive fantasy weeks when Taylor was injured, but is nothing more than a waiver wire injury replacement.
Moss on the other hand only holds value if his reception totals hold steady. He is most valuable in full PPR leagues – but even then he is best left on waivers. There is little to see here unless you draft Taylor in round one.
Houston Texans
Dameon Pierce- Devin Singletary- Mike Boone
Dameon Pierce exploded as a third round rookie in 2022. He was highly productive despite battling injury late in his rookie campaign. He also seemed to hit a rookie wall late in the year, as he had never seen such a heavy workload. While Pierce certainly over-achieved as a rookie, I don’t expect the same level of production in his sophomore season. Third round running backs are not typically a stable commodity. The Texans have already indicated they feel he may not be a workhorse, as they brought in Devin Singletary from Buffalo.
Singletary is a player that many analysts had high hopes for, but outside of a few blowup games he never really produced at a consistent level for the Bills. This can be attributed to a high passing volume offense and Josh Allen vulturing rushing touchdowns. While I am not overly excited about Singletary on his new team, I do like him enough to believe that he will cut into the workload of Pierce. This backfield has every indication of being a running back by committee and may hurt both Pierce and Singletary in fantasy football.
Mike Boone has never been a thing, and I don’t expect that to change. He should be left on waiver wires in all leagues. He would need a long series of events in order for him to be relevant in any significant way.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Travis Etienne- JaMycal Hasty- D’Ernest Johnson
Travis Etienne has the draft capital and skillset to be a three-down workhorse. The question is will the Jaguars burn another high pick on a running back or will they roll with their current running back room. If JaMycal Hasty and D’Ernest Johnson go into the season as the only competition for Etienne, the sky will be the limit – and he should easily finish as a top ten fantasy running back.
Hasty and Johnson have both flashed on occasion when they were presented with an opportunity. Johnson in particular showed he could be every bit as productive as Hunt and Chubb when he was given the backfield in Cleveland. Whether or not he can translate that into relevant fantasy production remains to be seen, but he is certainly worth keeping an eye on in deeper leagues.
Tennessee Titans
Derrick Henry- Hassan Haskins- Julius Chestnut
I love this backfield. There have been rumors that the Titans may move on from Derrick Henry. If they do, I hope they don’t trade for or draft anyone else. I have been sky-high on both of the running backs the Titans drafted last season.
Julius Chestnut was my small school sleeper in rookie drafts. Hassan Haskins was a beast during his Michigan career. If either of them gets the chance to be an every down player, they may be a huge fantasy football value. Chestnut is big and fast; and is on my watch list in leagues everywhere. Haskins would probably be the first in line to get a shot over Chestnut, so he is likely the one worth a late round flier.
Even in the event that the Titans don’t move on from Henry, both backups should be rostered. It’s increasingly unlikely that the aging Henry manages to stay healthy with his typical workload. The time to pass the torch in the Tennessee backfield is rapidly approaching.
