As the 2023 NFL Draft rapidly approaches, fantasy football managers are left to decide what to do with their running back room. I rarely advocate for buying veteran running backs in the off-season, as the landscape of a team’s backfield can shift dramatically from now until Week 1. The draft, training camp, preseason and injuries can take a running back that seemingly held value, and turn him into waiver-wire fodder. This is an article in a series as I take a division-by-division look at the backfields around the league.
So, with that in mind, let’s take some time to look at each team’s running back situation to see who might be in the market to add or subtract a player from their backfield.
AFC East
Buffalo Bills
Damien Harris- James Cook- Nyheim Hines
The Bills’ backfield is an intriguing one for fantasy football. Many analysts anticipated that they could be in the market for a running back in the draft this month; but, with the addition of Damien Harris in free agency, that appears to be a long shot.
Devin Singletary has moved on from the team and has been replaced by Harris. This is a net zero, as Singletary and Harris were amazingly similar last season. Harris doesn’t figure to move the needle one way or another. Harris could provide good late-round value for a team attempting a Zero-RB build, as the touchdown upside on a potent offence is there, but he lacks any significant value consistently.
Cook would seem to be the player in this backfield with the highest potential upside. Heading into his second year, Cook could see a rise in both carries and targets. He could have good late-round value as a potential sleeper.
Hines is a puzzle. With Cooks on the team, Hines is essentially rendered a moot point. He should be nothing more than a waiver wire addition in the event of a significant injury to one of the above players.
Miami Dolphins
Raheem Mostert- Jeff Wilson- Myles Gaskin
The Dolphins have been a highly desired destination for the majority of the rookie running backs. Mike McDaniel has always produced solid fantasy football running backs despite their higher-than-usual injury history. The entire backfield was available in free agency heading into the off-season and a rookie addition seemed to be imminent. The problem however, was that the Dolphins have since re-signed both veteran running backs leading to a muddied situation.
Mostert and Wilson are very similar. They are both high-speed, straight-line runners that fit well into the “49ers” run scheme. It was no surprise that they have both been brought back for another season.
Both players have a lengthy injury history and are getting to an advanced age. They are reliable and productive flex options when healthy, and should go in their usual mid-round range. They may not win you a fantasy championship but they will outproduce their ADP – even with the inevitable injury.
Myles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed are on this roster as injury depth. At some point, they will both see action when the aging starters go down to injury, but neither holds any long-term value for fantasy football managers.
It’s likely that the Dolphins take the 49er’s draft approach and add a late-round running back who will eventually be a waiver-wire darling when he gets his chance to shine due to injuries.
New England Patriots
Rhamondre Stevenson- James Robinson- Pierre Strong
The Patriots have always been an unreliable backfield to target. Bill Belichick seems to hate fantasy football managers and shows little loyalty to his starters.
Rhamondre Stevenson had a breakout year in 2022. With the departure of Damien Harris, his hype will be at an all-time high. The worry is that the Patriots will do what they normally do, and turn this backfield into a committee, rather than turning him loose.
Stevenson will go higher in fantasy football drafts than anyone could imagine and will likely be a bust. By all accounts, the Patriots have scouted and been involved with basically every passing-catching running back in this draft class. They will likely draft a running back this year, who at the very least, will eat into Stevenson’s target.
New England also has two running backs from last season’s draft. Pierre Strong and Kevin Harris don’t profile to be lead running backs but, they are both more than capable of seriously eating into Stevenson’s workload. This is a situation that scares me. The cost to draft Stevenson is far too high to produce a solid return on investment. I likely will not have too many shares of him heading into the 2023 season.
New York Jets
Breece Hall- Zonovan Knight- Michael Carter
Breece Hall is the future for New York. Unfortunately for the Jets, that future may be on hold until midseason. Hall is coming back from a serious knee injury. Whenever he returns, he likely will take some time to ramp up to full speed again. The other thing to consider is that it is very likely that Hall will not be on the field at all until mid-season. Hall is a future star. But for redraft purposes, he is a running back that I am avoiding – as he will be on a JK Dobbins-like path in his return from injury. Buy him low in Dynasty if you can, but let someone else draft him this year.
Zonovan Knight and Michael Carter are interesting. One of the two is going to be a huge value this season. The duo will be largely forgotten until it is established that Hall is going to miss time; at which point it needs to be determined which one will see the largest bump in production.
The talent would indicate that Carter is the one to stash. But the Jet’s usage after Hall’s injury in 2022 would indicate that they prefer to turn the backfield over to Knight. I prefer to go with Knight in hopes that he could take over as the starter, but both of them are worth stashing on the bench in early drafts.
AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs
Isiah Pacheco- Clyde Edwards Helaire- LaMical Perine
Isiah Pacheco seems like he’ll take over the backfield in Kansas City from Clyde Edwards-Helaire. The departure of Jerick McKinnon would only seem to solidify Pacheco’s role as the lead back on this team. The only problem is that Pacheco is a Day 3 running back, and the Chiefs could easily use a pick in the first three rounds at the position.
Edwards-Helaire’s time with the Chiefs and as a fantasy-relevant running back seemed to have crashed as quickly as it took off. He is likely to find his way onto waiver wires everywhere. This backfield is likely to see a significant shakeup at the NFL Draft. If the Chiefs don’t draft someone, they will surely sign one of the remaining free agents; maybe a signing of Ezekiel Elliott or a reunion with Kareem Hunt is on the horizon.
Las Vegas Raiders
Josh Jacobs- Zamir White- Ameer Abdullah
Many have said that Josh Jacobs’s 2022 breakout was because he was in a contract year, and the Raiders simply rode him into the ground to let him walk in free agency. Well, the good news for fantasy football managers is that the same situation is shaping up in 2023.
Jacobs was brought back on the franchise tag. The Raiders have little reason to worry about wear and tear on their star running back. Expect Las Vegas to ride Jacobs as far as they can before letting him sign elsewhere in free agency with significantly more miles on his engine.
I expect Jacobs to finish as a top-five running back for fantasy football, as he does his best to secure a long-term contract in 2024. Zamir White was a rookie I had high hopes for, but Jacobs has poured water over those flames.
With Jacobs the starter at least in 2023, it will likely be another year until White sees his chance to shine. Those are valuable years of a running back’s career that are essentially being wasted. The clock is ticking on White to carve out a role and prove he can be a workhorse back.
Ameer Abdullah is little more than a pass-catching specialist who will have occasional value in full PPR leagues, but will struggle to be useful in any other fashion. He can be ignored in redraft leagues.
Los Angeles Chargers
Austin Ekeler- Joshua Kelley- Isaiah Spiller
Another prime landing spot for Bijan Robinson, as we find another team rumoured to be moving on from their aging superstar.
Austin Ekeler has been productive ever since taking over the job from Melvin Gordon. But, he has started to show signs of losing a step and been plagued by injuries in recent seasons. At some point, he will also experience serious touchdown regression. He’s on a crash course with Father Time, who will rear his ugly head sooner rather than later.
Should the Chargers decide to move on, it will likely be because they decided to use an early draft pick on a running back. Should this scenario play out, expect Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs to be their first-round pick.
If Ekeler returns for one more season before testing free agency, this is a great spot to draft the backup running back who will almost certainly hold value at some point during the season. The issue here is that Los Angeles has been terrible at drafting backup running backs. Between Kelley and Spiller, we don’t have any clue which one of them, if either, would hold value in the event of an Ekeler injury. This is an interesting backfield to monitor for sure. Keep an eye on it.
Denver Broncos
Javonte Williams- Samaje Perine- Tony Jones
If you draft Javonte Williams in 2023 redraft leagues, DO NOT leave your draft without Samaje Perine. He may be the steal of the year. If we follow the JK Dobbins timeline (Williams’ injury is far worse) Williams won’t be able to return until approximately Week 8. If he progresses as Dobbins did, he will likely not be back up to full speed until the start of the 2024 season. Perine will be drafted late or not at all and will bring you to quadruple the return that you put into him.
Tony Jones provides little value behind Perine – as he showed in a brief stint with the Saints. Unless the Broncos draft a Day 2 or 3 running back, I expect this to be Perine’s backfield for the first half of the season; and a committee in some form for the second half of the season. The talent is there for Williams but by all reports, he just isn’t progressing in a way that will help you in the 2023 leagues.
