Fantasy Football: Best and Worst Redraft Values, AFC East Edition

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fantasy football Stefon Diggs

In our sixth edition, we head over to the eastern seaboard to check out what is cooking in the AFC East (you can view the last piece on the NFC East’s fantasy football redraft values here). The Bills behind Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs finally took down the Patriots’ dynasty. As a result, for the first time since 2008, someone other than New England has won the division.

As we head into the 2021 season, it looks as if everyone is playing for second behind Buffalo. If a team can dethrone Buffalo, it is the Miami Dolphins. Years of rebuilding have finally paid off, and the team has the talent to challenge the division. The deciding factor on if the Dolphins take another step forward relies on the arm of Tua Tagovailoa. The Patriots had eight players opt out due to Covid last season, which lead the NFL, and it was the first season since 1999 without Tom Brady on the roster (I know, it’s crazy to think about). Lastly, the Jets finally rid themselves of the Adam Gase stank and hopefully put the players and staff in place to help them become a winning organization.

Buffalo Bills Projected O/U 11 Wins

The Bills look like a Superbowl contender this year, as only Kansas City projects for more wins among the AFC teams. With Allen leading an offense that will push to lead the NFL in yards and points, the Bills have the firepower to play with anyone in the NFL.

The questions regarding the Bills, focus on the defensive side of the ball. The defense was average outside of turnovers generated, and if they regress in that department, this division could become more interesting than expected.

Good: Stefon Diggs WR3 ADP 10.5

What’s not to love about Diggs? A player that the fantasy football community faded last season; Diggs joined Buffalo and made them eat crow as they watched Diggs and Allen form one of the best tandems in the NFL. (I would know, as I faded Diggs last year 😬.)

Diggs was an absolute force during the past season; finishing 1st in the trifecta of targets, receptions, and yards. Diggs ‘lacked’ in the touchdown department though (with eight) which would made him finish as the WR3 behind Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill with 328 fantasy football points.

I have Diggs rated as my WR1 this upcoming season, so getting him as the 3rd WR in a draft is a steal. You should have no concern drafting Diggs at his price. Know you will be getting a proper target hog who has minimal competition on his team for targets. Diggs and Allen will produce fantasy points galore in 2021. Make sure you grab one-half of this spectacular duo.

Bad: Gabriel Davis WR63 ADP 137.4

Gabriel Davis was an enjoyable dart throw last year, as he cost almost nothing in drafts. My issue this year is where Davis is going, particularly ahead of his teammate Cole Beasley who outperformed Davis across the board last season.

Why are we expecting Davis to supplant both Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders for the WR2 position in Buffalo? Outside of his massive outlier touchdown season, numerous red flags surround this player. Regarding touchdowns, the 19% touchdown rate was higher than the touchdown rate Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill produced, who both had outlier touchdown seasons themselves.

Davis needs to dramatically improve upon his role in Buffalo if he becomes anything more than a boom-bust player in fantasy football. The problem is that Davis was not heavily involved in Buffalo, and does not project to improve that rate for the upcoming season, as both Beasley and Sanders will be involved at a higher rate..

Considering that, you are relying on touchdowns from a wide receiver, which has proven to be a losing bet. We chase targets in fantasy football, and if a player regresses in touchdowns without gaining volume, Davis is a fade at his current cost this year.

Miami Dolphins Projected O/U 9.5 Wins

The Dolphins are interesting to try and project. Bringing in Will Fuller and Jaylen Waddle should be a blessing for Tua, as they are perfect for his skill set. The question is whether they can keep up with Buffalo throughout a 17-game season.

Nonetheless, both sides of the ball look ready to take a step forward and secure Miami as a contender; for not just this year, but many more after it. As with every team, it comes down to what level of play you get from the quarterback.

Good: Myles Gaskin RB27 ADP 72.7

It is surprising to see Myles Gaskin as the first Dolphin’s player drafted. Do not let that scare you, as Gaskin was a highly productive college RB who proved that the 7th round draft capital did not match his talent last year. The fear over Malcolm Brown stealing touches has been dramatically overblown. Malcolm Brown is not going to keep Myles Gaskin off of the field.

Fantasy football managers want running backs who catch passes, and Gaskin was a revelation in the passing game last year. Gaskin would end up finishing top-10 in numerous receiving metrics; such as Route Participation, Target Share, Yards Per Route Run, Yards Per Reception, and Catch Rate. Gaskin managed to finish 10th in PPG with 16.4. Gaskin did this by finishing top-11 in Opportunity Share and Snap Share. The Dolphins treated Gaskin as the workhorse, and with no one to challenge him in 2021, he will smash his current ADP.

Bad: Jaylen Waddle WR47 ADP 92.4

Why is Waddle going almost 20 picks ahead of DeVante Parker this year? I know we love rookies, but Parker had the better pedigree coming out of college and had his second consecutive 100+ target season. Waddle has had moments at Alabama that drop your draw, as his speed is legit. The problem is that Waddle never fully put it together, and he is one of my biggest fades going into this year at his current price.

Not only does Waddle have to deal with Parker, but he is only going five picks behind Will Fuller. Fuller is an upgraded version of Waddle who has shown what he can do at the NFL level. How are we expecting Waddle to do in year one being the alpha in this passing attack? Waddle was never the alpha in college, is an older prospect who broke out late; yet we are willing to bet that will happen as a rookie?

Waddle profiles at a deep threat; someone who can legitimately take the top off a defense, not a player who will dominate targets. If you are chasing a deep threat, go after Gabe Davis or Nelson Agholor later in the draft. Please do not waste a pick on a player not guaranteed to be top-4 in targets on his team. Let someone else draft Jaylen Waddle, and be happy you passed on him at his current price.

New England Patriots Projected O/U 9.5 Wins

My initial reaction to that projected win total is that it feels high. But are we sure this Patriots group is good enough to push double-digit wins? Unfortunately, I cannot say that I am. I like their moves this offseason, targeting players the NFL undervalued; but having them at the exact projected win total as Miami does not make sense. Vegas seems to value Belichick’s impact on a roster more than the talent on the team. While they improved on both sides of the ball, it will be interesting to see how this team stacks up against the league.

Good: Jakobi Meyers WR62 ADP 131.8

What’s not to love about Jakobi Meyers at his current cost? All he did was produce when given the opportunity last year. He achieved a 26.7% Target Share the previous season, best for 7th in the league. He did this while not seizing a significant role on the offense until Week 7.

From Week 7 on, Meyers received less than five targets just once. Yet, in that 11 game span, Meyers averaged a whooping 7.27 Targets per game! That is quite impressive from an offense that struggled to pass throughout the year. Meyers was the one dependable guy last season.

The Patriots went out and added Agholor and Kendrick Bourne in the offseason, along with the tight end duo of Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith. None of those guys project to be the alpha in this passing attack. They are all complementary pieces in a passing game. Meyers has been exceptional so far in the preseason and camp. At his current cost, I am drafting Meyers every time.

Bad: Damien Harris RB29 ADP 83.5

I do not see the upside in this pick. How can Damien Harris be of value when he once again projects to have minimal passing work? If you are in standard fantasy football leagues, go ahead and draft Harris; as he is the perfect late-round back in those leagues. The issue will always be that Harris offers a capped ceiling.

With the uncertainty at quarterback and offense, I am opposed to spending a seventh-round pick on Harris. I would rather draft Kareem Hunt. Given the fact I am fading Hunt as well, it tells you my thoughts on Harris for this year.

I understand the perceived appeal. Know that it is a trap at cost, and you will not be able to start Harris. Harris will be a touchdown dependant running back who is not attached to an elite offense. Therefore there is no upside at his cost. Instead, select James White many rounds later if you are interested in a Patriots running back to target.

New York Jets Projected O/U 6 Wins

This year, the Jets are an intriguing bunch. After years of failure (The Jets have had one winning season in the last decade) the team finally decided to pull the plug on the Adam Gase experiment. The Jets sent away Sam Darnold and brought in rookie QB Zach Wilson under new leadership.

It has made an immediate impact, as the Jets have hope for what feels like the first time in years. The Jets surrounded Zach Wilson with talent all over the offensive side of the ball. It may be a rough year, but Wilson should help this organization take a step in the right direction.

Good: Corey Davis WR47 ADP 92.1

Corey Davis has been a good NFL player in his career. The problem for him is that he never lived up to the billing of being a top-five pick. After an up and down first two years, the Titans drafted A.J. Brown and cemented Davis as the second fiddle in that passing attack. However, Davis played the best ball of his career in 2020 and earned a hefty contract to be the WR1 of the New York Jets this offseason.

Davis has shown a great connection with rookie Zach Wilson. They looked poised to help improve the Jets’ offense moving forward. While Elijah Moore is going nine picks behind Davis, I need to see something special from a rookie before I pick him over a veteran WR entering his prime years. Davis is the Jets WR you want this year, as he was efficient in a lower volume passing offense. Know you are making the correct choice by selecting Davis at his cost.

Bad: Michael Carter RB31 ADP 92.2

The preseason usage for Michael Carter has been concerning. The fantasy football community placed the “workhorse” label on Carter due to the perceived lack of talent in the Jets backfield. The problem is two-fold in this situation.

First, are we sure Carter is the best back in that backfield? Second, the coaching staff brought in Tevin Coleman from San Fransisco to compete with Ty Johnson and La’Mical Perine on the team.

Carter never profiled as a three-down running back to me, but more of someone who would be the receiving back on a team. Boosting him because of the situation is a dangerous game. If the situation changes, you are left holding the bag. Carter may be a second-half winner, as he slowly earns the coach’s trust throughout the year. However, I do not see a way for him to pay off at his current fantasy football ADP.

Jesse Moeller is a fascinating character. By day, he's a restaurant manager, but during his free time, he transforms into a fantasy football analyst. He's been playing fantasy football since 1999, which means he's been around the block a few times. But his passion for the game has never waned. Jesse is a devoted husband to his wife Andrea, whom he's been married to for five years. They have a lovely daughter Cecilia, who is now four years old. Jesse's journey into content creation began with The League Winners in 2021, and he hasn't looked back since. Dynasty is his passion, and his love for the game is infectious. Jesse is a true degenerate who loves the fantasy football and the community that supports it.

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