Fantasy Football: Best and Worst Redraft Values, AFC West Edition

2021 is shaping up to be a wild ride out West, and especially so in a fantasy football dynamic. This week we turn to the AFC West (you can view last week’s piece here) and take a peek into the division with elite offensive talent across the board. It has been the Chiefs and everyone else the last five years. Will Kansas City run it back for the sixth year, or will someone else grab the division title?

If anyone pushes them this year, it likely will be the L.A. team, as the Chargers have the talent to compete on both sides of the ball. The Broncos and Raiders are no slouches either, as they have enough talent to create problems throughout the season for Kansas City.

Kansas City Chiefs Projected 2021 Wins O/U 12

Vegas is not expecting a Super Bowl hangover for Kansas City, as they currently have the highest projected win total (at 12) for the upcoming season. Vegas has every right to believe Kansas City will continue its run of dominance it has enjoyed the last three years with Patrick Mahomes as the starting quarterback.

Since 2018, the Chiefs have a 38-10 record. Good enough to average over 12 wins per season. With how the Super Bowl ended, it made sense for management to rebuild the line; acquiring two top-end talents turning a weakness into a strength. There is very little to dislike about this team for the 2021 season, and it is hard to question Vegas having the Chiefs a heavy favorite.

Good: Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB15 ADP 21.1

The additions of Joe Thuney and Orlando Brown should benefit CEH as much as anyone in this offense for 2021. Even as the second half of the 2020 season went about as poorly as it could have for Clyde, there are many positive takeaways from his rookie year.

First, the coaching staff relied heavily on Edwards-Helaire early in the year, force-feeding him opportunities. While it did not go according to the script, Reid trusted CEH early in the season to show how confident the organization was in this player to handle the bellcow role.

The issue was the workload the Chiefs were giving a rookie. In the six games before Le’Veon Bell arrived, CEH was averaging over 23 touches per game. For 16 games, that equals out to 368 touches! That would have finished second only to Derrick Henry last year. The Chiefs saw that it was not sustainable and brought in a player to help lessen the work.

In the seven games CEH played with Le’Veon Bell, he was on pace for 221.7 touches. It is a drastic difference in usage. But, by doing this, the Chiefs chose to prolong CEH’s career in the NFL. With a year under his belt, the Chiefs will build on the base and improve his usage in 2021. We can expect points from a running back in an offense connected to Patrick Mahomes. Look for CEH to smash his fantasy football ADP of RB15 this upcoming season.

Bad: Tyreek Hill WR1 ADP 9.2

Kansas City is an extraordinary offense as it has the number one player at three different positions. However, paying peak value for all three players, it is doubtful that all three finish the season as the number one player at each position. Therefore, my vote for least likely to finish the season as the number one player is Tyreek Hill. While you cannot dispute the talent of Hill, what you can challenge is overall work compared to other players at the position.

Did you know that Hill has never led the Chiefs in targets? The last time someone other than Travis Kelce did it was Jeremy Maclin back in 2015. I’m not saying Hill will faceplant. I am telling you that you will get similar production from Diggs, Adams, Hopkins, and Ridley a full round later.

Pass on Hill in round one, grab the value in the second or third round. At the cost of a top ten pick, receivers can’t live up to that, especially when there is no clear-cut selection this year.

Los Angeles Chargers Projected Wins O/U 9

The Chargers are the discount Chiefs when it comes to value, as you are getting three top ten players at three different positions. Outside of those three, there are some intriguing options in Mike Williams (Look Up Mike Williams Day on Twitter) and Jared Cook. The meat of the fantasy football lineup is Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, and Justin Herbert. These three should carry you and the Chargers to a potential fantasy football playoff berth.

The Good: Keenan Allen WR10 ADP 28.3

Value is going to be a running theme in this piece. Grabbing elite players at a discount is how you win in fantasy football. On the other hand, reaching for a player too early is a time-honored tradition of how teams disappoint. Grabbing Allen in the third round locks in a top twelve player on your team.

At his current cost, I will have numerous shares of Allen for this year. Remember, Herbert was a rookie last season. Now that they have a year together, the duo can build on the numbers they put up. In the 13 games together, Allen was on pace for 297 PPR points, putting him 4th amongst WR’s.

Allen is continuously discounted each year due to his “lack of athleticism.” This further shows how impressive he has been in his career. Allen is known as a technician at the position for his route running prowess. Managers should not hold his age against him, as he does not rely on athleticism that others do to succeed. Would anyone be surprised if Allen has the best year of his career in 2021? I would not.

The Bad: Justin Herbert QB7 ADP 73.1

Here is the problem with the Chargers; as you have three players, you are spending premium draft capital. I expect them all to succeed. However, I see Herbert having the most challenging time living up to his draft capital cost.

The tweet above references that Herbert is likely to throw touchdowns at a lower rate, given that the team had an unsustainable overall passing touchdown rate. Imagine if the percentage of touchdowns from passing dropped from 72% in 2020, to 60%. That would take five passing touchdowns away from Herbert and put him outside the Top-10 of fantasy football quarterbacks.

It may not seem like a lot, but someone you are drafting that early can take away the advantage you thought you were gaining by selecting them in the top seven at the position. Why grab Herbert early when you can grab Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford, or Aaron Rodgers 30 to 40 picks later. These are the micro victories that differentiate a powerhouse team from a mediocre team in fantasy football.

Denver Broncos Projected Wins O/U 7.5

The Broncos are the biggest mystery, as they had a gift from the football gods fall into their laps this offseason and somehow screwed it up. A team ready to compete (sans the quarterback position), passed on Justin Fields and took a cornerback with the ninth overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.

While Surtain is a great building block, the quarterback is still the most prominent need. The Broncos did bring in Teddy Bridgewater, but that feels like a stopgap, not the solution to the problem. The quarterback situation put a damper on the excitement the fantasy community had for all the skill players.

Good: Jerry Jeudy WR30 ADP 67.2

A mere seven picks separate both Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton at the moment, so I went with the cheaper of the two. Sutton is still coming off an ACL injury, so I would prefer a healthy player who had a productive rookie season with Drew Lock as his quarterback.

Jeudy just missed out on a monster season as he was second in the NFL in Unrealized Air Yards with 965! If you are unsure what that metric is, it accounts for the total yards of passes not caught by a player. When someone has as much opportunity as Jeudy, it shows that he could have produced an elite rookie season. Regrettably, for one reason or another (Drew Lock), it did not all go according to plan for Jeudy.

Denver brought in Teddy Bridgewater, a much more accurate quarterback than Lock. Bridgewater will allow the talent of Jeudy, Sutton, and Noah Fant all to shine, as he is nowhere near as erratic of a quarterback as Lock. I feel good about grabbing Jeudy as WR30 and enjoying the production, as he will connect at a much safer rate with Teddy B in 2021.

Bad: Javonte Williams RB26 ADP 61.2

The value difference in cost between Williams and Melvin Gordon makes zero sense to me, as there is an inexplicable 50 pick difference in their ADP at the moment. Gordon seems to be the forgotten player in fantasy football circles, yet is the incumbent – who has a significant salary-cap hit.

Gordon is not going anywhere on the last year of his deal. He will drive Williams managers crazy throughout the year. You must anticipate Williams having a significant role in this offense as a rookie to justify his cost.

This is not a Mark Ingram–J.K. Dobbins situation where Ingram was clearly the worst back on the team. Melvin Gordon ran the 10th most routes, was 13th in route percentage, was 7th in big runs, and 12th in evaded tackles among RBs. Gordon is going to be a thorn in Javonte’s side.

Why pay the premium for Javonte when you can get the back who will put up similar production at half the cost? I have tried to figure out this ADP discrepancy and can not understand it in the slightest. Just know you made the correct decision, passing on Javonte and drafting Gordon multiple rounds later.

Las Vegas Raiders Projected Wins O/U 7.5

The Raiders will need an offensive explosion this year to win games consistently, as they have a bottom-tier defense. That is excellent news for Raiders’ fantasy football players. Derek Carr and Darren Waller should be the biggest beneficiaries to the Raiders, having to pass early and often in 2021. One of the receivers should be fantasy relevant, but good luck determining which one will be this upcoming year. I would anticipate high-scoring affairs in Raiders games this season.

Good: Darren Waller TE2 ADP 21.5

As much as I love George Kittle, Waller is the clear, TE2 this season. At his cost, I would even prefer him to Kelce this year. Let me show you what I mean. What team build sounds better to you? The combination of Kelce and CEH/A.J. Brown or Zeke/Tyreek and Waller as these are the players going at similar ADP? The difference between those skill players more than makes up for the slight difference between Kelce and Waller.

Waller has zero target competition for another season. Did you know Waller finished with 63 more targets than the player who finished second in targets? That’s right, Darren Waller is a target hog on a team with minimal competition for targets. Therefore, draft Darren Waller at the back half of the second round any time you can.

Here is something I found about Waller that blew my mind. Do you remember how Jeudy was second in unrealized air yards last year? Waller was second in completed air yards and first in unrealized air yards. Think of how involved a player has to be in an offense to achieve that double-dip. Waller also lead tight ends in numerous categories such as:

Targets, Reception, Target Rate, Deep Targets, Red Zone Targets, YAC, and finished top five in countless statistics. So invest in Darren Waller early and often in 2021. It is a winning strategy.

Bad: Henry Ruggs WR57 ADP 125.2

Talk about a misuse of draft capital by the Raiders last year. Gruden decided to pass on  every phenomenal 2020 WR for a speedster who never broke out in college. The Raiders completely misused Henry Ruggs as a rookie by turning him into a deep threat. Compare that to his time at Alabama, where Ruggs succeeded by getting out in space.

I found this extremely interesting, and it helped make sense of why Ruggs struggled so mightily his rookie year. Ruggs aDot at Alabama in 2019 was 11.7. In 2020 with the Raiders, his aDot was 17.4.

Putting a player in a role they are unfamiliar with as a professional is a recipe for disaster, and that is what played out for Ruggs. Waller dominates the middle of the field, so until Gruden can figure how to integrate the two, it will be a bumpy road for Ruggs in fantasy fantasy. At his cost, I would prefer to pass on Ruggs and grab John Brown or Bryan Edwards. Give me the cheaper options for the passing game.