Fantasy Football: Best and Worst Redraft Values, NFC West Edition

With the calendar turning to summer, that means we can officially start shifting our focus to fantasy football and the upcoming season. As we are only 45 days from the first NFL preseason game, I decided it would be an excellent time to look at each NFL division and select each team’s best and worst values according to average draft position (ADP). For this ongoing article, we will be using the Underdog Best Ball ADP found on 4for4.com.

We will be looking into our first division, the NFC West; a powerhouse division where each team has a realistic shot at reaching the playoffs. With all four teams projected to finish at or above eight wins, the push for the division title will be an enjoyable one. With the offseason moves the teams each team has made, they have put themselves in prime contention for a playoff spot.

Los Angeles Rams – Projected 2021 Wins O/U 10.5

The Rams have taken off like a rocketship this offseason with the addition of Mathew Stafford; as it has NFL fans and fantasy football managers alike excited for the potential championship run this team will make.

While Stafford, Cam Akers, and Tyler Higbee have seen the ADP skyrocket this offseason, the wide receivers have stayed in a similar range. Therefore, making them the easy winners for the best value on the team. While the Rams brought in DJax and drafted Tutu Atwell in the second, they will not infringe on Kupp or Woods workload.

Good: Robert Woods WR17 ADP 41.9:

While I like both Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp, I cannot ignore how involved in the offense Woods is. You can place Woods anywhere on the field, and he wins. While he spends some time in the slot, Kupp lives in the slot, spending more than 50% of the last two seasons lined up inside.

I prefer a guy who can win everywhere and does not require to be schemed open. (McVay does this better than anyone for Kupp.) My second reason is snap share. Woods did not come off the field, having the 16th-highest snap share at the position at 90.6%.

The most important ability is availability, and Woods has that in spades. You should feel thrilled getting Woods as the 17th WR off the board this season.

Bad: Tyler Higbee TE8 ADP 91.2

Didn’t we go through this last year? The fantasy football community built up Higbee to a similar draft slot, and we all watched as he massively disappointed his ADP.

In contrast, Higbee is a viable tight end two this year for me. My problem is taking Higbee at that cost is expecting him to reach his apex in 2021. Going this route is a losing strategy. If Higbee does not hit his absolute ceiling, you lose value on your team. If he does hit his ceiling, you kind of lucked out.

That is something every fantasy football manager should avoid. While I love this offense in 2021, it is challenging to support three passing options, leading to Higbee disappointing his current ADP.

San Fransisco 49ers – Projected 2021 Wins O/U 10.5

The 49ers experienced the Super Bowl loss hangover last year. The team struggled with injuries and ended up finishing 6-10.

However, with the team trading up to take Trey Lance with the third overall pick in the NFL Draft, it is clear they believe they’ve found the quarterback to take the offense to an elite level. With Nick Bosa coming back on the defensive side of the ball, there is palpable excitement around this team going into 2021.

Good: Brandon Aiyuk WR27 ADP 61.6

Brandon Aiyuk was elite as a rookie. It certainly caught me off guard. Aiyuk’s performance was nothing short of spectacular.

From weeks 7-17 last season, Aiyuk finished fourth in points per game with 18.4; trailing only Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, and Stefon Diggs. However, Aiiyuk’s value is depressed for two reasons: George Kittle and Deebo Samuel missed significant time to injury last year.

The 49ers spent the third overall pick on Trey Lance, making it challenging to project how the season plays out with a rookie quarterback. With Aiyuk, you are getting a premium talent with first-round draft capital in one of the best offenses in the league; all while being available in the fifth round of fantasy football drafts this year. Smash the button and enjoy the success Aiyuk will bring to your roster.

Bad: Deebo Samuel WR35 ADP 76.9

On the flip side, someone in this offense has to take a hit. In the latest Late Round podcast by JJ Zachariason, JJ states that a rookie quarterback likely cannot support two fantasy-relevant options historically, let alone three in a passing game.

Unless you are projecting Lance to pass at a similar clip to Joe Burrow last year (>40 attempts/game), the numbers do not add up. One of Lance’s biggest strengths is his rushing ability, which in particular hurts Deebo for fantasy football. Those rushing plays will come at his expense more than others.

George Kittle is a freak, and Aiyuk showed what he could do as a rookie in this offense. Both of them should still thrive in this offense. As Lance has a howitzer, so the 49ers should have zero problems pushing the ball down the field.

Seattle Seahawks – Projected 2021 Wins O/U 9.5

It has been an unusual offseason for the Seahawks as Russell Wilson called out management asking for more help for the first time in his career. Management listened to Wilson and lured Shane Waldron away from LA to take over play-calling duties in Seattle. It will be interesting to see how the offense looks in 2021.

Good: Tyler Lockett WR21 ADP 47.8

The fading of Tyler Lockett is one of the strangest things I have seen this fantasy football offseason. DK Metcalf‘s ADP has held strong while Lockett has completely fallen off a cliff.

The offense as a unit struggled in the second half last season, as Lockett also dealt with a knee sprain during that span. Yet, Lockett still managed to put up career highs in targets, receptions, touchdowns last season. Lockett also had a 100% route participation the previous season. Please do not fade Lockett this year, as it will be a career year for him in 2021.

Bad: Gerald Everett TE22 ADP 163.8

Teams with multiple receiving options do not feature the tight end. Everett seems like an enticing option at his price, but you’re better off targeting other options.

The upside of Everett is not as high as other tight ends going in his range. I would rather throw a dart at the names next to Everett in ADP; like Blake Jarwin, Jared Cook, Hunter Henry, and Cole Kmet. Those offenses either lack a secondary option or have the higher passing volume to allow a tight end to be relevant in fantasy football.

Both Lockett and Metcalf are high touchdown percent guys years in, and year out. In the last two years, the duo has a combined average touchdown rate of 10.95% of touches, limiting Everett’s impact in the passing game. Everett will not come close to being a Top-12 tight end this season.

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Arizona Cardinals – Projected 2021 Wins O/U 8

Arizona is an intriguing team this offseason. They brought in big-name veterans J.J. Watt and A.J. Green in free agency and spent top-tier draft capital on Zaven Collins and Rondale Moore; two elite athletes that they hope turn into cornerstones of the franchise. Will those moves be enough to help the Cards reach the playoffs?

Best: Rondale Moore WR63 ADP 141.1

Have you heard that he is only 5’7″? I know Rondale Moore is short, as that’s the one blemish on his prospect profile. If he were a few inches taller, Moore would have been a lock to be an early first-round pick this year. What Moore did as a freshman still has the devy community buzzing.

Moore enters an offense with an alpha WR in DeAndre Hopkins and not much else in the passing game. There is a massive opening for Moore to connect with Kyler Murray and impact his rookie year.

Replacing the ancient Larry Fitzgerald with Moore in the slot will do wonders for this offense. Green, Christian Kirk, and Andy Isabella have amounted to nothing in fantasy football circles the last few seasons. The competition is not there outside of Hopkins. At the minimal cost, Moore is a screaming value late in fantasy drafts.

Bad: Chase Edmonds RB27 ADP 69.8

This backfield looks to be a complete mess this season. Chase Edmonds seems to be the pass-catching back, while James Conner will be the early-down grinder and Red Zone back. Conner is the superior value at his price 36 picks later, as he will outperform Edmonds during the season.

Edmonds has had ONE Redzone carry in his career! No, that is not a typo. It’s clear to me that the Cardinals do not trust him in those situations. When the Cardinals get to those precious money downs, who do you believe they will trust?

Kenyan Drake was one of the most inefficient backs in the NFL last year, and he still amassed 264 touches to Edmonds 150. Edmonds will have the pass-catching in the backfield, that I see the Cardinals funneling some of that short passing to Rondale Moore this season. Invest in Conner this year much later, and know you made the correct choice.