Fantasy Football: Best and Worst Redraft Values, NFC South Edition

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This week we will be heading down to the dirty south to see what’s good with the teams of the NFC South (see the AFC West here). The Bucs and Saints are the treasures of this division, as they are the two teams projected to finish with a winning record. Unfortunately, both the Panthers and Falcons are currently rebuilding and will not challenge the division crown in 2021. While it may not be a hotly contested division, all four teams present intriguing fantasy football options on the offensive side of the ball.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Projected Wins O/U 11.5

The Bucs enter this year with the second-highest projected win total, only behind the Chiefs. The quarterback is a 43-year-old GOAT named Tom Brady, and it certainly feels that we have to wonder if Tom Brady is an alien. He shows no signs of slowing down on a team that was the first Super Bowl Champion to bring back all 22 starters from last season.

It should surprise no one that they are considered a heavy favorite to repeat as division champions this season. The weak link could be the age of the roster, as the only team currently older is the Patriots. Outside of age concerns, there are numerous reasons to expect this team to challenge for another Super Bowl.

Good: Antonio Brown WR43 ADP 88.6

Antonio Brown dominated fantasy football during the mid-2010s. Brown was flat-out unstoppable. From 2013-2018, AB never finished lower than 5th in PPR fantasy points. He averaged 171 targets for 114.3 receptions, 1,524.2 yards, and 11.2 touchdowns during that six-year window.

It went off the rails for Brown in 2019, as he did not see an NFL for 14 months. He wound up returning from suspension in the final eight games of 2020 and had 45 receptions for 483 yards on 62 targets. All the while competing with Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and Rob Gronkowski for targets.

Over those final eight games, Brown was the WR27 in PPG with 14.6. I am seeking to end up with Brown on all of my rosters at his current price. Make sure you invest in him this season; you’ll be happy you did at the minimal cost, and it will pay off generously.

Bad: Mike Evans WR15 ADP 37.9

 

Evans lived off of touchdowns during 2020 as he was Brady’s RZ target last season, leading the Bucs in targets (18), receptions (11), and touchdowns (9). Move to the 10-yard line, and Evans was amongst the league leaders in targets, receptions, and touchdowns as he finished 2nd, 4th, and 3rd in those categories. He was also the RZ threat for the Bucs last year, with a Target Share of 21.9%. Though funny enough, he finished behind both Brown and Godwin in Total Target Share. Evans was not the alpha we had grown to love during his time in Tampa Bay.

There are numerous reasons to fade Evans, and the easiest would be his 18.6% TD Rate – which was a career-high. That is not sustainable, even for someone who had averaged almost nine touchdowns per season, as Evans has. If Evans experienced his average touchdown rate last year, he would have scored eight touchdowns and finished as the WR21 on the season. I see no world where a player who was third in Target Share on his team last season lives up to his fantasy football ADP of the WR15. Take the discount and draft Antonio Brown five rounds later.

New Orleans Saints Projected Wins O/U 9

There is a massive question surrounding this team in 2021, and that is who will be the starting quarterback? Does Sean Payton turn to Jameis Winston, Taysom Hill, or play duck, duck, goose with the two this season?

Unfortunately, it is currently clouding the Saints’ outlook as they have one of the deepest, most talented rosters in the NFL outside of the perceived quarterback issues. Nevertheless, whoever the Saints decide to start, I believe they will push the Bucs and contend for the playoffs.

Good: Michael Thomas WR9 ADP 27.3

The fading of Michael Thomas is something I genuinely do not understand. Thomas has one injury-plagued season, and he’s getting pushed to the third round? How many wide receivers in the NFL can you make the case will see a Target Share at the same level as Thomas?

I would say the list is exclusive, as Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, DeAndre Hopkins, and Calvin Ridley are the only wide receivers in the NFL besides Thomas that will push near that 30% threshold. It takes a perfect storm of talent and situation for a receiver to hit that level of involvement in the offense. Thomas has both in his favor for the 2021 season.

While 2020 was considered a disappointing season, Thomas still finished fourth in the NFL with a 27.8% Target Share; and that was with the quarterback that everyone is so deathly afraid of in Taysom Hill. Drafting Thomas locks in a truly elite player at his current cost that gives you a weekly advantage at the position. So fade the noise, and take Thomas at his ADP all day, every day.

Bad: Alvin Kamara RB4 ADP 4.5

Must I be crazy to fade Kamara, a player coming off of the RB1 season? While I am a fan of the player this year, I do not see him living up to that premium cost. I am just not willing to pay the number four pick to acquire him. At that expense, I would prefer other runnings backs. Kamara still has the talent to be a first-round selection, but he should be moved back a few slots to the backend of the first round.

Why I am fading Kamara is simple, due to his expected regression in touchdowns and receiving work. Kamara has produced over 50% of his fantasy football points from receiving work the last two years. If that regresses, it will hit him harder than almost any other running back in fantasy football.

In addition, Taysom targeted Kamara at 13.4% during the previous season. Take that and compare it to Drew Brees, who targeted Kamara at a whopping 24.7%. If that does not concern you, how do you feel about Kamara scoring 21 total touchdowns last season? Does that seem like a repeatable number, as his career average is 14 touchdowns per season. It all adds up to a player overvalued in fantasy football drafts. Fade Kamara at his current cost this season.

Carolina Panthers Projected Wins O/U 7.5

The Carolina Panthers as a team showed improvement under first-year head coach Matt Rhule. The Panthers shipped off Teddy Bridgewater to the Broncos this offseason while acquiring Sam Darnold from the Jets. The Panthers passed on Justin Fields in the first round of the NFL draft, implying they assume they found the signal-caller to guide them into the future. The young talent on defense and firepower on offense; all that’s keeping the Panthers from contending is a quarterback. Time will tell if the Panthers betting on Darnold instead of Fields was the correct move.

Good: Robby Anderson WR31 ADP 67.7

I do not understand the difference in ADP between Robby Anderson and D.J. Moore this year. In Anderson’s first season in Carolina he finished top-10 in Target Share, Targets, Receptions, YAC, and Hog Rate. Anderson was the focal point of the Panthers’ passing attack alongside D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel. What hindered Anderson from being a difference-maker was his lack of touchdowns in 2020.Β 

Robby is due for some positive regression in the touchdown department. Of the wideouts with 15+ Redzone Targets in 2020, no one had fewer touchdowns than Anderson did (3). His career touchdown rate before last year was 9.66%. Last season it dropped to 3.15%, which was considerably worse than the average NFL receiving touchdown rate of 7.4%. If Anderson hit that touchdown rate in 2020, he would have scored 246.6 fantasy football points and finished as the WR13 on the season. Expect Anderson to outproduce his teammate D.J. Moore at a discounted cost.

Bad: D.J. Moore WR19 ADP 42.7

D.J. Moore has been a personal favorite dynasty asset of mine the past few seasons. Unfortunately, I currently do not see a way for him to live up to the price of a mid-fourth-round pick in redraft leagues. Moore’s role changed in 2020 as he was turned into the field stretcher, while Curtis Samuel and Robby Anderson worked the underneath and middle of the field. It led to another good but not great fantasy football season for Moore as he finished 28th in PPG with 14.1.

The Panthers decided to bring in Sam Darnold to help fix the most significant issue facing the offense – lack of scoring touchdowns. The last two years, Panthers quarterbacks have combined to throw for only 33 touchdowns.

My problem with that decision is how sure are we that Darnold is an upgrade at the quarterback position? He has done nothing to prove that he is indeed an upgrade over the last three years in New York. Without the increase in touchdowns for Moore, his fantasy football ceiling is limited. I will take other players going in the same range over Moore for 2021, including his teammate Robby Anderson.

Atlanta Falcons Projected Wins O/U 7

The Falcons have the feel of a team unsure of what the plan is moving forward. The offseason moves they made were honestly perplexing. Drafting Kyle Pitts while trading away the most outstanding player in franchise history (Julio Jones) has the community scratching its head on what the Falcons are doing.

Matt Ryan is an aging quarterback who has a handful of seasons left. The defense looks to be one of the worst in the NFL yet again. The offense will have to outscore teams to win games consistently in 2021. The question is can they do it?Β 

Good: Matt Ryan QB17 ADP 136.2

Matt Ryan produced another QB1 fantasy season in 2020, the ninth time in his illustrious career. While he is 36 years old, there is no reason to believe the coaching change will play a significant role in Matt Ryan’s fantasy football output. Why would Arthur Smith come in and not use the roster’s talent to his strengths as a coach? This team does not have Derrick Henry on the roster (Sorry, Mike Davis fans).

During Matt Ryan’s tenure in Atlanta, only once has the team been below a 55% pass rate for an entire season. That was Matt Ryan’s rookie season, back in 2008. Fade the noise of doom and gloom for Ryan and the offense. The addition of Pitts will help neutralize the loss of Julio this offseason, as the offense will go through Ryan, Ridley, and Pitts.

Bad: Mike Davis RB22 ADP 52.8

Mike Davis, before last season, never had a snap rate greater than 40%, more than 112 carries, or finished within the top-36 RB for fantasy football in a season. The Falcons will have numerous adverse game scripts that will have them among the league leaders for pass attempts this upcoming season.

Now that sounds like a boon for Mike Davis, and the problem is that Matt Ryan does not target the RB position at a high rate for fantasy football. The last time a Falcons RB received more than 70 targets in a season was 2015, when Devonta Freeman finished as the RB1 in fantasy. The previous five years in Atlanta, the number one pass-catching running back ended up with 52 targets and an 8.96% Target Share – which is nothing to write home about. I do not see a way for Davis to live up to his cost, as he is a low upside floor play in fantasy. Fade Davis at the price of RB22 this year.

Jesse Moeller is a fascinating character. By day, he's a restaurant manager, but during his free time, he transforms into a fantasy football analyst. He's been playing fantasy football since 1999, which means he's been around the block a few times. But his passion for the game has never waned. Jesse is a devoted husband to his wife Andrea, whom he's been married to for five years. They have a lovely daughter Cecilia, who is now four years old. Jesse's journey into content creation began with The League Winners in 2021, and he hasn't looked back since. Dynasty is his passion, and his love for the game is infectious. Jesse is a true degenerate who loves the fantasy football and the community that supports it.

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