Throughout this offseason, I have seen conflicting opinions regarding second-year wideout, Brandon Aiyuk. While a good amount are boarding the hype train, others are skeptical. Whether it’s too many mouths to feed with George Kittle and Deebo Samuel in the mix, or just plain nonbelievers; I am here to tell you to confidently draft this star in the making in your fantasy football leagues. I am officially planting my flag on the Brandon Aiyuk hill for the 2021 season.
The Numbers
In his rookie season, the former first-round pick flashed some signs of greatness. In just 12 games, Aiyuk was able to put up 748 receiving yards and five touchdowns on 60 catches. This was done on 96 targets. He also added 77 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns on six carries. Extrapolating his receiving numbers over a 16-game season, Aiyuk would have been on pace for 80 catches, 997 yards, and seven touchdowns on 128 targets. Not impressed? Let’s dive a bit deeper.
According to ESPN, Aiyuk finished as the 35th wide receiver, scoring 184.5 fantasy football points. While on paper that is a WR3, keep in mind, he missed four games. To get a better understanding of these numbers, we need to break them down more. On a per-game basis, Aiyuk averaged 15.4 points. This ranked 18th, which is a very strong wide receiver two. He was ahead of guys like Robert Woods and Amari Cooper, who both played all 16 games. He was right behind guys like Mike Evans and Brandin Cooks. Clearly, Aiyuk is in some good company after only one year in the league.
The Situation
Some may argue that Aiyuk only carved out that role and produced those numbers due to the injuries that plagued the San Francisco 49ers. I tend to disagree. Sure, it benefitted him that he saw the field more, but once he got his opportunity, the team wanted him out there. This is evident by him averaging 87% of snaps in his 12 games played. He was averaging a higher snap percentage than elite wide receivers like Allen Robinson, Tyreek Hill, and Davante Adams.
It was no surprise that Aiyuk’s game translated over into the NFL. Not only did he have the draft capital, but, according to PlayerProfiler, he found himself in the 82nd percentile for college dominator (40.6%), 87th percentile for college yards per reception (18.3), and the 88th percentile for college target share (29.1%). While these metrics do not paint the whole picture, they are typically a good indicator of future success.
With a year under his belt and a better understanding of the playbook and the game at its highest level, Aiyuk is ready to soar. The 49ers drafted Trey Lance with the third overall pick in this year’s draft. Whether he is the starting quarterback for this season is yet to be seen, however, this will only enhance Aiyuk’s play.
The 49ers ranked 12th in the league in passing yards last year. This figure bodes well for the receivers on this team. However, they ranked 19th in passing touchdowns. This low number could stem from the fact the 49ers had to start three different quarterbacks, which included Nick Mullens (8), Jimmy Garoppolo (6), and C.J. Beathard (2). This number will surely only go up whether it is all Garoppolo or Lance. In either case, they are both preferable options to Mullens and Beathard.
In addition, the 49ers ranked eighth in the league in red-zone percentage with a 67.3% rate of converting their red zone attempts into touchdowns. Why is this significant? Brandon Aiyuk recorded seven broken tackles on receptions. This is good for top-10 in the league among wide receivers. All the 49ers need to do is put the ball in Aiyuk’s hands and good things will come. He can be a true red-zone threat just by his ability to break tackles and find the endzone.
With young wide receivers making more of an impact in the NFL, Aiyuk finds himself in the perfect situation to dominate the fantasy football world. A successful rookie year, great college metrics, and better quarterback play coming, do not miss the boat on this talented star in the making.
