The tight end position is, in my opinion, one of the most interesting aspects of fantasy football. With a lone spot on most rosters, the top few options like Travis Kelce or Darren Waller are league winners thanks to the massive positional advantage they offer. But after they’re taken, the TE landscape becomes a barren wasteland of uncertainty.
It’s an increasingly popular strategy in fantasy drafts to ignore the position entirely if you fail to get a top-tier TE. The ADP gap between T.J. Hockenson and the next best option, Logan Thomas, is nearly three rounds. Because of this, a lot of managers have found success by waiting until one of their final picks to grab a TE, and then streaming the position week-to-week. But there’s another solution for your TE woes this season. His name is Irv Smith Jr.
Player Profile
At 6’2”, 240 lbs, Irv Smith is one of the most athletic TEs in the league. He hasn’t had consistent opportunities in his first two years with the Vikings, but is becoming a popular late-round flier now that Kyle Rudolph has left for the Giants. The 2019 2nd round pick has officially seized the starting job and won’t be letting go anytime soon.
With Tyler Conklin serving as the only other noteworthy TE on the Vikings’ roster, I expect Smith to inherit most of Rudolph’s 37 vacated targets. He was the fantasy TE22 last season on just 43 total targets, but skyrocketed up to the TE4 in the four weeks that Rudolph missed.
It’s likely that Smith will be the 3rd passing option on this great offense behind Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen. With the threat of Dalvin Cook out of the backfield, Smith could benefit greatly from opposing defenses having their attention diverted elsewhere.
Red Zone Opportunities
Smith’s fantasy football success will likely hinge on his red zone usage. The Vikings had the 6th best red zone offense in 2020, scoring TDs on 71% of their red zone drives. Cook and Thielen account for a huge portion of that work, receiving 66 and 21 red zone opportunities, respectively; while Jefferson and Smith both saw only 12. The projected increase in Smith’s target share, coupled with Thielen likely regressing from his insane 14 TD season; there is a significant opening for Smith to make a name for himself.
The final red zone split comes down to decisions made by head coach Mike Zimmer and QB Kirk Cousins; but Smith has already given them reason to look his way. He had the 8th highest passer rating when targeted among all receivers in 2020 (134.4). This was the best on the Vikings and barely below the likes of superstar Davante Adams (136). He’s also been having a very strong training camp in both blocking and receiving, according to reports.
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ADP Comparisons
I’m not here to tell you that Smith will be a top-5 TE in fantasy football this season, but the value he holds at his current price is unmatched. He probably can’t be labeled as a sleeper anymore but he’s still going in drafts as the TE13-15, in the 11th or 12th round. There’s no way that he doesn’t outperform those expectations.
Smith is regularly drafted after guys like Mike Gesicki, Evan Engram, and Hunter Henry, all of which belong to more crowded and worse overall offenses. Grab Smith in the 12th and never look back.
Damn unlucky that this guy got injured