What is a Breakout?
The term breakout is used often in the fantasy football community, but everyone has a different meaning for it. Most people tend to use one of two definitions, or what I like to call stages. Stage one: relevance; and stage two: elite.
The man of the hour, Michael Pittman, hit stage one this past season. He surpassed 1,000 receiving yards, but the real eye-catcher were his 129 targets. Proving to be a perennial WR1 in just his sophomore year, he is now playing with the best quarterback of his short career.
Matt Ryan supported elite wide receivers for the majority of his career in Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley. It’s safe to say the volume will be there for Pittman, but how can he reach stage two of the breakout? Let’s take a look at some of the history between Matt Ryan and his number one receiver, so we can better project Pittman into stardom.
Matty Ice
Matt Ryan has been the epitome of consistency at the quarterback position. He eclipsed the 4,000 yard mark each season from 2011-2020. He missed the target by 32 yards in 2021. Ryan’s MVP season in 2018 led to over 4,900 passing yards and 35 touchdowns. These remarks let Julio Jones continue his reign with a WR4 finish in PPR leagues.
Julio was peppered with 170 targets, equaling 1,677 yards on the year (this wasn’t his best year, either). I said it earlier and I’ll say it again; from a volume perspective, Michael Pittman will be as safe as they get. Let’s talk about the one issue being brought up by experts: touchdowns.
History Lesson
Matt Ryan and Julio Jones always had one problem that would nag fantasy football players. They didn’t score touchdowns. Jones only hit double digit touchdowns once in his career, which was his stage one breakout. This also occurred in his sophomore year. Jones reached stage two in 2014 when he started to average 150 targets per game. He reached WR6 on the year and only scored six touchdowns.
Matt Ryan threw for less than 30 touchdowns the same year Julio Jones reached the elite breakout stage. Ryan has only thrown for over 30 touchdowns three times in his career. For whatever the reason may be, throwing a substantial amount of touchdowns isn’t in Ryan’s game. His precision passing leads his team down the field, and that will work wonders in a run-first offense.
Michael Pittman Projections
Since the history lesson is finally over, and it was needed to clarify the final outcome, we can view how this affects Michael Pittman coming into year three. Pittman showed us he can sustain a full season on high volume. Matt Ryan loves feeding his WR1 with 10 targets per game. Michael Pittman has the opportunity to reach 150 or more targets this year.
Michael Pittman Jr. this season:
🔹 76 targets
🔹 1 drop pic.twitter.com/CnO0fmXV7w— PFF (@PFF) November 27, 2021
As far as yardage goes, it comes along with the targets. Pittman averages 8.3 yards per target, so the safe bet would be to clock him at 1,200 yards. Pittman already has a high floor with the incoming targets, so let’s bump that number up a bit. I have a hunch a 1,300 yard season is coming for Pittman. The tricky part is touchdowns. We saw Julio Jones produce elite fantasy finishes with little touchdowns for half of his career with Matt Ryan. Is Pittman the next coming of Jones? Maybe not. But a fair argument is Pittman doesn’t need 10 touchdowns to be relevant. Let’s make a final prediction and sum up the fantasy points to see where he would rank in the 2021 season.
Finishing Move
160 targets 105 receptions 1,331 yards 5 touchdowns.
With the projected stat line above, Michael Pittman would finish with 268.1 fantasy points. This finish would place him at WR9, ahead of Mike Evans. That is good company to be around. With this final projection, let’s remember the targets, receptions, and yards are almost to be expected. If you were to deviate from those numbers, it would be to raise them. It is very possible Pittman’s floor is right at or below those numbers. The real concern is the touchdowns. If they’re low, you can still look forward to a top-12 year. If they are higher (and let’s be real for a moment… who else is Matt Ryan throwing the ball to. Parris Campbell? No thanks.) Pittman can be a true top-six option at the position.
With a realistic floor and WR1 upside, Pittman is primed and ready to become elite this year. Draft him with confidence.
