The 2023 NFL Draft was full of surprises. We saw running back committees formed through thin air, first round wide receivers going to crowded wide receiver rooms, and tight ends galore on Day 2. Now that the dust has settled, it’s time to start looking at players to buy low in fantasy football. It’s early, and with that comes risk; but if you can reap the rewards, they could be league-deciding.
For this exercise, all buy low players will be below the 100 ADP threshold based on DLF football’s ADP database. With that said, let’s get into it.
James Conner, RB – Arizona Cardinals
One of the silent winners of the NFL draft was running back James Conner. The Arizona Cardinals were busy on draft night, but they avoided adding a running back. Despite surviving the draft, Conner’s dynasty value is actually going down.
I’ve been hyping James Conner up as a buy low prior to the start of free agency, and I’m still on the train post-draft.
Kyler Murray is unlikely to play at the beginning of the year. That means Conner is going to be heavily relied upon. No, he isn’t a sexy pick by any means. Last season, Conner had the 8th-lowest breakaway percentage among running backs, per PFF (min. 100 rush attempts). His longest run of the year came at 23 yards, which was tied for last place. To top it off, Conner faced 8+ defenders in the box at the 9th-lowest rate last season. I know, a very convincing buy low target, right?
Despite those uninspiring numbers, there’s a reason Conner is a buy low for fantasy football.
James Conner had a slow start to the season, sitting at RB30 in PPR leagues from Weeks 1-5. Then, Conner missed the following three games due to injury. He didn’t settle, however, and picked up the pace upon his return from injury. From Week 9-17, Conner was the RB4 in PPR leagues. No, that wasn’t a typo. James Conner was a League Winner for many managers last season.
James Conner is reliable where it matters. He keeps the chains moving and is an incredible blocker. Despite some misconceptions, these things matter for fantasy football (and especially in the NFL) because they provide longevity at the position.
Conner was second (only behind Samaje Perine) in pass-blocking efficiency among running backs, per PFF (min. 100 pass-block snaps). He was 18th in rushing first downs, despite being 31st in total carries.
Conner’s likely to be used more around the goal line this upcoming season, and should be an anchor to whoever plays quarterback for Arizona until Kyler Murray returns. At the moment, Conner can be had for a late ’23 2nd. With this draft class being considered one more of depth than superstar talent, this is a risk worth taking.
Antonio Gibson, RB – Washington Commanders
To be honest, most fantasy football analysts should be viewing Antonio Gibson in the same breath as D’Andre Swift. Instead, Gibson is a buy low target and Swift is a sell high candidate based on their current cost and ADP.
Gibson started his career hot, finishing as the RB13 & RB12 in his first two seasons. Since then, he’s cooled down. Between the team drafting Brian Robinson and questionable coaching, Gibson saw a dip in production in 2022 – finishing as the RB27 in PPR leagues. Gibson’s rushing metrics also took a hit, but he shined as a receiver – which makes sense when you remember that Gibson was a wide receiver in college and not a running back. Despite that, I think the future could be bright for Gibson going forward.
The Washington Commanders drafted Gibson for his versatility, but rarely used it. That (along with plenty of other reasons) is why the team moved on from offensive coordinator Scott Turner. Replacing Turner is former Kansas City Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy. Considering the Chiefs’ usage of pass-catching backs, it’s hard not to get excited about Gibson’s fantasy football outlook – which leads us to the next reason.
This offseason the Commanders released J.D. McKissic, their primary third-down running back. Considering Brian Robinson’s struggles as a pass-catcher and blocker, this role should exclusively be Gibson’s to lose. Gibson is an incredible pass-blocking RB, finishing with the highest pass-blocking grade among all running backs last year, per PFF (min. 50 snaps).
Regardless of Gibson’s usage as a pure running back, he should have a safe floor (RB3) as a receiver. The upside is RB1 territory, especially if Washington can improve on their 10th-lowest pass-rate rank last season.
Gibson is being valued as a RB4 in dynasty leagues, and can be traded for a ’23 3rd round pick. At that cost, I’m taking the risk on Gibson and hoping he hits his ceiling under a new quarterback and offensive coordinator.
Allen Lazard, WR – New York Jets
I’ve had Allen Lazard as a New York Jets target since the beginning of the offseason. With Aaron Rodgers joining him in New York, I’m looking at Lazard as a buy low candidate in fantasy football.
I get it. Lazard isn’t a sexy name, nor does he have an elite ceiling. But at the moment, he’s an incredible value for fantasy.
After being rumored to take a wide receiver in the NFL draft, the Jets did not – opting to fortify the trenches instead.
We know how much Aaron Rodgers values familiarity between himself and his pass-catchers. Lazard will be a trusted target of Rodgers on an offense that doesn’t have much talent at WR outside of Garrett Wilson. And, unlike his time in Green Bay, Lazard won’t be a focal point for opposing defenses.
Getting right to it. @AaronRodgers12 ✈️ @AllenLazard pic.twitter.com/PxJ9NwpNgP
— New York Jets (@nyjets) April 27, 2023
Lazard will also be reuniting with Nathaniel Hackett, adding another layer of confidence that should be instilled in the 27-year old.
Lazard has the potential to be a rare outlier that sees him outperform his first five seasons in the league. After all, last year was his best season to date.
At the moment, Lazard can be had for a ’23 3rd round pick. If you can’t get a 3rd for him, it’s worth trading other perceived low-ceiling players for Lazard. I’m expecting Lazard to have WR2 upside for as long as Rodgers is in New York.
Juwan Johnson, TE – New Orleans Saints
Another silent winner of the draft (yet still seeing his value fall), Juwan Johnson is one of my favorite buy low targets at the position. I had Johnson as a winner after the free agency period, and he looks even better for fantasy football post-draft.
The New Orleans Saints decided to forego selecting a tight end during the NFL draft. To top it off, on Day 3 of the draft, the Saints traded Adam Trautman to the Denver Broncos. Trautman saw the second-most snaps at tight end last year for the Saints. His departure will allow Johnson to take over the lion’s share of the work.
Johnson was a pleasant surprise in fantasy football last year. He finished as the TE15, but had five top-10 finishes at the position. He did this while averaging only 65% of offensive snaps. To put that in perspective, only Gerald Everett (and Taysom Hill) had a lower snap percentage among top-15 tight ends last season. More opportunity will lead to more production.
Johnson received a two-year $12M contract this offseason and is now paired with Derek Carr, who we’ve seen help Darren Waller finish as the TE2 & TE3 quite literally out of nowhere. Juwan can have the ceiling of a top-3 tight end, but more likely than not, settles himself comfortably inside TE1 territory.
Johnson can currently be had for a ’23 3rd round pick. He’s also only 26 years old. Tight ends normally take a bit longer to develop than other positions, but it seems like Johnson is about to hit his stride. For the cost of a 3rd, I’m buying on the upside of Johnson going forward.
