DJ Moore and the Bears offense are bad, but we’ve seen this before.
I want to start this by saying I don’t believe DJ Moore is a bad player, but the Chicago Bears are an awful team. They are a bottom-five offense in points per game, passing yards per game, and total yards per game (PPG, PYPG, TYPG). Now, where have we seen this before? Oh right, the 2021 and 2021 Carolina Panthers! DJ Moore went through the wringer in Carolina and still emerged as a fantasy WR2 each year besides his rookie year. Let’s take a look at how he did, why he can do it again, and, ultimately, why you should buy low on DJ Moore in fantasy football.
Carolina Panther Years
First Round Bust?
2018
DJ Moore came into the league in 2018 as a first-round draft pick for the Carolina Panthers. With Devin Funchess (remember him?) as Cam Newton’s WR1, Moore stepped right into the alpha role for this team. Little did he know, Newton was on his last legs and was quickly phased out of the NFL due to injury. With that being said, DJ Moore was by far the most productive receiver on this team.
2019
As the years went on, Moore found his footing, but never truly became the pure alpha wide receiver you look for in the first round of the NFL Draft. He had his best fantasy finish to date, placing as the WR16 in PPR leagues. It was fairly impressive, seeming he had a rotation of Kyle Allen, Cam Newton, and Will Grier as his starting quarterbacks throughout the year. Teddy Bridgewater stepped in during the 202 season, and opportunities took a turn for the worse.
2020
2020 took a toll on the Panthers offense, as they were trending downward in all areas of football. DJ Moore made it into the top 24 wide receivers, however, by being uber-efficient. He averaged 18.1 yards per catch (YPC), and a career-high 10.1 yards per target (YPT). He ended that year with his current career high in total yards.
How it came crashing down
2021
The Panthers team was running out of time, and resources. Their star running back Christian McCaffrey just missed 13 games in 2020, and subsequently missed half the year in 2021; DJ Moore also had his contract expiration creeping behind him. It was time for the Panthers to make some tough decisions. What made this scenario even worse, the Panthers turned out to be a bottom-four offense in the entire league. They were the fourth worst in PPG and PYPG, and third worst in TYPG. They were a dumpster fire of a team, that relied on the ghost of Cam Newton, Ghost-seer Sam Darnold, and former XFL QB PJ Walker. All expectations went out the window, but there was a light at the end of the tunnel.
DJ Moore had a whopping 27.3% target share, equaling 163 targets on the year. He wildly outperformed what was given to him as well, averaging a career-low 7.1 YPT, but tallying up 426 yards after the catch to average 12.4 YPC. Moore earned himself a 3-year, $ 61.8 million contract.
2022
Excluding his rookie season, this was Moore’s worst fantasy performance to date. He was a back-end WR2, but not because of his yardage receptions, or even opportunities. He simply was viable, due to him breaking his mould and aggregating seven touchdowns on the year. The Panthers were once again a bottom-five offense and were looking to new adventures, without DJ Moore. Moore was traded to the Chicago Bears in the move that allowed the Panthers to draft Bryce Young.
Why Buy Now?
Redraft
The Bears have looked putrid; Justin Fields has seemingly regressed as a passer, and all the skill players are having trouble getting open. But, why am I not worried? When you add context to the passing offense, it becomes a bit more clear. After three weeks, the Bears have faced two top-10 pass defenses, one in which DJ Moore was able to find the endzone. In the other game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Moore took advantage and turned in a 16-point performance. To preface my next statement, I don’t expect DJ Moore to become an elite fantasy option going forward. I do, however, expect him to be more reliable and consistent, as the rest of the season schedule proves worthy.
Here’s the DJ Moore catch. #Bears pic.twitter.com/CUyZOp1EmJ
— ImBearingDown (@ImBearingDown) September 24, 2023
Here are their matchups for the rest of the season, including the fantasy playoffs:
- Week 4: Denver Broncos (29th Pass Def.)
- Week 5: Washington Commanders (13th Pass Def.)
- Week 6: Minnesota Vikings (25th Pass Def.)
- Week 7: Las Vegas Raiders (16th Pass Def.)
- Week 8: Los Angeles Chargers (32nd Pass Def.)
- Week 9: New Orleans Saints (8th Pass Def.)
- Week 10: Carolina Panthers (9th Pass Def.)
- Week 11: Detroit Lions (15th Pass Def.)
- Week 12: Minnesota Vikings (25th Pass Def.)
- Week 14: Detroit Lions (15th Pass Def.)
- Week 15: Cleveland Browns (1st Pass Def.)
- Week 16: Arizona Cardinals (21st Pass Def.)
- Week 17: Atlanta Falcons (4th Pass Def.)
Out of the next 13 matchups, only four are against the top 12 pass defenses. As a caveat, two of those four are in playoff weeks, so be sure to have another option ready, or sell him high right before your trade deadline. As a highlight, five of these matchups are against bottom-12 pass defenses, one being against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 16 of the playoffs. I recommend DJ Moore to be in all lineups every week, besides the following: Weeks 8, 9, 15, and 17.
Dynasty
I will admit, the dynasty outlook needs to be stretched out to make it viable. Mainly because dynasty managers may have a harder time moving assets for DJ Moore. To ease the anxiety, outside the aforementioned 2023 schedule, the Bears have hope long term too. There are two main scenarios to point out:
- Scenario 1: Justin Fields is terrible, and the Bears draft a better quarterback in 2024.
- Scenario 2: Fields turns it around, and makes the case for him to stay
Scenario one
In scenario one I firmly believe, even if this is the case, my redraft analysis holds. It becomes hard to be as bad as the Bears were over the first three weeks, over a year. With plus matchups in the majority of games, Moore should continue to see good volume and verse easier cornerbacks. What makes this prediction difficult, is the test of bringing in a rookie quarterback. Field’s passing ability is not what we hoped it to be, but how can we be so sure the new guy will be better?
Using ESPN as the home for these stats, Justin Fields was a one-read passer at Ohio State. Never throwing for more than 354 pass attempts, Fields floated from completing 67-70% of passes. Fields had promise, but never had the volume to prove if he was capable of being an NFL signal caller. He currently struggles through his progressions and plenty of clips have surfaced on social media of him missing wide-open receivers. Fields also had an other-worldly supporting cast, featuring Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, and Marvin Harrison Jr. I don’t want to use that against him, but I keep telling myself, “Maybe there was a reason they never let him truly let the ball fly”. That last thought is more anecdotal, as I have no evidence to back it up.
Same #Bears playcall (Shallow Cross), same open receiver in traffic (Kmet).
Rookie Fields: Navigates the pocket, laces a completion. 1st down.
Year 3 Fields: Navigates the pocket, turns down Kmet, checkdown. 3rd & 7 (conversion fails). pic.twitter.com/RjRj6j0Xmx
— Robert Schmitz (@robertkschmitz) September 17, 2023
Without spending too much time on college prospects, Caleb Williams and Drake Maye are the two names to look out for as the Bears project to have two top-5 picks in the NFL Draft as of this moment. Both of them are pure passers, both having seasons of over 500 pass attempts, 4,000 yards, and 35 touchdown passes. In the case of scenario one, I would be ecstatic for DJ Moore if one of those two came in as the franchise QB. He is a long-term buy or hold for me right now, but could even be a cheap contending buy to fill a flex spot.
Scenario Two
This is the hypothetical that is simpler to explain, but the one most believe less likely to happen. Fields need to be given a simple offense. He should be making one, maybe two reads, and if nothing works, he turns on the jets. The biggest problem is this remains unstable. It doesn’t let Fields develop properly. The Bears had this offence implemented in year one, but instead of slightly evolving it in year two, it remained the same. Now the offense feels as if they’re asking him to take this huge jump in passing prowess. The Bears staff should have been moulding him gradually throughout his career.
The hope here is to revert to the one-read offense and see if they can evolve throughout a season, instead of multiple years. The easy schedule allows for this to happen, and in the universe, it does happen, Fields continues to build chemistry with DJ Moore. DJ Moore is a semi-alpha wide receiver who has proven to be QB-proof his entire career, and I don’t think this will crumble starting now. If my redraft analysis proves to be right over time, scenario two holds more weight than projected.
I’m currently sending out deals for DJ Moore as I write this, follow me on Twitter @YekimGames to see if I’m able to put my money where my mouth is.
