Fantasy Football: Buy, Sell, and Hold – First Time Movers – QB and RB Edition

Have we ever seen an offseason with this much movement? It’s been exciting; with big names being traded and interesting free agent signings. Yes, I am looking at you, Christian Kirk. It’s been interesting to see the impact of all the movements on the fantasy football dynasty scene. Many players are on the move for the first time, while others have packed their bags multiple times. 

I figured it would be fun to take a look at the dynasty value of players on the move for the first time. This week it’ll be the quarterbacks and running backs. What kind of situation are these guys walking into? Should we be buying, selling or holding these guys as they adjust to a new team?

Russell Wilson – Denver Broncos – Hold

Currently QB9 on KTC, valued around an early 2023 1st. 

If the Broncos actually allow Russ to cook, then I can see him upping his value. Nathaniel Hackett is coming over from the Packers system which produced back-to-back MVP seasons for Aaron Rodgers. 

Wilson has a great run game to support him and one of the deepest WR groups to target. It would not surprise me to see Wilson finish the year as the QB1 in fantasy football. He also has the rushing upside to help boost his numbers. 

The downside is of course his age. He will be turning 34 halfway through the year. However, with his name and previous accomplishments, his value shouldn’t decrease too much – even with an average season. Even if he “disappoints,” you will be able to sell him for a first next offseason. Hold him and see if he lights it up. 

Matt Ryan – Indianapolis Colts – Buy

Currently QB26 on KTC, valued around a late 2023 2nd. 

He is going from playing behind one of the worst offensive lines, to arguably the best. If he can stay upright, Ryan can still make the throws needed to succeed in fantasy football. 

He has one of the best running backs in the league to take pressure off of him. Not only that, he has one of the best checkdown options as well. 

If you are looking for a safe second option in fantasy football superflex leagues, look no further than Matt Ryan. He has low-end QB1 upside, but will likely finish as a high-end QB2. With two years left on his contract, you know you are covered for a couple of years. If he doesn’t work out for you, you can sell him next offseason for a similar price. 

Baker Mayfield – Carolina Panthers – Buy

Currently QB 28 on KTC, valued around a late 2023 2nd. 

This will be published a couple of days post-trade, so his value could rise a bit. Many around the Twitter world have him moving up to around the fantasy football QB25, so don’t expect a huge value increase. 

Why buy? You are getting a safe QB2, with some lowend QB-1 upside, for a shot in the dark. He played most of last year hurt and finished as the QB25. That was his worst since coming into the league in 2018. Prior to that he had finishes between QB14-19 in his first three years.

Sam Darnold was the QB5 for the first four weeks last year, averaging 24.44 points per game. Teddy Bridgwater finished 2020 as the QB19, averaging 16.82 points per game. There is some hope for a QB in this offense. Maybe Mayfield is the answer. 

The Panthers have solid pieces to target and a run game to take the pressure off of him. However, their offensive line is terrible, hopefully they can keep Mayfield upright.

Deshuan Watson – Cleveland Browns – Hold

Currently QB18 on KTC, valued around a late 2023 1st. 

No one really knows what to do here. There is no denying when we last saw him play he was a top 5 QB in fantasy football. Is he getting a year suspension? Will there be more women that come forward? What about the last four unresolved cases? Still many unanswered questions, but it seems like we are getting closer to those answers. 

If you want out, I don’t blame you. However, I would recommend waiting to see what happens with the suspension. I’d say most are expecting a year, so that would already be baked into his value already, but if it ends up being less you can sell for much more. 

Ronald Jones – Kansas City Chiefs – Buy

Currently RB51 on KTC, valued around an early 2023 3rd. 

He finally gets out of Bruce Arians doghouse. Now, can he put that into the rearview mirror and live up to his early second round draft capital? 

With CEH and Mckinnon still around, there isn’t much PPR upside. However, Jones has a chance to win the early down role, plus the goal line work in a Mahomes run offense. If that happens, Jones will destroy his current value. He was one of the most efficient runners between the tackles last year according to Next Gen Stats. 

This is anyone’s backfield. It could be a messy committee, but at his price he’s worth the risk to grab a piece of this offense. I could see him at least repeating his 2020 season, where he had nearly 1000 yards on the ground and 7 TDs. There is potential for more TDs as this team moves on without Tyreek Hill near the goal line. 

Marlon Mack – Houston Texans – Sell

Currently RB59 on KTC, valued around a late 2023 3rd.

Speaking of a messy backfield, is there anything worse than what the Texans have? Rex Burkhead and Mack were paid decently, Dameon Pierce was drafted in the 4th, and then Dare Ogunbowale was given a two year contract. On top of that they brought back Royce Freeman. 

There is a chance Marlon Mack leads this backfield, but what is the upside? He is now two years removed from his achilles tear, but only played in six games last year. Burkhead and Ogunbowale are receiving backs, so there is no PPR upside in an offense that will be playing from behind a lot. 

Honestly, the only hope for fantasy relevance is if he gets traded before the season starts. If you can get anything for him or use him as a throw in piece for an upgrade, do it. At his age and that injury still lingering in the background his value will never rise. 

Chase Edmonds – Miami Dolphins – Buy

Currently RB42 on KTC, valued around a late 2023 2nd. 

He is another RB in a busy backfield, but he has a clear role and was paid well.

Raheem Mostert and Sony Michel were brought in for pennies on one year deals. Edmonds was given a two year deal worth $12 million. Over the last few years, Edmonds wasn’t used often between the tackles or near the GL, but he gets the job down in the passing game. 

He was the fantasy football RB20 through the first eight weeks last year. He averaged 10.2 points per game before his injury. Edmonds was only given 9 carries inside the redzone during that span, which resulted in one TD. Averaging 10.2 points (.5 PPR) with only one TD is impressive. 

I don’t expect Edmonds to take over this backfield. Michel and Mostert will get their carries. However, Edmonds has shown he can be effective on limited touches. Edmonds will find the endzone more often now that he is a six million dollar man. 

I wrote about Michel being one of my favourite cheap buys a couple weeks ago, I still believe that. However, I’ll admit I didn’t realize how cheap Edmonds was. Edmonds’ role makes him a safe flex play with the potential to be a high end RB2 in fantasy fooball PPR leagues. I expect if he has a similar start to the 2022 season as last year his value will rise.

Darrel Williams – Arizona Cardinals – Buy

Currently RB63 on KTC, valued around a late 2023 3rd. 

I wrote about him a few weeks ago as a cheap buy for contending teams. The potential in this offense is too great.

His pass-catching ability allows him to slide into Chase Edmonds role from last year. That has its own stand alone value, as Edmonds was the RB20 in Half-PPR leagues before his injury in Week 9. 

He is also playing behind James Connor, who has a bit of an injury history. We all saw what Connor did once Edmonds went down last year. From Week 9 on he was the RB3 averaging 21.4 points per game. If Conner goes down at any point Williams can take on the full workload.