Sam Darnold was drafted three overall in the 2018 NFL Draft by the New York Jets. He was drafted to be great – until Adam Gase arrived. The curse of Adam Gase has been bestowed upon many NFL players and some big names have turned it around. Kenyan Drake, Robby Anderson, and Ryan Tannehill are three guys who’s careers excelled after the Gase era. Will this be the same for Sam Darnold? And how will the Panthers look now in 2021 for fantasy football purposes? Let’s dive in.
Offensive Line Struggles
Sam Darnold has had to deal with horrific offensive line play for most of his career. According to Pro Football Focus, the Panthers have the 30th ranked offensive line. The only surefire linemen is right tackle Taylor Moton. Unless some of their fresh faces can have borderline elite play, Darnold may be running for his life once again.
Weapons Galore
The key difference to Darnold’s success will be his newfound arsenal of skill position players. The one we all know is Christian McCaffrey. CMC has been one of the best running backs in fantasy football since his rookie year. Sam Darnold only threw the ball to the running back position about 18% of the time. McCaffrey averages about a 22% target share.
In the first year under Joe Brady and Matt Rhule’s offense, CMC was on pace for 101 targets instead of his usual 125+. Yes it was a small sample size, but the running back work took a very small step backwards; and I believe that fits well with Darnold’s style of play. This offseason, the coaching staff mentioned that McCaffrey will be the safety net for Darnold on every play. CMC’s range of outcomes is anywhere from RB1 to RB3. I am not worried about him at all.
Pass Catchers
D.J. Moore has become more of a deep threat than people realize. His aDOT has increased by 2.1 yards every year. The problem with Moore is his inability to score touchdowns and his catch percentage. Moore’s career high for touchdowns was four; which he accomplished last year and 2019. His catch percentage has decreased every year of his career, while his drops have increased.
Sam Darnold struggles with accuracy, unlike last year’s QB, Teddy Bridgewater. Darnold has a career completion percentage of 59.8 compared to Teddy’s 69.1 (Darnold was actually below his average in 2020 while Bridgewater matched his). In order for Moore to be more relevant, Darnold is going to have to hit him down the field. But Darnold has a 27% completion rate on deep balls. Moore is being drafted as the WR18 right now and if I had to choose between him or his competitor Robby Anderson, I would go with the latter.
Robby Anderson “broke out” last year; having career-highs in targets, receptions, yards, catch percentage and YAC. This is all while having a career-low in yards per reception and aDOT. Anderson has become more of a first down guy (converting 49 in 2020) rather than a deep threat like he was in New York. Anderson and Darnold also played on the Jets together for two years, so hopefully there is some leftover chemistry there. Anderson also just signed a two-year extension, keeping him in Carolina for the time being.
A quick note about new Panther’s tight end Dan Arnold. The Panthers paid him $6,000,000 to catch passes, as he is not known for his blocking. He could be a very deep sleeper in fantasy football leagues, but I do not view him as anything more than a matchup-based stream at his position. Look for him on your waiver wire throughout the year. Darnold to D. Arnold may not be everything we hope for.
Rookie Rumble
With Curtis Samuel heading to Washington, in comes rookie Terrace Marshall Jr. People forget about Marshall because he played third fiddle to rookie Ja’Marr Chase and Sophomore star Justin Jefferson at LSU. Marshall scored 23 touchdowns in his last two years at LSU and was even nicknamed ‘Touchdown Terrace’.
Terrace Marshall with the 59-yard catch and run 👀
pic.twitter.com/cYdVVlgnai— PFF (@PFF) August 15, 2021
Marshall has flashed during camp, earning praise from former Panthers wide receiver, Steve Smith. Head coach Matt Rhule also stressed the fact that the staff in Carolina is doing everything they can to get Terrace up to speed as quickly as possible. This has shown during the preseason, as Marshall’s secured six catches for 138 yards so far. Stash Marshall in dynasty leagues and check your waiver wire early in the year for Terrace Marshall Jr.
Conclusion
There are plenty of pass-catchers in Carolina, but only so many targets to be caught. Look for CMC, DJ, and Robby to lead the way as far as fantasy football relevance goes. Keep your eye on Terrace Marshall for a potential breakout, even though I would look towards year two for that to happen. Dan Arnold is a matchup-based stream at the tight end position.
Most importantly, my eye is on Sam Darnold. If these players have fantasy relevant years he is a large reason why; and should be looked at in all formats. Darnold and friends are looking to make an impact in year one in Carolina.
