Is there a Perfect Dynasty Strategy?
Have you ever wondered what the best strategy is when participating in a fantasy football dynasty startup draft? There are so many that the thought of picking one strategy can be overwhelming. Should I go Zero-RB/WR? How about Robust RB? The Win-Now approach, or how about the infamous Productive Struggle? I’m going to give you a rundown of my favorite strategy in dynasty.
Like many of you, I started playing fantasy football in redraft leagues with my friends and family. I had no idea what a Superflex was. I started playing in middle school and took the “coolest” players at the time. It led to rollercoaster seasons for me, as I had no idea about ADP, or player values. It was all gut based on the most popular players of the day. I wanted all the big-time players on my teams. I had no strategy at all, I just wanted Marshall Faulk, Randy Moss, Daunte Culpepper, and the hometown legend Shaun Alexander.
The Awakening
Then, one year at a local grocery store I noticed a fantasy football magazine in the aisle. I had no idea these existed. All I knew was that I had to buy it. It was the infamous Fantasy Football Index Magazine!
I would imagine anyone who played in the early years of fantasy football knows the magazine. They had mock drafts, player ratings, and stat projections for every player in the league. It was as if I had hit the fantasy football jackpot. I was beyond thrilled. I took that magazine home and studied it from front to back in preparation for the upcoming fantasy season.
It was the best season of my short fantasy football career.
I had two leagues that year, and both made the playoffs; with one team winning the championship. From that moment on, coming in with a strategy was essential if I expected to be competitive in all my leagues. That run-in with the magazine at my local grocery store changed how I view fantasy football.
My longest-running home league decided to take the plunge and transition from a keeper league to dynasty. It was the best decision that this league has ever made. My mind instantly started thinking of ways for me to make a superteam. You are telling me I can trade startup picks along with future rookie picks? To say I was excited would be a massive underestimation.
Simply the Best
I started browsing Twitter last summer looking for some popular dynasty strategies, as I had no experience with the format. I wanted to make sure I had some sort of a plan going into the draft, and I found one approach that continued to be mentioned. It was called, “The Productive Struggle”.
Here's a small clip of this week's guest @RyanMc23 talking about "Productive Struggle", his strategy for Dynasty startups
Check out the full episode here: https://t.co/9JDeSayH2z pic.twitter.com/XQPNQgDd4O
— The Undrafted (@TheUndraftedFF) March 6, 2021
A strategy coined by Ryan McDowell. It has become so popular that almost every dynasty startup will now feature a handful of teams going this route.
the basis of this strategy is focusing on long-term success while disregarding short-term success. What does it boil down to? You are targeting players and rookies pick that will accrue value over time
Depending on how you prefer to structure this team, you may end up fading running backs; as some productive struggles can turn into a never-ending rebuild. I’ve been down this path before, and It does not make sense to waste the prime of a running back on a team that is in a long-term rebuild.
A key aspect of the productive struggle is building team value. The easiest way to accomplish that is through rookies, and this upcoming rookie class is a prime candidate to test out the productive struggle.
Freedom
Thinking in terms of long-term value frees you up to splurge on youth, as you are not bothered by first-year results. Go ahead and trade down in your league’s startup, accumulating as many rookie picks as you can; allowing for more possibilities of hitting on selections. The goal should be to have young players develop on the roster while setting yourself up for the 1st pick in the rookie draft the following year.
Grabbing cornerstone players such as rookie quarterbacks and wide receivers allows you to build a base for years to come. It will be difficult for those players to lose value, due to the value the dynasty community places on age. Furthermore, if they are to struggle in the first or second year they will be held to high standards. These players are insulated and fit perfectly with this strategy.
It is a low-risk, high-reward strategy. by targeting players with high draft capital who are still in the first or second season and have not yet broken out. If they are to have a Top-24 season their value will only increase.
I’ve Got Receipts
Update on the #LOEG Productive struggle 👶🐐 team. I love the look of this team. Can’t wait to add depth via the 6 picks I have inside the top 24 pic.twitter.com/lr1kXd4LaE
— Jesse Moeller (@JMoeller05) April 4, 2021
Here is my Productive Struggle approach from the home dynasty league I mentioned earlier. As you can see, I went young with my roster construction and made numerous trades; building the draft capital that they currently possess. The one regret I have with this team was not fully investing in youth during the initial startup draft.
Something I hear on repeat by dynasty analysts was that being stuck in the middle is where dynasty teams go to perish. You can become cemented, as you are never a true contender or a bottom feeder.
This thought persisted for me in the first few weeks of the 2020 season. After week 5 I re-evaluated my team and was convinced it was stuck. At that moment I had to decide whether I would go all-in for the title in 2020, or completely punt and embrace the Productive Struggle.
I chose to invest in the Productive Struggle and I am delighted that I did. I was able to add four extra first-round picks while acquiring rising stars like Cam Akers, Tee Higgins, and Chase Claypool. It did cost me some big-name players in Nick Chubb, Terry McLaurin, and Amari Cooper, however.
To me, it was worth it, as the draft capital alone presented me the flexibility to maneuver my roster. My team now has 10 picks in the first two rounds for 2021 and 2022.
Enjoy the Ride
A key part of any successful dynasty roster is timing. I view it similarly to the stock market, as some players are sells, while some are buys at the value they occupy. A drastic example of this is Josh Jacobs.
Jacobs came into the 2020 season as a consensus Top-10 running back and saw his value slowly erode as the season wore on. The Raiders then decided to eviscerate his value by trading away offensive lineman and signing RB Kenyan Drake this off-season.
If you were to have sold Jacobs at midseason, you could have received a pretty penny for him. Currently, his dynasty value puts him around the Top-20 at the position.
[pickup_prop id=”6099″]
Those who were able to predict his downfall were rewarded nicely; and in theory, could have traded Jacobs, bought back in for a cheaper price after the Drake signing, and had some extra draft capital for your troubles.
10 of the 12 teams in my home league still had 2021 rookie picks in week 5; when I decided to tear down my roster. Making my move at that moment allowed me to take advantage of the market since I became the only buyer. It’s the same as using rookie fever to acquire veteran players for discounts with all eyes on those rookie picks.
If you take advantage of dips and peaks you can accumulate a massive amount of value in a given year. Dynasty is a game built for the productive struggle, that if performed correctly can turn you into a powerhouse.
Jesse Moeller
Jesse Moeller is a fascinating character. By day, he's a restaurant manager, but during his free time, he transforms into a fantasy football analyst. He's been playing fantasy football since 1999, which means he's been around the block a few times. But his passion for the game has never waned. Jesse is a devoted husband to his wife Andrea, whom he's been married to for five years. They have a lovely daughter Cecilia, who is now four years old. Jesse's journey into content creation began with The League Winners in 2021, and he hasn't looked back since. Dynasty is his passion, and his love for the game is infectious. Jesse is a true degenerate who loves the fantasy football and the community that supports it.