There’s been a lot of hype this fantasy football season that D’Andre Swift has the upside to return RB1 value in 2021. Let’s stop with the hype. Swift’s ADP now sits at ADP16. Folks, you are drafting Swift at his ceiling.
D’Andre Swift played in 13 games finishing with 46 receptions on 57 targets for 357 yards and two touchdowns. He also rushed 114 times for 521 yards and eight touchdowns. This led to an RB20 finish in 2020. It is safe to assume this is Swift’s floor in 2021, as he’s clearly entering the season as the Lions RB1. However, in 2021 Swift has almost zero upside outside of injuries mainly for two reasons: Anthony Lynn and Jamaal Williams.
Anthony Lynn’s & Jamaal Williams’s Impact
2017 was the last time Anthony Lynn-led offense gave a running back both over 200 attempts and over 60 targets. That was when Melvin Gordon had his magically season. Anthony Lynn already has said several times that Detriot will utilize a running back committee.
Lynn clearly prefers Jamaal Williams in the Melvin Gordon role, and D’Andre Swift in the Austin Ekeler role. Melvin Gordon finished RB8 in 2018 behind his 14 total touchdowns. In 2019, Austin Ekeler finished as RB4 on the back of his receiving chops; having 92 receptions for 993 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. Essentially, Swift needs to match Ekeler’s phenomenal receiving efficiency in 2019 to end up as RB1, and Jamaal Williams would have to play only 12 games in 2021 (as Gordon did in 2019).
“Jamaal is what I’d call a classic ‘A’ back,” Lynn told Chris Burke and Nick Baumgardner of The Athletic. “I like to break the backs down into ‘A’ and ‘B’. My ‘A’ backs are normally my bigger backs. They can run between the tackles, block probably a little better than a ‘B’ back, they can also run the perimeter. I can leave those guys in there for all three downs.”
Jamaal Williams is the reason the fantasy football community started the hashtag #FreeAaronJones. Jamaal Williams should be the goal line back in this offense, capping Swift’s touchdown upside.
.@jswaggdaddy powers it in for the score! 💪#CHIvsGB | #GoPackGo
📺 NBC
Watch live 📱 https://t.co/CwnQfSzZ7d pic.twitter.com/fkpoAfu7P1— Green Bay Packers (@packers) November 30, 2020
Williams will cap Swift’s rushing attempts based on Lynn’s designation above. Swift has the talent to match Ekeler’s 2019 receiving output, but do not forget that Jamaal Williams is not a bad receiver himself.
Even Rodgers was in disbelief after this TD pass 😯 @AaronRodgers12 @packers @jswaggdaddy pic.twitter.com/tW6bcbPims
— The Checkdown (@thecheckdown) July 11, 2020
2021 Fantasy Football Outlook
Is there a non-zero chance D’Andre Swift finishes in the top-12 running backs in 2021? YES. However, below is a list of things that need to occur for that percentage to be high:
- A Jamaal Williams injury
- D’Andre Swift’s receiving efficiency matches Austin Ekeler’s
- Jared Goff’s accuracy matches Philip Rivers’ accuracy
- Swift gets goal line opportunities (rushing and receiving) to log double-digit total touchdowns
- Detriot Lions to score often
Am I willing to bet on several of those things to occur for one player to perform and return his ADP value? Absolutely not.
Since Lynn has made it public that Jamaal Williams is the A-back and D’Andre Swift the B-back, the likely outcome is inconsistent week-to-week performances. Looking at Anthony Lynn’s offense from 2017-2019 (when both Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler player together), below is a table showing PPG.
It seems that the A-Back has both the higher floor and higher ceiling in this offense. Why take a chance on D’Andre Swift at his ADP37 when you can get the same production and upside with Jamaal Williams at ADP114?
There’s a small chance that Williams doesn’t smash his ADP as the RB40. Let your league mates draft Swift at ADP while you target Jamaal Williams who could yield similar production at a much lower cost.
