It’s that time of year again. Fantasy football draft season is in full swing. The time of year where the mock drafts full of us hardcore degenerates once again begin to fill with casual players. The time where the sharks and the fish seamlessly blend together. So with that in mind, here are 10 rules to keep you from being one of the fish in the pool.
Keep in mind, the majority of these rules I learned the hard way. Don’t beat yourself up if you’ve made the same errors. I still remember thinking how smart I was for taking a running back fifth overall when all my idiot league mates drafted QB’s. It turns out I was the idiot, and it was a super flex league. I drafted my first QB in the 9th round and got slaughtered. Lesson learned!
Before we get into the rules I would like to start with some parameters. These rules are for your run of the mill Half-PPR fantasy football leagues with rosters consisting of 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 DST and 1 Kicker. Any major changes from these baselines should be accounted for in these rules as they cant greatly change rankings.
Rule #1- Don’t draft a QB in the first 6 rounds
Being the first manager to draft a QB and scoring Mahomes or Allen sure seems awesome in the draft. But once you finish the draft and look at what you had to sacrifice, you will see it just wasn’t worth it.
QB finish is largely unpredictable. Sure, we can predict most of the top 10 QB’s. But the order that they finish in is largely random, therefore investing an early pick in a QB is a fools errand.
In 2021 the first 6 QB’s drafted by ADP were Mahomes, Allen, Murray, Jackson, Rodgers and Wilson. They finished 4th, 1st, 10th, 16th, 6th and 15th.
Conversely, the next six QB’s by ADP were Prescott, Herbert, Brady, Stafford, Tannehill and Hurts. They finished 8th, 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 13th and 11th.
As you can see, while you want to get a top 12 QB, drafting one of the 7-12 QB’s off the board is just as likely to land you a solid starter as drafting the 1-6 QB’s drafted at ADP.
So load up on high-end receivers and running backs early. Take a mid draft shot on a Brady or whichever QB falls to you.
Rule #2- Tight End Great or Late (The Aizerplan)
Tight end has some of the same randomness as quarterback in fantasy football leagues; except with huge variance. Every year the top 12 tight ends consists of six highly ranked players, and six late round players who came essentially out of nowhere.
In 2021, the tight end points leaders consisted of 6 of the first 10 tight ends drafted. Four of them were drafted in the TE 13-20 range (Ertz, Gesicki, Goedert, Henry), and two tight ends that were going largely undrafted altogether (Knox and Schultz).
What this tells us is that if we don’t get one of the elite five tight ends such as Kelce or Andrews, we need to wait until later in the draft for the Cole Kmet’s and Irv Smith’s of the world. Investing medium draft capital in middling tight ends is rarely a scenario where you will get a solid return on investment.
Rule #3- Don’t draft a D/ST or PK
I know what you’re thinking right now. if I have to start a defense and kicker why wouldn’t I draft one? I say this to you – sure. If your league drafts days before the season kicks off feel free to use your last two picks on kicker and defense, but nothing higher than that.
The rule here comes in when your fantasy football league drafts before – or – early in the preseason. If this is the case in your league, use these last two picks to stash running backs instead. Rookies can also be a great target here.
The method behind this is to draft a couple late round lottery tickets in case the starter on their respective team goes down from injury during the preseason; at which point you could have a potential league winner at almost no cost.
A scenario like this could produce the 2022 version of Eli Mitchell. If it doesn’t and your stashes haven’t gained value by the start of the season, you can quickly drop them and stream a defense and kicker based on weekly matchups until you find one to roll with for the year.
Rule #4- Anchor RB
Simple strategy here. Not much to see and pretty straight forward. In the first 2-3 rounds make sure to draft at least two solid and reliable running backs who will anchor your team for the entire season; preferably running backs who also catch a considerably number of passes.
After round 4, the well of running backs dries up and you are playing a dangerous game. Draft them early and hope they stay healthy.
Rule #5- Hammer WR in the Dead Zone
As I said above, round 4 is where the dependable running backs dry up, and you should be transitioning to wide receiver. Every year half of the top 12 wide receivers were drafted in this range. This is where we find the Cooper Kupp’s of the world.
Here I typically like to focus on Year 3/4 WRs in high scoring offenses who have a considerable target share with minimal competition; I’m thinking Michael Pittman this year.
Rule #6- Lottery Ticket Central
Once you get to the later rounds in your fantasy football draft, don’t waste your time drafting back up quarterbacks and tight ends. In a 12 team league, the waiver wire will have plenty of valuable replacements should you need one.
Instead of wasting these picks, use them on high upside receivers and running backs. A good strategy is to draft running backs and receivers in murky situations; when there are multiple options available for one team go with the cheaper option and hope to cash the ticket.
Another solid play in the late rounds is to look for rookies who produced at a high rate in college or tested off the charts in athleticism. These picks can take half a season to pay off but when they do they are league winners, see Ja”Marr Chase.
Rule #7- Rookie Patience
If you follow the second part of Rule 6, you are likely to start the season with a few rookies on the back end of your fantasy football roster. This is a great strategy loaded with upside, but the key to hitting on this strategy is patience.
Justin Jefferson was unplayable in his first four games, so if you didn’t have patience you likely dropped him for a waiver wire roster clogger and later regretted it. The other thing to consider when drafting rookies is to be mindful of the injured players you drafted.
If you drafted multiple players who are likely to miss the start of the season you are highly unlikely to be able to hold onto these rookies stashes. You will have to pick up players to replace the injured guys. Roster construction is key.
Rule #8- Know your Scoring Settings
This one is often over looked. You get a casual manager who plays in one family league that buys a fantasy football magazine with rankings and projections and they assume that those rankings carry over 1 for 1 into his new league.
This is often not the case; and the smallest of scoring or roster setting tweaks can greatly change rankings. Adding an extra quarterback moves all the QB’s up while going from Half-PPR to full PPR suddenly puts more emphasis on wide receivers and pass-catching backs early in the draft.
It seems simple, but read your settings thoroughly. Adjust your rankings and projections accordingly as they are not one size fits all.
Rule #9- Know Your League Mates
This one will be tough to judge if it’s your first year in a new fantasy football league, but it will come with time. Once you have drafted with the same people multiple times, or even drafted with the same scoring settings, you will start to notice trends emerge.
Make note of these trends and try to use them to your advantage. If your league waits on tight end, then wait even longer. My typical plan is to never be the first manager to draft a tight end or quarterback.
The other key is to know your level of competition, if you are playing in a home league with casual players who don’t do any research then doing mock drafts with expert ADP’s is going to be of little value to you. Instead, you need to know which players are likely to be over and under valued in your caliber of league.
Rule #10- Don’t Let a Run Panic You
It is a fact of fantasy football drafts that at some point a manager will draft the first player at a position and it will kick off a run at that position. You are even more susceptible to these runs if you are drafting at either turn of a round.
The key here is not to panic. If the run gets to you and there is still a player at that position that is of good value, go right ahead and draft him to continue the run. However, do not just draft a player at a certain position because you are afraid to miss out. It kills your value based drafting approach and will sandbag your team.
If you are on one of the turns and are afraid of missing out due to a run, try to plan a strategy a few rounds in advance to decide if you want to start the run or pass on it. Starting a run is okay. Over drafting a quarterback because you are afraid all of them will be gone is not okay.
There will always be other options. Have a plan but always be willing to pivot and take the value that the draft presents to you.
In Closing
For all you first time fantasy football managers out there, always make sure to have fun and be active. Research and preparation are wonderful. But if you aren’t active and enjoying your league, you are unlikely to last long in your league. In the end, always learn and improve.
Strategies and tactics change often and what works this year likely won’t a few years from now. Be bold and swing for the fences. No one remembers who finished 2nd, so as Ricky Bobby once said “If you’re not first, you’re last.”
