Welcome to this week’s edition of the Brows’ Buy, Sell, & Hold for fantasy football dynasty leagues. I will briefly walk you guys through a few players – or picks – and what I want to do with them based on their future outlook, production, or recent changes. This week, I am mostly focusing on running backs.
Buy: Antonio Gibson, Running Back – Washington Commanders
My buy this week is going to be a guy that I have been a massive fan of since he was drafted in 2020. Antonio Gibson has finished as an RB1 in two out of the three years that he has been in the NFL. His talents have been sorely underutilized in Washington. Fortunately, we have Eric Bieniemy recently hired on as their new offensive coordinator.
It looks like J.D. McKissic’s career is being threatened by his most recent neck injury. This opens up Gibson to be used in a potential McKinnon role of the offense that we saw in Kansas City during the 2022 season. In the past three seasons, Gibson averages 41 receptions per year. If they use him more in the passing game, he will be even more useful for fantasy purposes.
Antonio Gibson had a career high 353 receiving yards on a career high 46 receptions and it’s like none of you even care that he’s headed for the Jerick McKinnon role.
— Jack Cavanagh (@javanagh87) February 24, 2023
This buy can wait until after your fantasy football dynasty draft if you want to mitigate risk. There is a chance that Washington drafts someone or brings in a veteran via free agency. If not, I have high expectations for Gibson next season.
I would be comfortable paying his current price of a late 2023 2nd (2.08 or 2.09). If you do not like the rookie running backs in that range, then Gibson would be a great way to use those picks. There’s plenty of reasonable trades being made to acquire Gibson without much risk.
Sell: Alvin Kamara, Running Back – New Orleans Saints
This is a situation where I just want out. The more news that comes out about Alvin Kamara, the uglier the situation gets for him and his future outlook. An inevitable suspension is looming and whether it is four, six, eight games, or an entire season, I just don’t want to have to deal with it.
Kamara’s production has been declining for a few years now. The rushing opportunities and usage have stayed stagnant with a drop in touchdowns. The receiving opportunities are what is really hurting his fantasy production. He had 80 receptions in four straight seasons when he played with the dump-off king, Drew Brees. Ever since Drew Brees retired in 2021, we have seen a decline in usage in the passing game. This was Kamara’s specialty and why he was selected so high in fantasy drafts each year.
Kamara will be 28 by the start of the 2023 NFL season. I think the production cliff every running back sees in their career is on its way. I know that this is a sell-low moment. If you can get a better price than what I am looking for, by all means, go for it. I want to get out of any Kamara shares before the bottom drops out.
If I am selling Kamara this week, I would be ecstatic to get a ’23 1st for him, even if I had to send a 2nd with Kamara. Getting an early or a mid-second would be a more realistic return. You might be able to get more value if you package Kamara up with another player and use that to your advantage.
Hold: 2023 Second-round rookie picks
I am always a sucker for extra liquidity at this point in the off-season. Make sure that your roster is flexible as possible and without having a bunch of declining assets weighing you down. I am focusing on 2023 2nd round picks, but the same goes for the later picks in the rookie draft as well.
This rookie class is loaded with talented running backs. You are going to be able to scoop up a handful of these running backs in the second round. A couple I have seen currently are; Devon Achane (he will touch the late first-range post-NFL draft), Tank Bigsby, Kendre Miller, Zach Evans, Sean Tucker, or recent riser Roschon Johnson.
• 2023 Rookie Running Backs •
Below are the *early* results of my RB prospect model, which factors in exp. adjusted production, efficiency, athleticism, & projected draft capital
In the thread 🧵 below, I’ll add my thoughts + how this class compares to 2021 & 2022!
[1 of 7] pic.twitter.com/jbwUNTCyRv
— Marvin Elequin (@FF_MarvinE) February 3, 2023
These ADP’s will change over the offseason. Right now, these are all great values. If you need to retool at running back, this is the perfect draft for you. If you aren’t a fan of the rookie running backs, you can use the 2nds to go and buy another veteran that you feel comfortable investing in. It is much easier to trade picks than players.
We are holding these picks now because as we get closer to the rookie draft, the picks will only accrue value. Be flexible this time of year. Extra liquidity helps you do just that.
Conclusion
Thanks for joining me today. I hope my suggestions gave you some trade ideas and a quick view of how I am tackling some situations around the league. Everyone plays fantasy football dynasty leagues differently, so it is important to have an open mindset. Feel free to check out the rest of our dynasty content here. I am hoping to do this article weekly, so let me know who you are buying, selling, or holding via Twitter. Until next week!
Joe Arledge
Writer for The League Winners Fantasy Football and Faceoff Sports Network. University of Cincinnati Alumni.