Fantasy Football Dynasty: Brows’ Weekly Buy, Sell, & Hold 3.0

I’m back at you again with an edition of my Buy, Sell, and Hold article. Feel free to check out the other editions here. I wanted to wait until we were a little deeper into free agency to get a better picture of the fantasy football dynasty landscape. Without further ado, let’s get to it!

Buy: 2024 First-Round Picks

Every year, we say the next draft class is the better than the current one. Usually, we are wrong but ironically, if you dig deeper into the 2023 class, it isn’t looking as flashy as we first thought. Don’t get me wrong; I think it has excellent depth at tight end, running back, and four potential first-round quarterbacks.

If you have picks in the 1.08-1.12 range, I would advise trading those picks and for a random 2024 first. Trading later 1sts for next year’s 1st round picks is a savvy move to take advantage of the draft board and potentially upgrade the pick. Personally, I would do it closer to fantasy football rookie drafts, or even when you are on the clock.

The mindset is that if you don’t like any of the players in that range, you are just re-rolling the pick into the next draft class. I would try to target other managers in the middle of the first round this year. 

Fantasy football managers on the fringe of competing could easily bottom out, making their pick more valuable. Doing this gives you a slight chance that the pick will become an elite asset by this time next year. Pick a manager in your league, and if you are confident to bet against them, go for it.

In the worst-case scenario, you trade 2023 1.08 and end up with 2024 1.12. You wouldn’t be losing a lot of value, but you have an opportunity to gain a lot and get the chance to draft an elite young player this time next year.

Buy: K.J. Osborn

The recent news that the Vikings released Adam Thielen seemed like fresh air for K.J. Osborn. While the Vikings may add a wide receiver in the draft, buying Osborne is still intelligent.

He won’t be expensive, and could give you solid WR3 numbers throughout the 2023 season. If the Vikings don’t add any receivers in the draft or free agency, it would be wheels up for Osborn. This will be a great addition if you want depth with upside. This one is risky, but could pay off if the dominoes fall correctly.

Osborn was nearly as consistent as Thielen with less playing time. Give him more opportunities, and he will produce. Buy him cheap now and wait and see if the Vikings make additions.

Sell: Derek Carr

There is always a value bump when an average quarterback signs a deal with a new team in free agency. Just look at Carson Wentz, Philip Rivers, Matt Ryan, Mitch Trubisky, and Baker Mayfield in years prior.

I love this move for Chris Olave and Michael Thomas – if he is still in New Orleans to start the 2023 season. Carr will be the same guy he was in Las Vegas. For that, I want to move on from him in fantasy football leagues. 

My goal would be to flip him into a younger, unproven player and a pick. Moves that I would be adding Carr to would be a late 1st/early 2nd to move into the 1.02 – 1.04 range for the 2023 draft. You could also move Carr for a contributor at another position. Depending on roster construction, I would target Dallas Geodert, Miles Sanders, or Diontae Johnson in Superflex leagues.

I don’t think Carr takes a step forward with the Saints. He has finished as a top-12 quarterback just once in his career. Carr’s signing is an excellent opportunity to move him and compile assets. If you have Carr as your QB1 or QB2 in a Superflex league, you likely have more significant issues on your roster. 

Sell: Darren Waller

We recently saw Darren Waller get traded to the New York Giants. It is trending that Waller will be the first or second receiving option for Daniel Jones. Jones only threw for 15 touchdowns last season, and the Giants added three slot-based receivers like Waller.

I’m projecting that Waller’s best days are behind him. Waller turns 31 during the 2023 season and hasn’t played an entire season in two years. Now is an excellent opportunity to move on from Waller due to the slight value increase. I would make this move before the draft, because it’s possible that the Giants draft an alpha wide receiver to pair with Waller and the other receiving options. 

Instead, I’m targeting younger tight ends, or a ’23 2nd to draft another tight end or a running back. This class has a lot of depth in those positions. 

If he is your only tight end option, I understand wanting to hold onto him. If you have a seemingly better option, it would be a great time to tier down and get out if the price is correct before it is too late. 

Hold: Justin Fields

This blurb would be a great place to insert the Paul Rudd “Look at us” meme. Recently, the Chicago Bears and Carolina Panthers conducted a massive trade, including the first overall selection in this upcoming NFL draft. Feel free to check out the fantasy implications here.

Fields got his projected WR1 in the above trade, with D.J. Moore. While I don’t think Moore is on the same elite level as A.J. Brown and Stefon Diggs, it is easy to see the parallels. 

The Bears made a great move to secure Moore for Fields. As a Fields shareholder, you get to reap all the benefits. We are all hoping Fields takes the next step like Hurts and Allen. Fields’ passing efficiency could have been better in the last two years, and this provides some optimism that betters days are coming.

It will be interesting to see what the Bears do in the draft. I hope they secure the offensive line to protect their QB1. If you have Fields shares, I encourage you to hold them; his value should increase.

Hold: Lamar Jackson

We await the Ravens’ decision to pay Lamar Jackson or trade him away. As a fantasy football manager with Jackson on your roster, all you can do for now is hold him. I have seen people move on from Jackson for less than I would consider.

Especially in Superflex leagues, I’d hold on to him because he is still an elite option at the quarterback position. As a Jackson manager, you have to hope he lands somewhere that can utilize his unique skill set and surround him with appropriate weapons. Lamar is too valuable to move at a discount while we wait for the Ravens’ decision. Just have to hold on and wait.

Conclusion

That wraps up this edition of Buy, Sell, and Hold. I hope you found some of this information helpful enough to impact any decision you make about the players above. It is always great to have more input regarding moves like this. Let me know on Twitter who you plan on moving before the NFL draft. Until next time!

Joe Arledge

Writer for The League Winners Fantasy Football and Faceoff Sports Network. University of Cincinnati Alumni.