Fantasy Football Dynasty: Buy, Sell, & Hold – AFC East Edition

A division once dominated by the Tom Brady-led Patriots, now has a new team on top. Josh Allen and the Bills are arguably the best offense in the league. You want pieces of that offence on your fantasy football dynasty teams. The Miami Dolphins have flashed this year, but need to focus on the health and well-being of Tua moving forward. This might put a damper on what was looking like a fantasy gold mine. The Jets have a healthy Zach Wilson back; and although he didn’t do much his first game back, the running backs both had good games. Breece Hall was a machine! I think things are looking up for the Jets. That leaves the New England Patriots. Things haven’t been the same since Brady left town, but Mac Jones was the best rookie QB last year. He will look to help turn things around with this offense once he returns from his injury. You can’t count out Old Bill and the Patriots; they’re just hard to trust fantasy assets right now. 

Buy

Mac Jones – QB – New England Patriots

Mac Jones finished last year as the QB18 in fantasy football, averaging 14 fantasy points per game. Many would argue he was the best rookie QB last year, leading the Patriots to a 10-7 record. He completed 67% of his passes and threw for 22 TDs. Fantasy wise, he had seven games with multiple TDs, but six games where he didn’t reach double digit points.

It’s been a rough start for the sophomore QB in 2022. He threw three INTs in Week 3 against the Ravens. In Week 1 he didn’t reach double digit points, and in Week 2 he was QB18 with 13.68 points. He was injured late in the game against the Ravens and has been out since. I expect him to bounce back when he is healthy. 

The Patriots don’t have an alpha WR, but instead a ragtag group that all have different strengths. They also have the run game with Stevenson and Harris (when healthy) to take the pressure off Jones. The defense is strong enough to shut the door and create turnovers on a regular basis. Josh McDaniels is not around anymore, but look for Old Bill to right the ship on offense. 

It is rare for a young QBs value to dip below a 1st round pick in fantasy football superflex leagues. But according to KTC, his value is right around an early 2023 2nd. Now is the time to strike while he is injured. Jones is not the dual threat QB that is going to score big games. However, he is the perfect QB3 in superflex leagues. Someone you can put in during bye weeks and when injuries happen. He won’t ever be a top 12 guy, but instead sit in the QB 13-18 range for his career. 

Honorable Mention

Khalil Shakir – WR – Buffalo Bills

Shakir showed well in his first real game; mind you it was against the Steelers. He filled in for the injured Isaiah Mckenzie and Jamison Crowder in Week 5, and was the WR13. He caught three of his five targets for 75 yards and a TD. 

Shakir is currently valued around an early 2023 third. Contending or rebuilding, Shakir is worth an add at the price. His future is bright as the slot guy for Josh Allen. I’d prefer to add to my taxi if possible, because I do think Mckenzie is the starter for at least this year. 

Contender Buys

Isaiah McKenzie – WR – Buffalo Bills

These next two players are must buys in fantasy football PPR leagues. Isaiah Mckenzie’s role was increasing before he went down with a concussion in Week 4. Jamison Crowder is out indefinitely and Shakir is still a rookie. This is the same Bills coaching staff that played Emmanuel Sanders over Gabe Davis last season. I expect Mckenzie to have the full time slot role for the remainder of the year. Shakir will see some work, but not enough to threaten consistent fantasy production from Mckenzie. He is currently priced around an early 2023 3rd.

Jakobi Meyers – WR – New England Patriots

Meyers is currently averaging 9 targets per game. He might not be an “alpha” WR, but he is getting the job done. Last year he was WR33 in Half-PPR leagues, while scoring only 1 TD. This year he is already averaging 14.3 points per game, and again only has 1 TD. Despite missing two games, he is the WR40 in fantasy football this year. He is valued around a late 2023 2nd, which is a steal for his production. Meyers makes a perfect WR3, who can put up WR2 numbers. 

Sell

Devin Singletary – RB – Buffalo Bills

Singletary’s value is set to start declining quickly. For starters, his contract is up at the end of the year. I doubt the Bills pay him after drafting James Cook highly last year. If he is not tied to the Bills offense, he isn’t worth having. There is a strong RB rookie class coming in, so jobs are going to be hard to find on the open market. 

He currently only has one game scoring double digit points. It was Week 4 against Miami, where he saw a rare 11 targets. 49 rushing yards is his best rushing output to date. Somehow, this guy is still valued around a late 2023 2nd. If you can get a 2nd for him, do it now. He is at best a flex play most weeks, but next year will be in a backup role. 

There are rumours swirling of a potential Christian McCaffery trade to the Bills. Hard to say if it will happen, but I wouldn’t want to be holding Singletary if it does. 

Honorable Mention

Tua Tagovailoa – QB – Miami Dolphins

If you have any doubt that Tua will retire, now is your time to sell him. We have seen a number of star players over the last few years hang up their cleats due to head injuries. It was a scary scene back in Week 4. Thankfully, things seem to be pointing in the right direction for him to return at some point. 

With his play early in the year, he shot up fantasy football dynasty rankings and is currently QB11 on KTC. If you are selling out now, you are getting decent value compared to last year and all offseason. The Dolphins have surrounded him with weapons. He has a chance to continue to climb, if and when he comes back. I hope the Dolphins take their time with him and allow him to heal. 

If you have Tua, putting him on the block and seeing what kind of offers come in isn’t a bad idea. Don’t sell just to sell, but the future is a little unknown right now. 

Peak Value Sell

Stefon Diggs – WR – Buffalo Bills

Hear me out! He is currently WR4 on KTC, and rightly so. He is averaging 20.1 points per game. However, he is also 28 years old. The time to sell for peak value is now. Look at both Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams. They are averaging around 17 points per game, yet are down at WR13 and 15. Yes, they are not tied to Josh Allen, but their age also plays into it. Diggs is behind Jefferson, Chase, and Kupp. He isn’t going to rise above the top two because of age and Kupp brings more consistency. 

If you are contending you likely aren’t selling. But if you are 0-5 or 1-4, now might be the time to pivot off of him and collect a king’s ransom! 

Hold

James Cook – RB – Buffalo Bills

James Cook is currently valued around a mid 2023 second. The Bills drafted him in the second round after his four years at Georgia. He shared the backfield with Zamir White his SR year; but still put up 728 rushing yards, 285 receiving yards, and 11 total TDs. 

He has taken a backseat to Singletary this year. As mentioned earlier, the Bills tend to favour veterans. Therefore, Cook will slowly be worked in. Fumbling on your first touch doesn’t set the best tone. However, Singletary is in his final year of his contract, while Zack Moss has one more year. 

The CMC rumours are worrisome, but the Bills would have a hard time fitting his salary next season. The way that it is structured it would only be just over a million cap hit this year. However, it would jump significantly in 2023 if he wasn’t released or had it restructured. 

Hold Cook. I think we see a value increase next year once Singletary is out of the way. Like CEH, fantasy football managers might need to be patient. He is a highly drafted RB on a high flying offense. The potential is there. There is risk though, as no Bills RB has finished higher than RB20 since Josh Allen took over.  

Honorable Mentions

Elijah Moore – WR – New York Jets

Rough start for Moore fans; he is averaging 5.6 points per game. Let’s see what happens now with Zach Wilson back. He is currently WR36 on KTC. That is fair with the way things have gone so far this year. There are a lot of mouths to feed in this offense. Don’t panic sell, he has the talent to be a consistent top 36 producer.

Last year he averaged 10.6 points per game in 11 games. In Weeks 7-13 he was the WR4 in fantasy football, averaging 15.2 points per game. Give this offense a chance to gel with Wilson back.

Mike Gesicki – TE – Miami Dolphins and Hunter Henry – TE – New England Patriots

Hunter Henry finished as the TE9 last year and Gesicki as the TE11. These were two guys that I predicted would fall this year in my TE rankings this offseason. Mike Gesicki has to compete for targets with the likes of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. While Hunter Henry scored a huge number of TDs last year, that is tough to repeat. Gesicki signed the franchise tag, meaning he can move on at the end of the year. Hunter Henry has one more year on his contract.

The TE position is a guessing game, with only a few consistent producers. That makes them tough buys, but their value is quite low right now. Gesicki might be worth a buy at only 27 years old. He could have a fresh start elsewhere next year. However, where does he go? Hunter Henry could become a red zone target again, but the Patriots need to start producing. He is 29 and has an injury history. You aren’t getting much for him if you sell and he’s not producing anything to warrant a buy.